Rachel Reeves is in danger of being boxed in by her own rules
Live: Follow the latest on the chancellor's announcementKey points from the Spring Statement at a glanceThree ways the Spring Statement could affect youTaxes could still rise despite welfare cuts, economists warnWatch: Henry Zeffman on what you need to know...in 58 seconds
Bob the Builder bet
The OBR's acknowledgment that the government's planning reforms could significantly boost house building, was seen as a major win in Downing Street.It's a policy that doesn't involve taxes or spending yet is expected to provide a huge boost to growth.At this stage this is not about an extra brick being laid or even planning approval, but it is a "spreadsheet win" that eased the chancellor's fiscal pain.This comes as a result of local authority housing targets and council land being freed up.When the Planning and Infrastructure Bill passes later this year, which strips back judicial reviews, there should be a further increase in predicted growth.But the test is obviously actual spades and diggers in the ground and architects' plans being approved. This government is now all-in on Bob the Builder.There was some accountancy-driven cunning. Lists of public defence-related spending up and down the UK came from the unconstrained capital budget for buildings, which is basically exempt from the chancellor's non-negotiable financial rule to only borrow to fund day to day spending.But the cuts to welfare are very real. The 250,000 increase in people in poverty due to the cuts to health-related benefits does not include the impact of recipients getting new jobs. The Impact Assessment seems to confirm that the aim of the policy is more about saving cash than fundamental reform. In this and in other areas questions arise about whether the "OBR tail wags the policy dog" - i.e. is this really the way long-term policy should be formed?The big picture is that all of this becomes a lot easier if growth returns and interest costs calm.In the dreams of Number 11, while we assume the debate in autumn will be about what further tax rises are required, it is possible that by the time of October's Budget, this could happen.
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The Independent
3 hours ago
- The Independent
Labour must speed up plans to shut all asylum hotels, says party's red wall chief
Labour must shut down all asylum hotels 'a lot quicker' than its current plan to put a stop to them by the end of the current parliament in 2029, the chairman of the party's red wall group of MPs has said. Jo White, the MP for Bassetlaw, who leads a caucus of around 40 MPs in the party's traditional heartlands, said Chancellor Rachel Reeves ' plan to axe the use of asylum hotels by 2029 needed to be sped up. There are currently around 32,000 asylum seekers in hotels around the UK. Anti-migrant demonstrations last week outside one of those hotels, in Epping, led to more than a dozen arrests. The hotel was thrust into the spotlight after a man living there was charged with sexual assault, harassment and inciting a girl to engage in sexual activity. The man, from Ethiopia, has denied the offences and remains on remand in custody. Ms White told The Telegraph: 'There's a commitment to close down the hotels by the end of the parliamentary term. I think we all want it to be a lot, lot quicker than that.' 'There is a huge sense of unfairness because people work hard here in this country and commit to supporting the country and then there's the sense that what asylum hotels cost is a huge drag on what should be invested into our NHS, our schools and our infrastructure. 'So they have to close, we have to get those asylum hotels cleared out.' She added that she believes Labour ministers share her frustrations and went on to urge Sir Keir Starmer to 'stop the incentives' for those seeking to reach the UK illegally. A record 24,000 migrants have crossed the Channel so far this year, the highest tally for the first half of the year since records began in 2018. It represents a 48 per cent rise compared to the first six months of last year. Ms White welcomed home secretary Yvette Cooper 's plan to share asylum‑hotel locations with food‑delivery firms, calling it a sensible measure to crack down on illegal working. She also urged Sir Keir Starmer and Ms Cooper to revisit the idea of national identity cards, a proposal repeatedly ruled out by Downing Street. Reflecting on last week's demonstrations in Epping, however, she described the scenes as 'really frightening and quite scary', adding that while anger is understandable, violence against asylum seekers could not be condoned. It was revealed last week that plans to reduce the number of asylum hotels could see migrants rehoused in vacant residential properties and council‑owned homes. Public concern over the scheme has intensified as Sir Keir has vowed to significantly reduce both legal and illegal migration. At the same time, more than 40,000 failed asylum seekers remain in limbo, having appealed against their decisions and still requiring housing. A government spokesman said that since taking office, ministers had acted immediately to fix the asylum system, closing hotels and removing over 35,000 people with no right to be here.
