Could US involvement pull more countries into the Israel-Iran war?

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2 days ago

After the US attack on Iran, speculation has turned to Iran's most powerful allies — Russia and China — and how they might respond.
China has denounced the US strikes as "a dangerous turning point" and Russia has warned of nuclear risks, yet both have avoided direct military intervention so far.
The two nuclear-armed nations have used a UN Security Council meeting on Monday to call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war.
Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly vowed to enact "a response" against the US, prompting concern that it will retaliate against US military bases hosted in neighbouring Arab countries.
Here's an updated look at the key alliances in the Israel-Iran war and how they might come into play.
Russia, China unlikely to use force
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — or "CRINK" for short — have become increasingly supportive of each other as part of an informal alliance that seeks to challenge the US-led world order.
Unlike the Western NATO alliance, there is no formal agreement between the CRINK countries to come to each other's help in a crisis and their responses so far suggest they will not intervene militarily in the Israel-Iran war.
Rather, China and Russia have renewed their calls for a diplomatic solution after strongly condemning US involvement.
"We're unlikely to see global countries like China and Russia get involved, unless it's to supply weapons," says Mohammed Alsudairi, a lecturer in politics and international relations at the Australian National University who specialises in China's ties with Arabic-speaking countries.
"But even then, their likelihood of supplying weapons is quite low."
Click on the cards below to read more on how global allies have aligned themselves with Iran.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has secured a third leadership term. ( Reuters: Jason Lee )
Iran has a primarily economic relationship with China, which is one of Iran's largest sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil.
But Dr Alsudairi says China has little appetite to be embroiled in the region's conflicts.
"At best, the Middle East is of third or fourth-tier strategic importance to China," he says.
"China has already obtained a lot of what it needs through its existing relationships in the region. It doesn't need to embed itself in architectures of security."
Like Russia, China has positioned itself as a peace broker between Iran and Israel after denouncing the US strikes as a violation of international law.
"China calls on the parties to the conflict, Israel in particular, to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible, ensure the safety of civilians and start dialogue and negotiation," a foreign ministry spokesperson said.
"China stands ready to work with the international community to pool efforts together and uphold justice, and work for restoring peace and stability in the Middle East." Russia pushes for diplomacy Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a delegation to Istanbul for peace talks with Ukraine. ( Reuters: Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov )
Russia and Iran are long-term allies whose security relationship has deepened in recent years with the supply of Iranian drones for Russia's own war against Ukraine.
The country has strongly condemned the US strikes on Iran, calling them "irresponsible" and a violation of international law.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Monday that he would hold "serious consultations" with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
"Russia is a friend of Iran and we enjoy a strategy partnership, and we always consult with each other and coordinate our positions," he said.
It is not clear yet what will come out of this meeting, though we know Russia has been pushing for diplomacy after offering to mediate between Israel and Iran.
"We call for an end to aggression and for increased efforts to create conditions for returning the situation to a political and diplomatic track," Russia's foreign ministry said in an earlier statement on Sunday.
Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst focused on Iran at the US Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says even if Russia wanted to offer Iran military support, it would not have the material capacity.
"[Russia has] been reliant on Iranian drones and missiles so it's not necessarily in a position to weigh in on another conflict, given the war in Ukraine is not really going to their plan," he says. Pakistan breaks ranks
Pakistan is the only Muslim country in the world with a recognised nuclear weapons program.
While it is a long-time US ally, Pakistan broke ranks by condemning the strikes ordered by President Donald Trump.
At the UN Security Council meeting on Monday, Pakistan joined Russia and China in saying the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities "violate all norms of international law" and that diplomacy was the only way to resolve the war.
"We are gravely concerned," Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in an earlier statement on Sunday.
"The unprecedented escalation of tension and violence, owing to ongoing aggression against Iran, is deeply disturbing. Any further escalation of tensions will have severely damaging implications for the region and beyond."
Also on Sunday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif telephoned Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to "convey Pakistan's condemnation of the US attacks", a statement from the Pakistani leader said.
Yet the day before, Pakistan had said it was nominating Mr Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in bringing a four-day conflict with India to an end last month.
It said on Saturday he had "demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship".
Pakistan's information minister and the foreign ministry did not respond to Reuters requests for comment on the apparent contradiction in the country's positions over the weekend.
Meanwhile, in Pakistan's largest city, Karachi, thousands marched in protest against the US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
A large American flag with a picture of Mr Trump on it was placed on the road for demonstrators to walk over.
The protesters shouted out chants against America, Israel and Pakistan's regional enemy, India. North Korea on the periphery Kim Jong Un has ruled North Korea since 2011. ( KCNA via Reuters )
Iran and North Korea have long been reported to share missile technology and nuclear research.
But there has been no indication so far that North Korea will get involved in the Israel-Iran war.
A press statement released by the country's foreign ministry on June 20 condemned Israel's initial strikes on Iran as a "crime against humanity".
"The present grave situation witnessed by the world clearly proves that Israel … is a cancer-like entity for peace in the Middle East and the chief culprit in destroying global peace and security," the statement said.
"The international community is strictly watching the US and Western forces fanning up the flames of war, taking issue with the legitimate sovereign right and exercise of the right to self-defence of Iran."
North Korea reiterated its condemnation following the US strikes against Iran on Monday.
So how might Iran retaliate?
