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War, geopolitics, energy crisis: how the economy evades every disaster

War, geopolitics, energy crisis: how the economy evades every disaster

Economist16-07-2025
After Adolf Hitler's troops rolled into France in 1940, many feared the imminent destruction of Europe and its economy. British investors did not. In the year following the invasion, London's stockmarket rose; indeed, by the end of hostilities, British companies had delivered real returns to shareholders of 100%. The plucky investors must have seemed mad at the time, but they were proved right and made handsome profits.
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UK and India to sign trade deal during Modi state visit
UK and India to sign trade deal during Modi state visit

ITV News

time29 minutes ago

  • ITV News

UK and India to sign trade deal during Modi state visit

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state visit to the UK will see the signing of a landmark free trade deal. It is expected to see £6 billion invested into the UK economy and create 2,200 jobs, making it the largest deal of its kind for economic impact on Britain. Tariffs on a range of British goods will be reduced from an average of 15% to 3%, in hopes of boosting imports into the south Asian nation. Whisky tariffs will be slashed in half, and are expected to fall further over successive years. Soft drinks, cars and cosmetics will also see cheaper duties. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet with Modi on Thursday to sign off on the deal. Before his meeting with Modi to confirm the deal, Starmer said: "Our landmark trade deal with India is a major win for Britain. "It will create thousands of British jobs across the UK, unlock new opportunities for businesses and drive growth in every corner of the country, delivering on our Plan for Change. "We're putting more money in the pockets of hardworking Brits and helping families with the cost of living, and we're determined to go further and faster to grow the economy and raise living standards across the UK." Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the investment will "reach all regions and nations of the UK so working people in every community can feel the benefits". The Prime Minister and his Indian counterpart also agreed ahead of their meeting to ramp up joint efforts to tackle corruption, fraud, organised crime and illegal migration, by sharing criminal records and other intelligence. The deal promises some benefits to the UK's financial services, but not as much as the Government would have liked. It is understood that talks continue regarding a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting investments in both countries. The two nations also continue to discuss UK plans for a tax on high-carbon industries, which India believes could hit its imports unfairly. The deal has been in the works for years. Negotiations first began in 2022 under Boris Johnson, and were concluded in May this year. Labour sought to portray closing the deal, as well as trade agreements with the US and the EU, as evidence of the Government's pragmatism and global outlook. But shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said it had only been made possible "because of Brexit delivered by the Conservatives". He added: "Any trade deal that can successfully cut regulation which stops Britain's makers from creating new jobs and wealth will be a step in the right direction. "But the irony should not be lost on anyone that any gains from this trade deal will be blown out of the water by Angela Rayner's union charter, stifling business with red tape, the jobs tax and, come autumn, Rachel Reeves' inevitable tax hikes that will punish Britain's makers just to reward those who do not contribute." The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has said that the signing "sends a powerful signal that the UK is open for business and remains resolute in its commitment to free and fair trade". Chief executive Rain Newton-Smith added: "A trade agreement with India - one of the world's fastest-growing economies - is a springboard for long-term partnership and prosperity. UK firms can take advantage of this new platform to scale, diversify and compete on the global stage." Starmer is facing calls to raise the case of detained blogger Jagtar Singh Johal with Modi. The Scottish Sikh has been detained in India since 2017, and is accused of being a member of the Khalistan Liberation Force, which is banned as a terror group in India. His family say he is being arbitrarily detained, with his brother Gurpreet Singh Johal insisting the matter should be "high on the agenda when the prime ministers meet".

Keir Starmer and Narendra Modi set to sign off on Britain-India trade deal
Keir Starmer and Narendra Modi set to sign off on Britain-India trade deal

