Breakingviews - Markets' Trump truce is on ever-shakier ground
Equities have come a long way since April 2, when the president's so-called reciprocal tariffs sent the S&P 500 Index (.SPX), opens new tab down about 10% in a week. Stocks quickly bounced back and then set records, boosted by the idea that Trump would always chicken out, known as the TACO trade.
That theory is crumbling. Thursday's assault raised the average U.S. levy on imports to about 20% – not far off the April 2 level of 22%, Société Générale economists reckon. Canada, Switzerland and others saw their scheduled duties spike. Yet S&P 500 futures fell just 1% before U.S. markets opened, which would still leave the benchmark about a quarter above its April nadir.
There are some good reasons for the nonchalance. Some levies, like India's 25% rate, may yet come down. The new package may just be a last-minute ploy to maximise pressure on trading partners before striking deals. And the most damaging scenario – a global trade war – looks unlikely given key trading partners like Europe and Japan have agreed deals without retaliation. Lastly, even if tariffs are now a reality, looser fiscal policy in the U.S. and Germany means there is more money sloshing around two of the world's biggest economies, helping short-term growth.
Yet the full brunt of the tariff war is still only starting to emerge, and the final implementation of the global levies is due next week. Core U.S. goods inflation was a reassuring 2.4% in July, yet price rises may have been kept lower by importers bringing in more goods ahead of the duties. Analysts at Pictet reckon the impact will become more apparent in August and September. They note that surveys point to between 60% and 80% of U.S. firms planning price increases over the next three months. That may squeeze consumer confidence, hurting growth.
Higher U.S. inflation may also make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut. That will fuel tensions with Trump, who has a $1.9-trillion deficit to fund this year and wants lower rates. The more the administration attacks Chair Jerome Powell, the more bond markets will fret over wayward fiscal policy and higher inflation, driving up long-term borrowing costs and hitting asset prices.
Nor can the rest of the world rest easy. As other countries face more obstacles selling the $3.3 trillion of goods shipped into the United States annually, they will need to find alternative markets, driving down prices elsewhere and hurting rival exporters. Governments like Britain and France can't afford to offset the hit, given stretched budgets. In other words, the full pain of Trump's global tariff onslaught may still be coming.
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Reuters
3 hours ago
- Reuters
'No deal until there's a deal': Trump-Putin talks yield no breakthrough on Ukraine
ANCHORAGE, Alaska, Aug 15 (Reuters) - A highly anticipated summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday yielded no agreement to resolve or pause Moscow's war in Ukraine, though both leaders described the talks as productive. During a brief appearance before the media following the nearly three-hour meeting in Alaska, the two leaders said they had made progress on unspecified issues. But they offered no details and took no questions, with the normally loquacious Trump ignoring shouted questions from reporters. "We've made some headway," Trump said, standing in front of a backdrop that read, "Pursuing Peace." "There's no deal until there's a deal," he added. The talks did not initially appear to have produced meaningful steps toward a ceasefire in the deadliest conflict in Europe in 80 years, a goal Trump had set ahead of the summit. But simply sitting down face-to-face with the U.S. president represented a victory for Putin, who had been ostracized by Western leaders since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Following the summit, Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity that he would hold off on imposing tariffs on China for buying Russian oil after making progress with Putin. He has targeted India, another major buyer of Russian crude, with an additional 25% tariff on U.S. imports. "Because of what happened today, I think I don't have to think about that now," Trump said of Chinese tariffs. "I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don't have to think about that right now." Trump has also threatened sanctions on Moscow but has thus far not followed through, even after Putin ignored a Trump-imposed ceasefire deadline earlier this month. In the Fox News interview, Trump also suggested a meeting would now be set up between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, which he might also attend. He gave no further details on who was organizing the meeting or when it might be. Putin made no mention of meeting Zelenskiy when speaking to reporters earlier. He said he expected Ukraine and its European allies to accept the results of the U.S.-Russia negotiation constructively and not try to "disrupt the emerging progress." He also repeated Moscow's long-held position that what Russia claims to be the "root causes" of the conflict must be eliminated to reach a long-term peace, a sign he remains resistant to a ceasefire. There was no immediate reaction from Kyiv to the summit, the first meeting between Putin and a U.S. president since the war began. When asked by Hannity what he would advise Zelenskiy, Trump said, "Gotta make a deal." "Look, Russia is a very big power, and they're not," Trump added. The war has killed or injured well over a million people from both sides, including thousands of mostly Ukrainian civilians, according to analysts. Zelenskiy has ruled out formally handing Moscow any territory and is also seeking a security guarantee backed by the United States. Trump said he would call Zelenskiy and NATO leaders to update them on the Alaska talks. As the two leaders were talking, the war raged on, with most eastern Ukrainian regions under air raid alerts. Governors of Russia's Rostov and Bryansk regions reported that some of their territories were under Ukrainian drone attacks. Ukraine's opposition lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko said on the Telegram messaging app, "It seems Putin has bought himself more time. No ceasefire or de-escalation has been agreed upon." The anticlimactic end to the closely watched summit was in stark contrast to the pomp and circumstance with which it began. When Putin arrived at an Air Force base in Alaska, a red carpet awaited him, where Trump greeted Putin warmly as U.S. military aircraft flew overhead. Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court, accused of the war crime of deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. Russia denies the allegations, and the Kremlin has dismissed the ICC warrant as null and void. Russia and the United States are not members of the court. The day before the summit, Putin held out the prospect of something Trump wants - a new nuclear arms control agreement to replace the last surviving one, which is due to expire in February. It was unclear if the issue was discussed on Friday. Zelenskiy, who was not invited to Alaska, and his European allies had feared Trump might sell out Ukraine by essentially freezing the conflict and recognizing - if only informally - Russian control over one-fifth of Ukraine. Trump had sought to assuage such concerns on Friday ahead of the talks, saying he would let Ukraine decide on any possible territorial concessions. "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine, I'm here to get them at a table," he said. Asked what would make the meeting a success, he told reporters: "I want to see a ceasefire rapidly ... I'm not going to be happy if it's not today ... I want the killing to stop." The meeting also included U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Trump's special envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff; Russian foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov; and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Trump, who said during his presidential campaign that he would end the Ukraine war within 24 hours, conceded on Thursday it had proven a tougher task than he had expected. He had said if Friday's talks went well, quickly arranging a second, three-way summit with Zelenskiy would be more important than his encounter with Putin. Trump ended his remarks on Friday by telling Putin, "I'd like to thank you very much, and we'll speak to you very soon and probably see you again very soon." "Next time in Moscow," Putin responded. Trump said he might "get a little heat on that one" but that he could "possibly see it happening." Zelenskiy said ahead of Friday's summit that the meeting should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks that included him, but added that Russia was continuing to wage war. "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram.
