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The National
2 days ago
- Politics
- The National
SNP leadership has built an indy strategy that cannot deliver
Put together, they paint the same picture – the SNP leadership has built an independence strategy that can't deliver and isn't even trying to inspire people to believe it can. Swinney's 'route' is nothing more than this – win an SNP majority at Holyrood in 2026 and ask Westminster for a referendum. That's it. No civic leadership to carry the case beyond party lines. No plan for public mobilisation. No day-one actions that show Scotland taking responsibility for itself. Just another request to London, built on the hope that what happened in 2011-14 will happen again. But 2014 wasn't some rule we can repeat. It happened because Westminster thought it would win. It only said yes when it believed the risk was zero. That precedent doesn't work the moment it thinks it could lose. Swinney's entire plan rests on the false belief that the UK will eventually give in if we keep playing by its rules. It also rests on votes he's never going to get. I'm not talking about people like me who used to vote SNP but won't any more. I mean those who support independence but will never vote SNP for reasons that have nothing to do with the Union. Swinney's strategy needs them to ignore all that and back the SNP any way. They won't, and that means the plan is dead before it starts. You can't weld a national movement to a single party when a chunk of that movement will never wear the party badge. Robin McAlpine's piece made it clear – party leaders are the least-trusted messengers. Civic, cultural and professional figures are far more effective at shifting opinion, but the SNP have stopped working alongside them in any real way. They've centralised the movement into a party machine and mistaken that for a national campaign. That's not strategy, that's self-interest wearing a Saltire. Now look at Seamus Logan's Westminster diary. It's meant as a personal insight but it shows how normal Westminster life has become for SNP MPs – speeches, receptions, endless meetings, office routines. I don't question the workload, but I do question the mindset. If the 'primary task' is independence, Westminster should feel like a temporary assignment with a hard end date — not a career track you settle into. The longer you adapt to its rhythms, the more you forget why you're supposed to be there in the first place. The reality is that Swinney's plan isn't designed to win independence. It's designed to preserve control of the issue inside the SNP. It shuts out those who won't vote for the party, and it leaves the wider Yes movement sitting idle while the clock runs down. It's the politics of waiting, not the politics of doing. History will remember them as futilitarians – leaders who turned Scotland's bid for freedom into a case study in how to waste a nation's hope. James Murphy via email I HAVE read with great interest within this newspaper columns and letters on the strategies which could lead us to independence – demanding a second referendum; using the election as a de facto referendum; giving the people of Scotland authority by enacting a UN declaration and appealing to the UN for decolonisation. While I would be delighted if any of these strategies did lead to our independence, I think they are all jumping the gun. I want independence yesterday but the sad fact is that at the moment we don't have a mandate! Polling shows support for independence at around 50%. If approximately half our population favour independence, this means half are happy with the status quo. How can we expect Westminster or the UN. To act in our favour with the country split down the middle? It won't, so we are wasting our time and efforts. Until we grow a settled, significant majority, all of the above strategies will get nowhere. We must focus on growing our mandate first and then all of the strategies will become much more possible. The prime question is how to do this! Local and national politicians did not choose to abolish the Skye bridge tolls. It took brave action from protesters to force this change. Thatcher's poll tax was not defeated by the Labour Party opposition. It was defeated by protesters who refused to pay and who organised a mass movement through direct street action. Similarly, as Robin McAlpine has explained in his columns this and last week, it can't be the SNP. They are constrained to act within the devolution settlement so will never achieve the level of support we need. The only people who can convince enough of our population is ourselves through united and visible action. Support for independence grew in 2014 during the referendum campaign from 28% to 45% and possibly it was only lost by false promises and a lack of policy within the SNP. The currency stance is a prime example. Remember how the whole of our population was energised, with debate everywhere. This paper is a great help in relaying the message but it only reaches a minority. We need to recreate this debate by acting together to determine the people's constitution and prospectus for independence. We could surprise ourselves by just how quickly we could achieve this boost. However, If we leave it to the SNP and other parties, it's not going to happen. Campbell Anderson Edinburgh DOES onywan really believe that gin ilka person in Scotland o voting age voted fur an independence pairty, Westminster wuid tak ony heed? Keir Starmer is sic ae carin cheil he wuid niver ignore the wushes o the people. Aa he wants is fur peace an understanding, the richt o sel-determination an respect fur national an international law. Humanity personified. Aye right. George T Watt via email
The Herald Scotland
23-07-2025
