The Daily Money: Is an interest rate cut coming?
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September? Perhaps not.
One member of the Fed's rate-setting committee now says he's worried about lingering inflation, a signal that he might not be inclined to support a rate cut.
Here's why that matters.
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If you happen to know your Myers-Briggs personality type, a new report from Resume Genius might have just the job for you.
📰 More stories you shouldn't miss 📰
📰 A great read 📰
Finally, here's a popular story from earlier this year that you may have missed. Read it! Share it!
President Donald Trump's widening global trade war has shaken the stock market, raised the odds of a recession and started to push up inflation for American households.
Trump says the ultimate prize, spurring more production in the United States and reclaiming the nation's status as a manufacturing stronghold, will be worth the turmoil.
Is he right?
About The Daily Money
Each weekday, The Daily Money delivers the best consumer and financial news from USA TODAY, breaking down complex events, providing the TLDR version, and explaining how everything from Fed rate changes to bankruptcies impacts you.
Daniel de Visé covers personal finance for USA Today.
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Yahoo
5 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stocks Fall Back on Hot PPI Report
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.11%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.39%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.30%. Stocks are seeing some downward pressure today after today's strong US PPI report and today's +3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield. In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly threw cold water on the idea of a -50 bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. More News from Barchart Why This Cannabis Penny Stock Could Be Wall Street's Next Meme Trade Breakout Apple Stock Is Gaining Momentum, Is AAPL Stock a Buy? Peter Thiel-Backed Bullish Is About to IPO. Should You Buy BLSH Stock? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Today's PPI report was much stronger than market expectations. The PPI report suggested that the markets might have been overly optimistic about Tuesday's CPI report and that companies are passing through tariffs at the wholesale level at a higher pace than earlier thought. The July US final-demand PPI report of +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y was substantially stronger than market expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. The July US core final-demand PPI report of +0.9% m/m and +3.7% y/y was substantially stronger than market expectations of +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y. The markets dialed back expectations for Fed easing in the wake of today's disappointing PPI report. The markets are no longer discounting any chance of a -50 bp rate cut at the September meeting and are now assigning a 93% chance of that rate cut. After Treasury Secretary Bessent's dovish comments on Wednesday, the markets temporarily assigned an 11% chance of a -50 bp rate cut at the September meeting. Nevertheless, the current 93% chance of a -25 bp rate cut in September is still substantially more dovish than the 40% chance assigned before the news of the weak July payroll report on August 1 and the in-line CPI report this past Tuesday. US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -3,000 to 224,000, which was close to expectations for a slight decline to 225,000. US weekly continuing claims fell by -15,000 to 1.953 million, which showed a slightly stronger labor market than expectations of a dip to 1.967 million. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the WSJ that she does not support a -50 bp rate cut at the September meeting, saying that "would send off an urgency signal that I don't feel about the strength of the labor market." Daly said she still supports two rate cuts this year, but that three cuts could be warranted "if we saw more signs that the labor market was more precarious." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today tried to backtrack a bit on his statements on Wednesday in which he said interest rates are "too constrictive" and that rates "should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower." He added, "There's a very good chance of a 50 basis point cut. We could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis point rate cut in September." In an interview with Fox Business today, Mr. Bessent said he was not telling the Fed what to do and that he was not calling for a series of Fed rate cuts with his comments on Wednesday. He said he was merely trying to say that models show the neutral rate is lower, although he didn't specify which models he was referring to. Mr. Bessent said he supports transparency and the call to clean up investment conflicts by members of Congress. In recent tariff news, President Trump early Tuesday extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days until November. Last Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced that he will impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports. Still, companies would be eligible for exemptions if they demonstrate a commitment to building their products in the US. However, the US will levy a separate tax on imports of electronic products that employ semiconductors. Also, Mr. Trump announced last Wednesday that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil. Last Tuesday, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports would be announced "within the next week or so." According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced. The market's focus during the remainder of this week is on any tariff-trade news and Friday's Trump-Putin summit. On Friday, July US retail sales are expected to climb +0.6% m/m and retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.3% m/m. Also on Friday, the July industrial production and manufacturing production reports are both expected to remain unchanged m/m. Finally, the University of Michigan's Aug US consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by +0.3 to 62.0. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 93% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and at 54% for a second -25 bp rate cut at the following meeting on October 28-29. Earnings reports indicate that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on track to rise +9.1% y/y, much better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and the most in four years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 82% of S&P 500 firms having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of companies exceeded profit estimates. Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.29%. China's Shanghai Composite posted a 3.75-year high but then fell back and closed down -0.46%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -1.45% and fell back from Wednesday's record high. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) are down by -6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.9 bp at 4.262%. T-note prices fell back today on the strong PPI report, which resulted in reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in the coming months. T-note prices were also undercut after Treasury Secretary Bessent today backtracked a bit on his comments yesterday, calling for aggressive Fed interest rate cuts. In a bearish factor, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate today is up by +1.0 bp at 2.386%. European government bond yields are higher. The 10-year German bund yield is up +2.3 bp at 2.703%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.9 bp at 4.618%. Swaps are discounting the chances at 7% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven are all trading higher today, except for Tesla (TSLA), which is down more than -1%. The leader is Amazon (AMZN) with a gain of more than +2%. Chip stocks are generally trading lower today on some give-back after yesterday's gains. ON Semiconductors (ON), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Align Technologies (ALGN), and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) are all down more than -2% today. Cisco Systems (CSCO) is down more than -1% due to cautious management guidance for the current fiscal year. Deere (DE) is down more than -6% on slightly lower management guidance for full-year net income as lower grain prices and tariff uncertainty are causing some farmers to pull back on equipment purchases. Dow Inc (DOW) is down more than -1% despite a rating hike to neutral from underperform from BofA Global Research due to its view that the stock is oversold. NetEase (NTES) is down more than -2% after a miss on Q2 sales and weaker-than-expected growth in its core gaming segment. CVS Health (CVS) is up nearly +1% on an upgrade from Baird to outperform from neutral due to "growing confidence" in the company's turnaround. Earnings Reports (8/14/2025) Deere & Co (DE), Amcor PLC (AMCR), Tapestry Inc (TPR), Applied Industrial Technologie (AIT), Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK), QXO Inc (QXO), Applied Materials Inc (AMAT), Sandisk Corp/DE (SNDK), Globant SA (GLOB), NU Holdings Ltd/Cayman Islands (NU). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Newsweek
7 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Popular Fast Food Chain to Close Dozens of Locations: What to Know
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Noodles & Company is set to close up to 32 of its restaurants across the United States by the end of 2025, the restaurant chain announced on Wednesday. The Colorado-based chain said in its 2025 second-quarter financial results that it will shutter between 28 and 32 company-owned restaurants this year and will open two sites. It comes as the company reported nationwide comparable restaurant sales growth, but a net loss and tighter liquidity. Newsweek reached out to Noodles & Company for comment via email outside of regular working hours. Why It Matters The expected 2025 closures represent around a 7 percent reduction in the company's footprint. The chain, which has been running since 1995, has around 400 restaurants across the U.S., according to the company. Several other American restaurant chains, including Denny's, Applebee's, TGI Fridays and Red Lobster, have also closed dozens of branches or filed for bankruptcy within the last year. Stock image of pasta. Stock image of pasta. GDA/AP What To Know Noodles & Company reported on Wednesday that comparable restaurant sales increased 1.5 percent overall in the second quarter, including a 1.5 percent increase at company-owned restaurants and a 1.6 percent increase at franchised sites. But total revenue decreased in the second quarter by 0.7 percent to $127.4 million. Net losses also stood at $17.6 million, compared to a loss of $13.6 million in the second quarter of 2024. As of July 1, the company had $2.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and outstanding debt of $108.3 million. In the second quarter, the company closed six company-owned restaurants and two franchise restaurants, but opened one new company-owned site. The restaurant closures come amid an attempted turnaround at the company, which included an overhaul of its menu in March. What People Are Saying Drew Madsen, Noodles & Company chief executive officer, said in a statement: "We are encouraged to have delivered positive comparable restaurant sales of 1.5 percent in the second quarter despite a challenging consumer environment that has led to heightened discounting and promotional activity across the industry. Our sales and traffic moderated after the initial successful rollout of our new menu due to the strong value-conscious climate as well as slower guest adoption of the upgrades made to some of our historic menu items. "We have been moving decisively to address these factors, particularly around guest value perception. Our new Delicious Duos value-focused platform, that launched at the beginning of August, is off to a great start. Comparable restaurant sales have increased to an average of positive five percent over the past two weeks, demonstrating that our value-focused initiatives are resonating with guests." Mike Hynes, Noodles & Company chief financial officer, said in a conference call on Wednesday, according to Restaurant Business Magazine: "We're very pleased with the results from closing under-performing restaurants. The closures have removed restaurants with negative cash flow from our system, and post closure, we've seen nearby Noodles restaurants experience an increase in sales and profits." What Happens Next Madsen is stepping down as the company's CEO this month and will be succeeded by Joe Christina, who will oversee the ongoing restaurant closures and openings this year.