Reuters
3 hours ago
- Reuters
Trump says no imminent plans to penalize China for buying Russian oil
WASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil but might have to "in two or three weeks." Trump has threatened sanctions on Moscow and secondary sanctions on countries that buy its oil if no moves are made to end the war in Ukraine. China and India are the top two buyers of Russian oil. The president last week imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing its continued imports of Russian oil. However, Trump has not taken similar action against China. He was asked by Fox News' Sean Hannity if he was now considering such action against Beijing after he and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to produce an agreement to resolve or pause Moscow's war in Ukraine. "Well, because of what happened today, I think I don't have to think about that," Trump said after his summit with Putin in Alaska. "Now, I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don't have to think about that right now. I think, you know, the meeting went very well." Chinese President Xi Jinping's slowing economy will suffer if Trump follows through on a promise to ramp up Russia-related sanctions and tariffs. Xi and Trump are working on a trade deal that could lower tensions - and import taxes - between the world's two biggest economies. But China could be the biggest remaining target, outside of Russia, if Trump ramps up punitive measures.
Reuters
5 hours ago
- Reuters
Investors react to US-Russia summit reaching no agreement
NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - A highly anticipated summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday yielded no agreement to resolve or pause Moscow's war in Ukraine, despite both leaders describing the talks in Alaska as productive. During a brief appearance before the media following the nearly three-hour talks, the two leaders said they had made progress on unspecified issues. But they offered no details and took no questions, with the normally loquacious Trump ignoring shouted questions from reporters. "There were many, many points that we agreed on. I would say a couple of big ones that we haven't quite got there, but we've made some headway," Trump said, standing in front of a backdrop that read, "Pursuing Peace." COMMENTS: HELIMA CROFT, GLOBAL HEAD OF COMMODITY STRATEGY AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK: "It seems to be the scenario that we anticipated in our note. Soundbites signaling diplomatic progress but few concrete deal specifics. We will watching to see whether the 'too be continued' outcome is enough to table the secondary sanctions on India for continuing to import Russian oil. Certainly will fall short of anything that will convince the Europeans to consider vacating their Russian energy sanctions." CAROL SCHLEIF, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, BMO PRIVATE WEALTH, MINNEAPOLIS: "The only news was absolutely no news out of it. Not sure there will be any market impactful portions - geopolitical issues in general do not tend to preoccupy market attention for very long if at all." "Markets are at new highs despite this conflict going on for three years. Markets care more about consumers, inflation and commentary from Wyoming next week." ERIC TEAL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, COMERICA, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA: "The fact that there were no economic sanctions is a positive and markets should breathe a sigh of relief, but it doesn't appear as though a deal is in hand." "If anything, we see opportunity in the energy sector, as oil prices are at pretty low levels here and the prospect of sanctions on oil did not bear out. There could be a relief rally and that would be an opportunity to invest in energy as we head into higher seasonal demands and economic growth beginning to re-accelerate." "Gold and precious metals are likely to sell off because of being an asset class good for safety. Given concerns about inflation, they are a good buying point as well if any weakness." EUGENE EPSTEIN, HEAD OF TRADING AND STRUCTURED PRODUCTS, NORTH AMERICA, MONEYCORP, NEW JERSEY: "I don't think anybody expected it to be particularly specific or substantive. It's essentially a first step towards potentially something more. They both kind of said everything diplomatically. But it's more about the significance of the meeting as a whole, as opposed to the content of what they're saying." "Again, I don't think anybody really expected them to suddenly within a couple of hours come up with a very specific set of plans or any kind of blueprint to something. It basically was just showing their willingness to have continued talks to arrive at a conclusion that is beneficial for all parties. And I think this is just the first steps, and many more to come." "Basically, President Trump needs to go back to the European Union and relay what Putin has said. And then he's got to negotiate with Zelenskiy. For the most part, I think they've laid the groundwork for a deal. And my feeling is that it will probably get done, but there's probably a couple more steps. I'm thinking one of those steps will be Trump, Putin and Zelinski all meeting in the next month." "They will probably reach a deal in 30 days. I was kind of surprised that they didn't take any questions. So there's a little bit of disappointment in that, but until a deal is done, you can't really take any questions." "Overall, the markets will like it marginally because I think they've made some progress. But I don't think we will be up 400 points in Dow futures on Sunday night." MICHAEL ASHLEY SCHULMAN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, RUNNING POINT, EL SEGUNDO, CALIFORNIA: "At this point, it has been three years into the war, so it really shouldn't have much effect. I think markets will take it as status quo, but I think there's only upside from here." JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA: "Without Ukraine at the table, there was little chance for a peace accord. That Putin attended at all was significant, but he can't be seen ending the conflict while on American soil meeting with Trump."