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
NRS hand contract for 2031 census to private firm
The company – one of the so-called Big Four accountancy firms – has faced multiple fines globally in recent years, including a £15 million penalty in 2020 from the UK's Financial Reporting Council over audit failures at software firm Autonomy. READ MORE The last census faced significant challenges. The Scottish Government decided in July 2020 to delay it by a year, taking it out of sync with the exercise in England and Wales. That decision was blamed for low returns, forcing SNP ministers to extend the deadline by a month. Despite the extension, only 89% of homes in Scotland returned the survey – short of the government target and well below the 97% overall return rate reported in England and Wales. On Public Contracts Scotland, the [[Scottish Government]]'s "national portal for public sector contract opportunities", the contract is described as being for an "Outline Business Case by May 2025, to feed into [[Scottish Government]] funding cycles for 26/27 and beyond". This will involve "working with NRS and partners to draw from the Strategic Outline Case and draw updated material from the Programme on the preferred option and delivery approach". "It is quite shocking to find out that the Scottish Government has handed responsibility for the next Scottish census to a private company," said Robin McAlpine of Common Weal. He described the 2022 Scottish census as "effectively the first failed census in modern history." "This is just the same old story of Scotland's public sector being privatised by stealth and of the core data on which public policy is based being shaped not for the public good but by the same financial elite which has been fined again and again and again for corruption carried out in favour of its clients," Mr McAlpine said, "It is beyond belief that Scotland's emaciated and failing civil service is not capable of designing a census, just as it is beyond belief that we allow private sector interests to shape core public data, even after their role in the failure of the 2022 census. "As best as we can tell, the National Records of Scotland has been wholly captured by Edinburgh's corporate sector. This should be of very great concern to every Scottish citizen." READ MORE A National Records of Scotland spokesperson said: "NRS will run and is fully responsible for the next census in Scotland in 2031. Deloitte were commissioned for a time-limited period to assist specifically with the development of an Outline Business Case. "This was based on the specialist skills and expertise they could provide in this area. "The 2022 census delivered valuable data for Scotland, with NRS gathering, analysing and presenting over a billion statistics which represented Scotland's whole population. "These statistics are already being used to inform decision making across our economy and society. "The statistics regulator awarded Scotland's Census 2022 results with Accredited Official Statistics designation based on the quality, good practice and comprehensiveness of the data."
The National
18-07-2025
- Politics
- The National
Independence campaigners react to new John Swinney referendum plan
The National has reached out to influential figures within the independence movement to hear their take on the three-part plan. Read below as Robin McAlpine, Jonathon Shafi, Lesley Riddoch, Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp and Ruth Wishart have their say. READ MORE: John Swinney sets out 3-point plan to achieve Scottish independence Robin McAlpine (Common Weal): No more progress towards independence under John Swinney's leadership It would have been less embarrassing if the First Minister hadn't written this. It is his second major relaunch in recent weeks and neither are persuasive or identifiably different from the pre-launch position. This is based on fantasies. The First Minister can keep claiming the SNP are united and popular again, but opinion polling and constant internal grumbling prove otherwise. This "strategy" isn't going to help matters. The same politicians repeating the same soundbites won't grow support. There is no chance the SNP are going to secure more than 50% of the votes cast next year. I therefore see no chance that they will then be able to mobilise any kind of mass public campaign. As a strategist I can tell you that a persuasive strategy speaks for itself and does not need all this stuff about global precipices and nations reborn and destiny and dynamic interconnected economies. Adjectives are the enemy of good strategy. All we have learned from this is that the SNP won't speak to anyone but themselves, that they are entirely out of ideas and that they plan to run the same election campaign as last time and call that an independence strategy. If this is all they have it now seems vanishingly unlikely there will be any further progress towards independence under the current regime. In fact I'd be surprised if there is anyone who is now not drawing the same conclusion. The door is wide open but the SNP is blocking it. Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp (Believe in Scotland): There's nothing new here The SNP are getting on the front foot on independence again, that's to be welcomed. However, there isn't anything new being said that hasn't been said before by previous leaders before Scottish elections. The new SNP strategy summarised: Start using the word 'independence' again and reiterate the SNP's support for it. Good, but that alone won't trigger the new national conversation required for the country to truly engage with the independence cause. Emphasise that Swinney's SNP is regaining its reputation for competent governance. But after 18 years in power, the SNP are seen as the establishment, tired and not exciting. Voters may feel a Labour FM could wield more influence in London, where the SNP clearly have none. Ask for a referendum if they win the election. A repeat of the democratic mandate by being the largest party that they already have. That mandate will be ignored as it has been in the past. Without a majority of votes or seats, it's easy for Westminster to dismiss any mandate the [[SNP]] may have on the constitution. Governments don't offer referendums they believe they'll lose. David Cameron thought 2014 would deliver a 75% No vote, or he'd never have agreed to it. He misjudged the EU referendum too thinking Remain would win comfortably. That mandate will be ignored as it has been in the past. Without a majority of votes or seats, it's easy for Westminster to dismiss any mandate the SNP may have on the constitution. If the [[SNP]] want to capture the 54% Yes support in a Holyrood election, they must do two things. Firstly, explain what happens when Westminster says No. Not doing so means asking supporters to back something they know won't happen, and that will cost them seats. Secondly, we need a new national conversation to co-create a vision of the future. When Believe in Scotland meets the FM in early August, I'll present the details of the Scottish Citizens' Convention Plan and challenge him to fund it or come up with a better plan. This strategy is not a better plan. Jonathon Shafi (columnist and socialist campaigner): Yes, the SNP are in a better place. But this is word soup While arguably down to the weakness of the opposition, there is no doubt that the [[SNP]] have steadied themselves under John Swinney's leadership. In a fast-moving world, it is easy to forget just how perilous the situation was for the party. Riven with splits, including bruising clashes and fallouts between leading figures, there was an existential feel to the atmosphere at the height of the police investigation into party finances. This, combined with departure of a once untouchable Nicola Sturgeon and a threadbare track record in terms of meaningful reform in government, led to new found belief in the Labour camp. But despite their recent by-election win, Keir Starmer has made it an uphill battle as far as the prospects for [[Holyrood]] 2026 are concerned. As such, and despite it all, the [[SNP]] are on track to form yet another government. But this is where any faint praise ends. Just as [[John Swinney]] identifies the "listlessness" of the Labour Party, the same can be said of the [[SNP]]. There is a lack of bite when it comes to policy, especially when it comes to taking on the vested interests. Thus, the freeports are being set up, our wind is being sold off and Grangemouth went down without a fight. The idea that the First Minister is going to lead an insurgent campaign against the British state will be risible to many. The official prospectus for independence remains little more than a hangover from the Growth Commission, which would leave Scotland stranded without its own currency for an indefinite period, and therefore at the behest of the Bank of England and the City. There is no sign that this and other programmatic issues have been addressed, so it is little wonder that the result is word soup. Ruth Wishart (columnist): Patience isn't unlimited On one thing we can certainly agree: 'Scotland's interests are best served only when Scotland's future is in Scotland's hands. Our nation will only fully flourish when the people of Scotland are in charge of our own destiny with independence.' The question remains who is best placed to move the dial. [[John Swinney]] benefits from the fact that all his main opponents are Unionists. I'm unconvinced that the indy movement as a whole will buy the assertion that: 'Our renewed unity and sense of purpose is clear for all to see. Some good and necessary first steps have been taken, but they have only brought us to the starting line." How long are we meant to linger on the starting line? John argues that the long pause from 2014 suggests our aspirations 'are ever more valid.' Yes they are. But for many of us long-standing supporters of independence, patience is not unlimited. Apparently we demonstrated in 2014 that a formal referendum is "the correct means to bring about independence'. Even if them down there keep saying no? Even if we continue to beg on our knees for one? Lesley Riddoch (journalist, filmmaker, campaigner): We need something to enthuse us, and this isn't it Lesley Riddoch with the FM in an interview marking 10 years since the indyrefJohn, a question. Will independence be line one, page one of the SNP's 2026 manifesto? If not, this well-constructed piece means nothing. You want a Scotland that is reborn. Good phrase. But rebirth should start now. The only "new" policy you mention is scrapping peak rail fares – again. How about finally publishing Scottish Government franchising guidelines to help regional transport authorities re-regulate buses so the £2 cap on bus journeys already operating in England can happen here? That would be genuinely new, big, inexpensive and only involves standing up to the lawyers. Ditto muscular land reform, a land tax and a wealth tax. Dinnae pu' a face. People need to see you tackle the ae' beens and vested interests fearlessly so they can believe the disruption of independence will be worth the candle. You are "ready to turn the heat up on Westminster". How? And you say: "History tells us that only when the SNP is doing well is there any prospect of advancing on Scotland's constitutional cause." Strangely enough indy is doing quite well right now while the SNP are not. None of this is really new. So c'mon. Surprise, enthuse and amaze us. What do you make of the strategy? Have your say in the comments.