Iran has spent decades propping up militant groups across the Middle East, forming its so-called "Axis of Resistance", which it could potentially activate to strike US military bases in the region.
This network of Iranian "proxies" includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, some armed groups in Iraq and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank.
But over the past two years, Iran's regional allies have been dealt some severe blows, with Israel significantly degrading Hezbollah and Hamas's fighting capabilities.
According to Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst focused on Iran at the US Foundation for Defense of Democracies, that leaves the Islamic Republic largely on its own.
"However, we might see Iraqi militias that are backed by Tehran attack US bases as they have recently escalated their threats against US interests in the region," he said.
Iran could also still call on the Houthis, who had threatened to resume their attacks in the Red Sea — a crucial global trade route — if the US entered the war.
Both the Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthi rebels have the drone and missile capabilities that would allow them to target the US and its allies in the region.
Click on the cards below to read more about how Iran's regional allies are responding.
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem vowed retaliation for recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon would be carried out in central Tel Aviv. ( Reuters: Al Manar TV )
Hezbollah has long been considered Iran's first line of defence in case of a war with Israel, but the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the latest conflict.
At one point, Hezbollah was believed to have around 150,000 rockets and missiles, and its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, once claimed to have 100,000 fighters.
The group was drawn into a full-scale war with Israel last September after it tried to help its ally, Hamas, fight off Israel's offensive in Gaza, which was sparked by the Palestinian militants' October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel.
A daring attack by Israel, which involved remotely detonating pagers and walkie-talkies armed with explosives that had been distributed to Hezbollah members, killed key members of the armed group as well as some civilians.
While a US-brokered ceasefire halted the Israel-Hezbollah conflict last November, Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and carries out near-daily air strikes.
Hezbollah's current leader, Naim Qassem, has condemned Israel's attacks on Iran and offered condolences for the senior Iranian officers who were killed.
But Qassem did not suggest Hezbollah would take part in any retaliation against Israel.
According to Ian Parmeter, a Middle East scholar at the Australian National University (ANU) and a former Australian ambassador to Lebanon, Hezbollah is still reeling from its losses.
"Hezbollah has been very badly degraded, and Iran hasn't been able to resupply it with rockets and missiles," Mr Parmeter says.
"So Hezbollah is not able to create a diversionary attack on Iran's behalf."
Still, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, told the Associated Press a role for the militant group in the Israel-Iran conflict should not be ruled out.
"This depends on political and field developments," he said. "Anything is possible." Iran-backed: Iraqi militias show solidarity The US launched strikes against the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah. ( Reuters: Thaier al-Sudani )
Unlike Hezbollah, whose military wing has operated as a non-state actor in Lebanon, the main Iraqi militias are members of a coalition that is officially part of the state defence forces.
For their part in Iran's "axis", the Iraqi militias have occasionally struck bases housing US troops in Iraq and Syria.
One of these militias, Kataib Hezbollah, said it was "deeply regrettable" that Israel allegedly fired at Iran from Iraqi airspace in the last week.
The armed group called on the Iraqi government to "urgently expel hostile forces from the country," which is a reference to US troops in Iraq, but it made no threat of force.
Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the British think tank Chatham House, told the Associated Press that Iraq's militias did not want to pull their country into a major conflict.
"Things in Iraq are good for them right now, they're connected to the state — they're benefiting politically, economically," Dr Mansour said.
"They've seen what's happened to Iran, to Hezbollah, and they're concerned that Israel will turn on them as well." Iran-backed: Houthis still attacking The strike was the third US attack on Houthi targets in Yemen in recent days. ( AP Photo )
The Houthis remain the only Iran-backed group still firing missiles at Israel as part of a campaign that began with the Gaza war in solidarity with Palestinians.
"Triumphing for the oppressed Palestinian and Iranian peoples … This operation was coordinated with the operations carried out by the Iranian army," a military spokesperson said after targeting central Israel's Jaffa.
The Houthis are mountain fighters who have been battling Saudi-led forces for control of Yemen in what is widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
They have been the de facto government in north Yemen since a 2022 ceasefire.
The group has a large arsenal of armed drones and ballistic missiles, largely supplied by Iran, which it has previously used to fire at ships in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route.
But the ANU's Mr Parmeter says the Houthis are too geographically removed to strategically harm Israel beyond the rebels' sporadic missile attacks.
"Yemen is certainly supported by Iran, but it's too far away to be able to do much damage to Israel," he says.
The US has thwarted most of the previous attacks and carried out retaliatory strikes with Israel on Houthi bases.
Iran's retaliation often to 'save face'
The US has around 40,000 troops currently stationed in the Middle East, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to the Council of Foreign Relations.
These bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defences as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones.
Even Israel, which is several hundred kilometres further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire.
Iran could also choose to target key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for US involvement in the war.
A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran — briefly cut the kingdom's oil production in half.
In a similar vein, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial choke point for oil shipping.
"What we have seen so far with Iran's retaliation is, it's oftentimes in a timely manner. However, it's usually contained," Mr Sayeh says.
For example, he says when Mr Trump ordered in 2019 the assassination of Iran's top commander, Qasem Soleimani, Iran called ahead to make sure the US base it would target in Iraq was evacuated to avoid further escalation.
"Usually, the retaliation has been just to save face domestically in front of their support base. What is likely to happen right now — and it is in their best interest — is they will take their losses and continue their attacks against Israel."