Scattered storms expected to end weekend. Here's how Hurricane Erin could impact Pittsburgh's forecast this week.
After a high of 91 degrees on Saturday, temperatures remained very warm through the overnight hours with most spots hovering in the mid-60s to low 70s through Sunday morning. Moisture levels are also higher ahead of a weak cold front that will bring a scattering of showers and storms to western Pennsylvania mid-morning through early afternoon.
Radar shows a cluster of thunderstorms moving across Lake Erie before sunrise. This will likely pass through some of our I-80 counties and possibly as far south as Route 422 from just after sunrise through 10-11 a.m. The actual cold front still lags well behind Michigan and Wisconsin and will not arrive in our area until 1-2 p.m. With the front arriving at peak heating, additional widely scattered storms are likely to develop and affect our area from 1-7 p.m.
The highest coverage, in which there will still be gaps where many spots will not see a drop of rain, will be from the Pittsburgh metro and east into the Laurel Highlands and northeast toward I-80 and Route 422 where low-level winds converge better and lift will be stronger. All of western Pennsylvania/northern West Virginia still have a low-medium chance of receiving precipitation today.
Northerly flow behind the front will allow slightly cooler air to move in on Monday morning with lows generally in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Some patchy fog is possible around daybreak before skies clear up and remain mostly sunny. Temperatures will reach the low 80s for most spots which is close to normal for this time of year.
The biggest changes to the forecast come for the middle part of the week, and most of these changes have to do with a slight shift in Hurricane Erin's intensity and path. Hurricane Erin underwent extremely rapid intensification on Saturday -- far more than any models projected and continues to remain a Category 3-4 hurricane as of Sunday morning due north of Puerto Rico.
When Erin underwent rapid intensification, the center of circulation ended up tracking much farther west with little deviation to the north. A turn to the north is still expected early this week, but with this turn being delayed and pushed farther west, trends are increasing for Hurricane Erin to track slightly closer -- albeit NOT make landfall -- on the U.S. East Coast. With Erin expected to track farther west than previously expected, the midweek cold front and trough of low pressure that was originally supposed to bring us storms and a stronger cold front Tuesday into Wednesday has been pushed back some in time and has also trended weaker.
With that being the case, KDKA First Alert Meteorologist Trey Fulbright has temporarily lowered precipitation (not completely eradicated) chances Tuesday and Wednesday to account for this adjustment and raised temperatures. So mid-80s are expected now for the middle part of the week, followed by a rebound to upper 80s by the end of the week.
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