Telegraph
8 hours ago
- Telegraph
Starmer must shut asylum hotels sooner, says Labour Red Wall chief
Sir Keir Starmer must act to shut asylum hotels sooner, the chairman of Labour's Red Wall group of MPs has said. There are around 32,000 asylum seekers in hotels and Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, has pledged to axe their use by the end of the current Parliament in 2029. But Jo White, the Labour MP for Bassetlaw, said the caucus she leads of around 40 MPs in the party's traditional heartlands wanted the hotels closed 'a lot, lot quicker than that'. It comes in the wake of 16 arrests for violence last week at the Bell Hotel in Epping after the alleged sexual assault of a 14-year-old girl by a 38-year-old migrant from Ethiopia. Ms White told The Telegraph: 'I've heard ministers saying they share the frustration on the number of small boats that continue to come across and I know they're listening because I constantly go on about it. 'There's a commitment to close down the hotels by the end of the parliamentary term. I think we all want it to be a lot, lot quicker than that.' She went on to urge Sir Keir to 'stop the incentives' that have seen a record 24,000 migrants cross the Channel so far this year, representing a rise of 50 per cent. Ms White welcomed plans by Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, to share the locations of asylum hotels with food delivery companies in a crackdown on illegal working. But she also urged Sir Keir and Ms Cooper to introduce identity cards to tackle the migrant crisis, an idea that has repeatedly been ruled out by Downing Street. Reflecting on anger among her own constituents in Nottinghamshire, Ms White added: 'There is a huge sense of unfairness because people work hard here in this country and commit to supporting the country and then there's the sense that what asylum hotels cost is a huge drag on what should be invested into our NHS, our schools and our infrastructure. 'So they have to close, we have to get those asylum hotels cleared out.' She went on to describe the scenes in Epping as 'really frightening and quite scary' and insisted that violent disorder was never the answer. 'Whilst you might be angry that these people are here, they are human beings, and violence against those people is not acceptable and cannot be tolerated,' she said. A second Labour MP suggested Ms Cooper's department had failed to grasp the scale of public frustration with the use of asylum hotels. A ring of steel was put up around a four-star hotel in London's Canary Wharf last week in an effort to deter protests ahead of the prospective arrival of Channel migrants. The MP said: 'Obviously we are closing hotels but if the Home Office can't understand why the public don't like migrants using four-star hotels in Canary Wharf, then there's a problem. 'I've been pushing for looking at former MoD sites for detention centres – and then you wouldn't need to use these flashy hotels.' The Telegraph revealed last week that plans to slash the number of asylum hotels could mean migrants being housed in empty homes and properties bought by councils. Anger over the scale of the current scheme comes after Sir Keir vowed to significantly reduce both legal and illegal migration. Nigel Farage's Reform UK currently has a comfortable lead in the polls having promised to introduce a 'one in, one out' immigration system and send small boats back to France. There is also a growing backlog of more than 40,000 failed asylum seekers who have appealed against their decisions, many of whom require housing. A government spokesman said: 'Since taking office, we have taken immediate action to fix the asylum system and have started closing down hotels and removing more than 35,000 people with no right to be here. 'While the public have a right to protest against the current situation, we will never tolerate unlawful or violent behaviour.'
The Guardian
8 hours ago
- The Guardian
‘We have to move': historic village of Tempsford reels from plan to swell its 600 residents to 350,000
This is – they tell you in Tempsford – where Boudicca rallied against the Romans. Where the early English kings fought off the Danes and where Churchill launched secret flights to aid resistance fighters keeping the Nazis at bay. But the historic earthworks, wheatfields and RAF base of Tempsford may yet prove no match for a chancellor bent on housebuilding and growth, armed with thinktank reports and a 10-year infrastructure strategy. Before Rachel Reeves announced plans to accelerate a 'growth arc' between Oxford and Cambridge, the name of this tiny Bedfordshire village was likely unknown to most. Then, last month, the government confirmed plans to make it the site of a new railway station, where the planned East West Rail linking the university cities will meet the East Coast mainline from London. Tempsford could be an appealing commuter base for workers in any of those cities, but some see more potential still. As Labour came to power pledging 1.5 million new homes, a report from UK Day One urged that they should be built as new towns. And there was one obvious location. It was, said David Sutton, the chair of the parish council and landlord of the village pub, quite a moment when the 600 residents of Tempsford learned of plans to swell their ranks to 350,000 people. A previous local Bedfordshire plan had identified possible development opportunities, and the county has seen plenty of fields give way to housing estates, solar farms and wind turbines. But, Sutton said: 'There had been talk of 10,000 or 20,000 houses, then out of nowhere came this 350,000 [people] figure.' He said local reaction ranged 'from apathy, saying, 'well, nothing's happened yet,' to 'we have to move away.'' The post-war new towns of Stevenage and Welwyn, and the success story of the 1960s wave, Milton Keynes, are all relatively nearby. But as they thrived, Tempsford saw its century-old station axed in the Beeching cuts, and the expanded A1 road cut the settlement in two. On the east side of this division is Station Road, ending in a level crossing where East Coast main line trains whizz between London and Edinburgh. To the west is the pub, various Tudor buildings and the church. Union jacks fly over centuries-old thatched cottages and – if you can ignore the sound of the A1, tucked out of sight behind strategically placed trees – the rural England vibes are strong. Sutton's pub, the Wheatsheaf, reopened last year, and claims a history dating back at least as far as a coaching house on the site in the early 16th century. 