Atlantic
7 minutes ago
- Atlantic
Trump Trades National Security for a Deal With China
After making a show of getting tough on China, President Donald Trump desperately needs a trade agreement to prove that his disruptive tactics get results. This week, the United States and China agreed to extend their negotiations, avoiding—for now—another round of tariffs that would have hurt business between the world's two largest economies. But the president's newfound willingness to allow the export of vital AI chips to China indicates that an eventual deal could imperil American interests. Eager for a pact, Trump may give up more than he receives. In 2022, then-President Joe Biden prohibited the export of advanced AI chips to China. Just four months ago, Trump expanded those restrictions. This week, though, Trump confirmed the details of an unusual arrangement effectively reversing that move: The American companies Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices will be allowed to sell certain chips to Chinese firms if the companies give the U.S. government a 15 percent cut of the revenue from these sales. In essence, Trump sold exemptions to technology-export controls that many experts consider crucial to protecting American security. In a letter last month, Matt Pottinger, who was Trump's deputy national security adviser during the president's first term, and 19 other policy professionals urged the administration not to allow the sale of Nvidia's H20 chip to China, calling the decision a 'strategic misstep that endangers the United States' economic and military edge in artificial intelligence.' Derek Thompson: The disturbing rise of MAGA Maoism Trump may see the arrangement not as a national-security issue but as a business deal: There's a lot of money to be made selling chips to China, and now the U.S. government will materially benefit. But Trump must also realize that he's made a concession to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing has persistently demanded that Washington remove U.S. export controls on advanced chips, and Xi personally pressed Biden for relief without success. Trump justified his flip-flop by arguing that the H20 chip is not among Nvidia's most high-powered products. He's right about that, but it's far from outdated. Chinese companies crave the H20 to help them deploy AI services. Indeed, the demand for the H20 appears to have alarmed Chinese authorities, who would prefer that local companies use homemade alternatives. Even as Beijing fights the U.S. restrictions, officials have tried slowing the rush by signaling in state media that the Nvidia chip is unsafe. Although Chinese designers have developed a similar chip, they are unable to produce enough, also due to U.S. restrictions that prevent them from using the top chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Trump has left the door open to further concessions. Because China's tech industry still can't match Nvidia's AI chips, Beijing is likely to prod Trump to ease restrictions on more advanced semiconductors. Rather than firmly committing to export controls, Trump suggested on Monday that he would be open to permitting Nvidia to sell China downgraded versions of its most powerful chips. Xi has every reason to ask for more. Trump's desire for a deal gives Chinese leaders leverage. And given Trump's pattern of sudden policy reversals, he has likely left an impression that anything could be on the table. Beijing is clearly all in on the negotiations. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Chinese government sent 75 officials to the most recent round of talks, in Stockholm in late July, compared with his own skeleton crew of 15. 'Xi now feels more emboldened to probe for a wider range of potential concessions, not only economic but also security concessions,' Ali Wyne, an expert on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, told me. Wyne fears this could lead to a 'lopsided bargain' in China's favor. Thomas Wright: Trump wasted no time derailing his own AI plan Xi has already gained on his top-priority issue: Taiwan. He urged Trump to approach Taiwan 'with prudence' during a phone conversation in June, according to the Chinese government's official summary. Washington then reportedly canceled meetings with Taiwan's defense minister, a step that surely pleased Beijing, which strives to isolate the island's government. The Trump administration also appears to have discouraged Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te from making stopovers in U.S. cities while en route to Latin America for diplomatic visits. Xi has done little in exchange. Beijing's most significant goodwill gesture was a June decision to restrict the sale of two chemicals that are used to make the illegal fentanyl circulating on American streets, an issue of utmost importance to the Trump team. But Beijing's action on curtailing the fentanyl trade will likely remain conditional on Trump's good behavior. Trump recently called on Xi in a social-media post to buy more U.S.-grown soybeans—which would be great for some American farmers, but is hardly an even swap for China's access to high-tech chips. Meanwhile, Xi has deftly created and deployed levers of pressure. Amid the escalating trade war in April, Beijing imposed controls on the export to the U.S. of rare-earth metals—an industry that China dominates—and then used their easing as a negotiating tool. In the end, Xi may not get all he wants. But he is winning just by talking. China's leaders have apparently learned that they can distract Trump from more strategic issues by haggling with him over tariff rates and soybean sales. The desire for a deal has so consumed the Trump team that any grander strategy to contend with China's growing power seems to have gotten lost. Last week, Trump imposed high tariffs on India in an attempt to compel New Delhi to curtail purchases of Russian oil—angering a potential partner in the global competition with China. Friendlier relations with China are certainly better than open hostility. The question has always been: At what cost? Trump may eventually seal a trade deal with China that benefits him, but not necessarily the nation.