Western Telegraph

timean hour ago

  • Western Telegraph

Keir Starmer and Narendra Modi set to sign off on Britain-India trade deal

The Prime Minister and his Indian counterpart also agreed ahead of their meeting on Thursday to ramp up joint efforts to tackle illegal migration and organised crime. The UK-India trade deal is understood to be the largest of its kind for its economic impact on Britain. We're putting more money in the pockets of hardworking Brits and helping families with the cost of living, and we're determined to go further and faster to grow the economy and raise living standards Sir Keir Starmer It will see tariffs on an array of British goods reduced from an average of 15% to 3%, with the aim of boosting the £11 billion of imports into the south Asian nation. Whisky tariffs will be slashed in half, according to the Government, and will fall further over successive years, while other industries including soft drinks, cars and cosmetics are also expected to see cheaper duties. Before his meeting with Mr Modi to confirm the deal, Sir Keir said: 'Our landmark trade deal with India is a major win for Britain. It will create thousands of British jobs across the UK, unlock new opportunities for businesses and drive growth in every corner of the country, delivering on our Plan for Change. 'We're putting more money in the pockets of hardworking Brits and helping families with the cost of living, and we're determined to go further and faster to grow the economy and raise living standards across the UK.' The deal is expected to result in 2,200 jobs across the country and £6 billion investment by British and Indian businesses. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the investment will 'reach all regions and nations of the UK so working people in every community can feel the benefits'. Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds (James Manning/PA) He added: 'The almost £6 billion in new investment and export wins announced today will deliver thousands of jobs and shows the strength of our partnership with India as we ensure the UK is the best place in the world to invest and do business.' The UK and India are also bolstering co-operation on tackling corruption, fraud, organised crime and illegal migration, by sharing criminal records and other intelligence. The deal has not given the UK as much access as it would have liked to India's financial and legal services industries. The agreement promises some benefits for the UK's financial services, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves understood to have pushed on behalf of the sector in discussions with her Indian counterpart. But more wide-ranging access was not agreed, and talks continue on a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting British investments in India and vice versa. The two nations also continue to discuss UK plans for a tax on high-carbon industries, which India believes could hit its imports unfairly. The Prime Minister is being pressed to raise the case of Jagtar Singh Johal (Family handout/PA) Negotiations on the deal began when Boris Johnson was prime minister in 2022, and were concluded in May this year. Labour sought to portray closing the deal, as well as trade agreements with the US and the EU, as evidence of the Government's pragmatism and global outlook. But shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said it had only been made possible 'because of Brexit delivered by the Conservatives'. He added: 'Any trade deal that can successfully cut regulation which stops Britain's makers from creating new jobs and wealth will be a step in the right direction. 'But the irony should not be lost on anyone that any gains from this trade deal will be blown out of the water by (Deputy Prime Minister) Angela Rayner's union charter, stifling business with red tape, the jobs tax and, come autumn, Rachel Reeves' inevitable tax hikes that will punish Britain's makers just to reward those who do not contribute.' The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has said that the signing 'sends a powerful signal that the UK is open for business and remains resolute in its commitment to free and fair trade'. Chief executive Rain Newton-Smith added: 'A trade agreement with India – one of the world's fastest-growing economies – is a springboard for long-term partnership and prosperity. UK firms can take advantage of this new platform to scale, diversify and compete on the global stage.' Elsewhere, Sir Keir is facing calls to raise the case of Jagtar Singh Johal, a British citizen who has been detained in India since 2017, when the Prime Minister meets Mr Modi. The Scottish Sikh is accused of being a member of the Khalistan Liberation Force, which is banned as a terror group in India. His family say he is being arbitrarily detained, with his brother Gurpreet Singh Johal insisting the matter should be 'high on the agenda when the prime ministers meet'.

Keir Starmer to sign off major new trade deal in boost to UK firms and shoppers
Keir Starmer to sign off major new trade deal in boost to UK firms and shoppers

Daily Mirror

timean hour ago

  • Daily Mirror

Keir Starmer to sign off major new trade deal in boost to UK firms and shoppers

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet Indian PM Narendra Modi on Thursday to rubberstamp a trade deal, which is expected to add around £4.8billion to the UK economy each year Keir Starmer will sign off a major trade deal to make it easier for British firms to sell goods like whisky, cosmetics and cars to India. ‌ The Prime Minister will meet Indian PM Narendra Modi on Thursday to rubberstamp the pact, which will add around £4.8billion to the UK economy each year. The agreement will slash tariffs on trade between the UK and India, making it easier for UK firms to export and potentially offering cheaper prices to shoppers. ‌ India's average tariff on UK products will drop from 15% to 3%, so it is cheaper for British companies to sell goods to the Indian market. Whisky producers will see tariffs slashed in half from 150% to 75%, and duties are expected to fall further to 40% over the next ten years. ‌ Tariffs on British cars will fall from 110% to 10% under a quota system, and other industries including soft drinks and cosmetics are also expected to see cheaper duties. In return, the UK is expected to reduce tariffs on imports from India, which is likely to mean lower prices for British shoppers on clothing, footwear, and food. ‌ The deal is being billed as a major win for Britain amidst the chaos triggered by Donald Trump's trade tariffs. As one of the world's largest economies, India has long been a target for Brexiteers keen to show the benefits of leaving the European Union. Boris Johnson began negotiations in 2022 but failed to deliver on his boast that he would get a deal "done by Diwali'. His Tory successors Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak also struggled to make progress, with stumbling blocks including Indian tariffs on Scotch whisky and visa rules. The agreement is the most significant bilateral trade deal since the UK left the EU, as India is the UK's 11th largest trading partner, with trade of goods and services worth around £42.6bn last year. It is expected to boost that trade by an additional £25.5bn a year by 2040, and drive up British exports by another £15.7bn. ‌ The Prime Minister said: 'Our landmark trade deal with India is a major win for Britain. It will create thousands of British jobs across the UK, unlock new opportunities for businesses and drive growth in every corner of the country, delivering on our Plan for Change. "We're putting more money in the pockets of hardworking Brits and helping families with the cost of living, and we're determined to go further and faster to grow the economy and raise living standards across the UK." ‌ The deal is expected to create another 2,200 jobs across the country and attract £6 billion investment by British and Indian businesses, according to the Government. Some Indian and British workers will also gain from a three-year exemption from social security payments, to stop them from being forced to pay twice if they are temporarily transferred abroad. The UK has similar deals with countries like the USA, Canada and the EU. The deal does not include any change to UK immigration policy, including for Indian students, which had previously been a sticking point. ‌ William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "The signing of this agreement is a clear signal of the UK's continuing commitment to free and fair trade. It will open a new era for our businesses and boost investment between two of the world's largest economies. 'Currently around 16,000 UK companies are trading goods with Indian companies, and there is high interest in our Chamber Network to grow that. This deal will create new opportunities in the transport, travel, creative and business support sectors alongside traditional strengths in finance and professional services." The PM and his Indian counterpart are also expected to discuss bolstering joint efforts to tackle illegal migration and organised crime. Mr Modi is expected to meet King Charles on his two-day visit.

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