'There's an element of being the only traditional pub in a city of hundreds of thousands of people that isn't all bad,' Sutton said. 'Milton Keynes shows how it could be done. But it isn't pretty.' The neighbouring village, Roxton, is already seeing development and could be swallowed up by the new town. Behind the bar of the Wheatsheaf, Fiona Nicholl said she recently sold her home in Roxton to move to Tempsford. 'I used to look out of my windows and see fields,' she said. 'Then I watched the road and houses grow up ... All this rural land disappeared. 'It just doesn't make any sense – it's just taking away the beauty of a rural area. The amount of stress it puts on the whole community is mad.' Roxton residents have just lost a planning appeal to stop a development that was admitted to be environmentally damaging. 'But that didn't outweigh the benefits of new housing,' said Deborah Jackson, a Wheatsheaf regular. 'If a council hasn't met its housing need, then the planners can ride roughshod over the rest.' It is very much the direction of travel, as the new Labour government has signalled, to favour the builders over the blockers. And Tempsford, unlike many new developments, will at least be well connected. As well as the promised new train station, work is underway to reshape the nearby Black Cat roundabout. Part of a £1bn investment by National Highways, this will complete the dual carriageway between Milton Keynes and Cambridge. 'It seemed like the perfect location,' said Kane Emerson, one of the UK Day One report's two authors. 'We were motivated by our strong feeling that new homes should be well located for transport.' Emerson, who is also the head of housing at the Yimby Alliance ('Yes, in my back yard'), added: 'The government speaks a lot about economic growth – and if you look at where homes will deliver the most growth, it's near where the average earnings to house price ratio is at its highest – essentially those places with really good opportunities such as Oxford, Cambridge and London.' Developers had already spotted the potential. About 850 hectares (2,100 acres) of the land around Tempsford is optioned by Urban&Civic, a developer owned by the Wellcome Trust. The case for Tempsford improves further, the UK Day One report said, with a tax or other mechanism to claim some of the massive uplift in land value for the state. 'The agricultural price per hectare is about £35,000,' Emerson said. 'Once you get planning permission you are looking at £3m per hectare. The government should be capturing a significant chunk of that – it's kind of free money.' Emerson's co-author, Samuel Hughes, is an editor at Works in Progress magazine. He said this money could finance long-desired upgrades to the East Coast main line: expanding the King's Cross terminus and relieving the bottleneck at Welwyn – where four tracks become two, forcing high-speed and stopping services on to the same lines. 'The two big questions are over land value capture and scale,' Hughes said. 'Is it 10,000 or 100,000 dwellings?' After visiting the village, he still favours the latter. 'The residents were remarkably polite to me, all things considered,' he said. 'Unfortunately, there is an overwhelming case for building at Tempsford.' The future for Tempsford may well depend on the government-commissioned new towns taskforce, which is due to report in September. But others concur that going big beats small, scattered areas of new homes. Steve Chambers is the director of the charity Transport for New Homes. He has visited plenty of housing developments that don't work. 'We term them cowpat estates – plonked in the fields,' he said. 'Every single trip they generate is in the car, in the vast majority of cases. If it's remote, it needs to be big enough to support amenities – you're talking about tens of thousands of homes. 'What we like about the new towns plan is the scale. They really do have the potential because they can support having a high street, a bus service … And Tempsford on those two rail lines will effectively be a transport node. But it has to be built at scale if it is to be successful.' Massive urban development still feels a long way away in the Wheatsheaf, where a tank of racing snails takes pride of place. Looking across the road, over fields that lead to the river Ouse, and his own Tudor house, Sutton said: 'I remember as a lad going down the A1, through this village that was cut in two, thinking that's a weird place. 'Yes, it is a weird place. But I love it.' A neighbour pulled up, and wound down the window of his electric Porsche. He was sceptical that widespread housing could come to this side of the village, having previously put sandbags out to protect his own home from the flooding river. But across the A1, he reckoned, 20,000 homes were a given. How did that make him feel? 'It's progress,' he said, sombrely, before brightening: 'I'll be in there,' he added, pointing to the nearby graveyard, 'long before it happens'.
