Our columnists weigh in on shock SNP defeat in Hamilton

The National

13 hours ago

The result will be picked over for days, perhaps weeks to come. For now. we've asked Scotland's top commentators to give their immediate post-mortems...
Robin McAlpine
When you get a surprise result in a by-election it is often the result of something that commentators and analysts have missed, a factor or mood that escaped the chattering classes. I'm not sure that is what has happened in Hamilton. I think this result, though it surprised me, probably does more to confirm our current position than confound it.
Put simply, voters feel they have no good options and are voting against things, not for them. There is a very low level of emotional attachment to political parties just now. Walking away is easy. That creates a high level of volatility. It doesn't take much to win or lose an election these days.
READ MORE: SNP activists reveal HQ silenced Reform strategy warnings
So why is the SNP the victim? From a few conversations I have had with people in Hamilton, a lot of what appears to have been on their minds is 'the state of the town'. Hamilton was once a prosperous, successful town, it doesn't always feel like that now, and the things people identify as failing are mostly the responsibility of Holyrood.
Combined with the fact that Labour heavily promoted their candidate as 'not a politician' and appears to have had a better ground game, it seems to have edged them in front.
What lessons can be taken from this? I've been worried for a while that all the SNP's bluster about having 'turned the corner' from its declining situation was difficult to support from the data. It remains stuck on 28% in the polls and my experience of the attitude of even those still voting SNP is hardly what you'd call enthusiastic.
The SNP might wish to dwell on the fact that persuading political insiders and journalists that the 'ship is steady' and persuading the public that you're worth getting off the sofa and actually supporting are two very different tasks.
Kenny MacAskill
The Hamilton result is a defeat for the SNP but it's also a blow to the independence movement. Alba stood aside to 'max the Yes vote', it's for the Greens to answer why they stood polling more than the small Labour majority and costing victory.
But the SNP fundamentally has to take responsibility for a campaign where they abandoned independence to pursue opposing Reform. In politics it's always better to say what you're for rather than against. Yet with independence at over 50% it was forsaken. What should have been the SNP's unique selling point was abandoned.
READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results – see the full breakdown in charts and graphs
In 1967 Winnie Ewing was resolute in her demand for independence with her quip 'stop the world Scotland wants to get on' resonating. Yet this by-election saw the SNP defeated by a very weak Labour candidate. The very sort of apparatchik that Winnie defeated back then and who Alex Salmond saw removed from their political hegemony over Scotland. John Swinney is now in danger of handing Scotland back to Labour on plate rather than delivering independence.
Winnie excited voters with the prospects of Scotland gaining from her natural resources and Scotland's North Sea oil. Shamefully, that wealth has been stolen and our refinery shut. But now a renewable energy bounty is arriving. Scotland is energy rich, but Scots are fuel poor and businesses and jobs aren't following.
It's why the independence movement needs to come together. Next year's Holyrood election must be a plebiscite election, and 'max the Yes vote' the strategy.
Lesley Riddoch
(Image: YouTube)
This was a grim result for independence. The much-pilloried Labour candidate Davy Russell won – and he did so for two big reasons. First, Labour camped out in the constituency for months – but the SNP could have done the same. Second, and more importantly, Russell was a highly visible local and 'not a politician'. In a constituency and an era where trust has been lost in both Westminster and Scottish governments, folk will always prefer one of their own. And much as Russell failed to loup the bar as a conventional candidate, he scored big time as a born and bred man who works for local charities, enjoys bowling at the local club and is a regular at the local karaoke. Since there was no actual polling in the constituency this local effect was completely missed by everyone.
This is a warning.
'Non politicians' thrive when politics becomes technocratic, impersonal and unengaging. That includes the 'non-politicians' of Reform, whose leader successfully presents as a regular guy but owns four houses and co-owns his party. He is a disruptor, as the SNP were before becoming custodians of a devolved government.
READ MORE: John Curtice issues verdict on Hamilton by-election after 'surprise' result
Sure, they must make governance work but they must also develop strong home-grown local candidates for elections and stop drawing a polite veil over problems they cannot fix without independence.
A spark, hope, vision is needed – yet independence was apparently not mentioned in any of Katy Loudon's election leaflets.
It was a tough night to be doing BBC commentary in Glasgow, but more depressing was breakfast in a nearby hotel where the waiter, about to graduate in naval engineering, said he's off to London because there are no engineering jobs in Scotland. All his friends are doing the same. T'was ever thus. But it could and must be otherwise. It's why we need independence.
Tommy Sheppard
When it's this close you could plausibly argue that any number of things might have altered the result. There are always a myriad of push and pull factors that play on an electorate's mind and determine how it will settle.
More important is the overall narrative of the election; the stories parties tell and which are believed.
In this by-election this electorate chose not to believe the SNP's story. We need to ask why – and we need to get a better one.
The central theme of the SNP's campaign was to argue the contest was a two-horse race, between them and Reform UK. Only the SNP could beat the buoyant new far-right insurgents.
READ MORE: Angus Robertson tears into BBC coverage of Hamilton by-election count on live TV
From the off, this is an unusual play to make in defence. The two-horse race line is usually deployed by a challenger to mobilise opposition to an incumbent.
Doing it in this context results in a number of unfortunate and unintended consequences. First it necessarily portrays the SNP as the status quo. With an electorate boasting many reasons not to be cheerful that is always going to be a tricky ask.
Second, in defence the argument has the reverse effect on your opponent that it might in attack. The other party, in this case Reform, are presented as the second most important party. The message to anyone flirting with Reform is that they are a serious contender, best placed to upset the SNP. We make their argument for them.
But the two-horse argument only works if it is plausible and resonates in the real world. Despite tens of thousands of leaflets and thousands of knocked doors repeating the line, most people simply didn't believe it.