Amid signs of waning influence, what's behind Jokowi's move not to contest top post of party chaired by son?

CNA

4 hours ago

JAKARTA: Former Indonesian President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's decision not to run for the top post of a political party chaired by his son is aimed at giving the younger man greater political power, analysts say.
They add, however, that without a political vehicle since his term ended eight months ago, there are signs that Jokowi's influence is waning.
Since registration opened on May 13 for Indonesian Solidarity Party's (PSI) leadership election next month, all eyes have been on whether Jokowi would step forward to contest, with the former president himself not ruling it out when asked.
But his younger son Kaesang Pangarep, PSI's incumbent chairman, confirmed last Saturday (Jun 21) that his father would not be contesting. Candidate registration closed on Monday.
'It is impossible that both son and father compete with each other," Kaesang said at a press conference.
The 30-year-old added that he had persuaded his father to give younger politicians space to be in the political spotlight.
He deflected a question on whether Jokowi, who turned 64 last Saturday, would join as a party cadre.
Kaesang is running for the post of chairman in PSI's election along with two cadres, Ronald Sinaga and Agus Mulyono Herlambang.
Members of PSI will vote between Jul 12 and 19, and hold a congress to declare the winner on Jul 19 and 20.
JOKOWI TO SUPPORT SON FROM BEHIND THE SCENES
PSI, known primarily as a political party comprising young supporters of Jokowi, was established in 2014 but has yet to garner enough votes to secure a seat in the national parliament.
However, it has managed to increase its supporters over the years.
Kaesang joined PSI in September 2023 and was named its chairman two days later.
Questions over Widodo's health have made the news in recent days due to a change in his appearance, but analysts said this is unlikely to have been a factor in his decision not to join the PSI leadership contest.
Some swelling and dark spots on his face were observed when he appeared last Saturday to greet birthday well-wishers, triggering speculation over his health.
But an aide told the media that Widodo is physically fine and 'very, very healthy'.
Changes to his skin are due to allergies he is said to have suffered after returning from the Vatican, where he attended Pope Francis' funeral on Apr 26. His condition is improving, added Jokowi's aide, Syarif Muhammad Fitriansyah.
Analysts told CNA that Kaesang will likely continue to lead the party while Widodo supports him from behind the scenes as part of efforts to strengthen his political dynasty.
'This means that Jokowi will maximise his political power through Kaesang,' said political analyst Adi Prayitno from Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah.
Besides Kaesang, the youngest of three children, Widodo's oldest child and son-in-law are also in politics.
Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 37, is Indonesia's current vice-president while North Sumatra governor Bobby Nasution, 33, is married to Jokowi's daughter.
Analysts said Kaesang will most likely be re-elected PSI chairman. Widodo, on the other hand, does not need to be its chairman in order to have influence in the party, they said.
He will likely continue to support Kaesang and guide him, given the latter's limited experience in politics, said Ray Rangkuti, director of Lingkar Madani think tank, which focuses on safeguarding democracy and assessing policies.
Nicky Fahrizal, a political analyst with the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Jokowi could take on an advisory board role, similar to former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's role in the Democratic Party, which is led by his son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.
'Such a pattern is not new, and former President Suharto also held a similar role in the Golkar party,' said Nicky.
'Because Indonesian politics has not gone through many good reforms, the way political dynasties operate is not much different.'
Suharto was Indonesia's second and longest-serving president. During his 31-year regime which lasted until 1998, Golkar was Indonesia's largest and most influential party. Some of his children were members of Golkar, but none held the role of chairperson.
Besides PSI, there has also been talk of Jokowi possibly joining Golkar, though no concrete developments have emerged.
Following the resignation of its leader Airlangga Hartarto in August 2024, Golkar appointed Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, a key Jokowi ally, as its chairman.
Among other things, analysts noted that Prabowo, who has often stated that his presidential win was only possible due to Jokowi's support, has been meeting with former President Megawati Soekarnoputri.
She is the chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which expelled Widodo, Gibran and Bobby for failing to back its presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo in the 2024 election.
PDI-P holds the most seats in parliament and is the biggest party outside of Prabowo's coalition.
On Prabowo appearing to be mending ties with Megawati, Ray said: 'Of course, Prabowo is trying to approach Megawati, because she has a party.'
While the PSI will serve as a political tool for the Widodo family if either Gibran or Kaesang decides to run in future elections, there is 'still a long way' to go, said political analyst Adi from Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah.
Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a researcher at the Research Centre for Politics at the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency, wrote in a commentary that PSI's 'dramatic shift' from a progressive millennial party to one centred around the personality cult of Jokowi and his family has alienated many of its earlier supporters.
'But that shift may have created a mutually beneficial relationship between Jokowi and the political party,' he wrote in the commentary published by the University of Melbourne on Tuesday.
'The only problem is that PSI's dismal performance in the 2019 and 2024 national legislative elections casts doubt on its suitability as a key political vehicle for Jokowi in the future.'
In 2019, PSI received 1.89 per cent of the national vote. It improved its performance in 2024 by gaining 2.81 per cent of votes, but this was still below the threshold of 4 per cent to secure a seat in parliament.
For now, it appears Widodo has the ambition to strengthen his political dynasty but may not possess the means, analysts said.
'In Indonesian politics, there are three main elements one must have. Firstly, one needs to have a political party or a mass organisation with a large following,' said Ray.