The National
19-06-2025
- Business
- The National
Yes Cymru deliver Crown Estate campaign letter to Downing Street
All 22 local authorities in Wales, the Senedd, and an overwhelming 75% of the Welsh public have supported the campaign on, with the final council voting unanimously to support the proposal last week. In the letter, YesCymru set out the case for the transfer, stating that "Westminster's failure to act is strengthening the case for independence" and driving public support. Thee group highlighted the significant rise in backing for an independent Wales, from around 5% before the 2014 Scottish referendum to 41% in the most recent poll, conducted in April. READ MORE: Robin McAlpine: Why support for independence is surging in Wales Campaigners are calling for the management of Crown Estate assets in Wales to be devolved to the Welsh Government, and for the profits from these sites to stay in Wales also, instead of going to the UK Treasury. Crown Estate Scotland manages seabed, coastline, rural estates and other assets, delivering the profits to the Scottish Government for public spending. The Crown Estate in Wales, valued at over £850 million, generates significant revenue from Welsh land and seabeds. Several peers argued in October that it is only fair to devolve the Crown Estate in Wales to the Welsh Government, given Scottish assets were devolved to Scotland in 2016. Director of YesCymru, Rob Hughes, said: "Wales has been overlooked and undervalued for far too long. All we're asking for is fairness, and when that's denied, more and more people see independence as the only way forward." The letter outlines that YesCymru is willing to engage constructively with the UK Government, not only on transferring the Crown Estate but also on preparing the way for a referendum on Welsh independence. Hughes concluded: "This united support across Wales shows that YesCymru can bring people together behind a clear demand, and that real change is possible when voices across the country speak as one."
The National
17-06-2025
- Business
- The National
Independence campaigners react to John Swinney speech on independence
The First Minister insisted in a speech in Edinburgh on Tuesday that independence was 'within reach' and said the constitutional question was the 'defining choice for this generation'. But the SNP leader's comments, which come before a big party meeting this weekend, have been met with frustration from some corners of the independence movement. Robin McAlpine (below), head of strategic development at the Common Weal think tank, told The National: 'It is a truth universally acknowledged that an SNP leader in possession of an approaching party conference must be in want of a boilerplate speech about independence. It is the SNP National Council this weekend so regular as clockwork, here is the speech.' He added: 'As a professional political strategist I can tell you that you don't get to demand space in the political agenda, you need to earn space by having something to say that people want to hear, and that this isn't it. 'But you will have your own tolerance levels for how much longer this can go on with us pretending this is an adequate response. I doubt me telling you it is not will change much.' READ MORE: John Swinney launches report showing Scotland 'must take charge of own destiny' Kenny MacAskill, leader of the Alba Party, dismissed the speech as a 'damp squib'. He said: 'What we needed and what SNP activists, members and supporters are crying out for was a clear vision and action on independence what we got from the First Minister was a damp squib. 'The First Minister said that 'independence is the defining choice' facing the Scottish people but he has yet to set out the positive difference independence will make and back that aspiration with the political will to achieve it. 'Independence is not a nice to do at some point in the future; it is absolutely essential to save our manufacturing industry, prevent further closures and job losses and to deliver lower energy prices for people and businesses. John Swinney needs to pursue independence with the urgency that is required.' MacAskill reiterated calls for the SNP leader to contest next year's Holyrood election as an unofficial vote on independence, adding: 'John Swinney must unite the pro-independence parties and the wider independence movement by declaring that a majority of votes cast on the list for pro-independence parties will be the mandate for independence. 'Only then can he re-energise the independence campaign, put the fuel back in the tank and motivate independence supporters in the country.'
