Jeffrey Epstein is splitting MAGA. Will he sink Trump and Republicans?
For the first time, there is a very real threat to Trump's perceived infallibility among the most devoted.
The fight, which began with a joint FBI-Department of Justice memo declaring that Epstein's sought after 'client list' does not exist and that the disgraced financer did in fact commit suicide in 2019 has escalated in recent days.
Last Wednesday, after previously attempting to put the issue to rest, Trump took aim at those within his own party who want to shine light on the investigation, calling them 'stupid Republicans' and saying they fell for a 'hoax.'
Trump continued, focusing his ire on the MAGA universe, describing them as 'PAST supporters' and 'weaklings' who 'bought into this bullshit.'
However, while Trump's fury has previously been able to coax most hardline Republicans to fall in line — and some like Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk have rushed to his defense in the wake of a Wall Street Journal report detailing an alleged letter Trump sent Epstein in 2003 — this time appears different.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), as well as Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have all called for further investigations or transparency into Epstein, something Trump belatedly called for from Attorney General Pam Bondi.
And far-right influencer Laura Loomer, who also pushed back against the Wall Street Journal article, went on record to say she thinks Trump's botched handling of the Epstein issue could 'consume his presidency' and outright rejected Trump's insistence that it is a hoax.
To that end, polling is already reflecting the threat to Republicans' midterm hopes from the administration's mishandling of the Epstein situation.
Indeed, a majority (54 percent) of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue, while less than one-fifth (17 percent) approve — a number that would look worse if not for 35 percent of Republicans approving, per Reuters-Ipsos polling.
Similarly, clear majorities of adults think the administration is hiding Epstein's client list (69 percent), despite Trump's repeated denials of a list's existence, and hiding information on Epstein's death (60 percent).
Notably, majorities of Republicans agree, with more than 6 in 10 (62 percent) believing the administration is hiding the client list, and 55 percent thinking information on Epstein's death is being covered up.
These findings have also been seen in other recent polls.
According to Rasmussen, a conservative pollster, a majority (56 percent) of likely voters do not believe the FBI and Justice Department are telling the truth about Epstein, just 21 percent believe the government has been honest.
Ironically, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound for the administration.
Having fanned the flames of a government-wide cover up of Epstein and his 'client list' for nearly a decade, Trump and others created the mess they now find themselves in and are struggling to dig out of.
Very few, if any, people outside of Trump's hard-core base were demanding the release of the Epstein files, yet Trump, Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy Dan Bongino spent years feeding conspiracy theories to Trump's base.
And once in power, they continued teasing the release of more information, only to underwhelm, backtrack, or deny their previous statements.
Of course, if there is no list, it would behoove the administration to say so. Yet no one — least of all Trump, Bondi or Patel — seem willing to admit that the conspiracy theories they've pushed for years may be false.
Growing discontent at the administration's handling of the Epstein issue is also taking its toll on Trump personally.
Following the joint FBI-DOJ memo, Trump's approval rating dropped to negative 17 points from negative 11 points, per Economist/YouGov polling conducted both before and after the memo's release.
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen's head pollster, called their results 'brutal' and said that Republicans could lose both chambers of Congress over the issue.
At this point, Mitchell may be spot on.
A sufficient number of Republican hardliners appear willing to join with Democrats to force a House vote on releasing all available information on Epstein, putting Republicans in a lose-lose situation.
If they go along with the vote, they will anger Trump, but if they do not, they open themselves up to attacks that they're 'protecting' Epstein.
Republican angst was evident last Thursday when Politico ran an article noting that many Republican House members were 'eager' to leave Washington for summer recess ahead of a potential vote that would force them to go on record.
To be sure, Republicans already needed virtually everything to break their way if they wanted to hold onto the House next year.
Historically, the party in control tends to lose seats in midterms, and Democrats currently sit at plus 3 points in the generic congressional ballot per RealClearPolitics polling aggregator, as well as Trump's own pollster Tony Fabrizio according to a memo released by Politico.
But now, the Republicans have to deal with the possibility that Trump voters simply do not come out to vote due to their anger over the Epstein files.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Trump's base will let the Epstein issue die between now and midterms, and Trump's order to Bondi to release pertinent grand jury documents may ensure that it remains in the spotlight.
Put another way, if Trump cannot satisfy his most ardent supporters and assure them that there is no cover up, which currently seems unlikely, Republicans may pay a considerable political price for the administration's missteps.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, 'America: Unite or Die.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
26 minutes ago
- New York Post
Brute on FBI's ‘most wanted' list for tossing cinderblock during anti-ICE riots finally busted at border
The masked brute accused of hurling concrete blocks at federal agents during the violent anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles has finally been arrested — getting cuffed at the border by one of the agents he targeted, authorities said. Elpidio Reyna — who was put on the FBI's wanted list over last month's chaos — was busted Wednesday at the US-Mexico border. 'He was taken into custody by a US Border Patrol officer who was inside one of the vehicles damaged in the attack — a brave law enforcement officer who could have been killed in last month's dangerous and reckless attack,' US Attorney Bill Essayli said. Advertisement 4 Elpidio Reyna, who was on the FBI's wanted list, was captured at the US-Mexico border. @USAttyEssayli/X 4 The FBI released images of the suspect and asked for the public's help. FBI Los Angeles The 39-year-old Compton man was allegedly caught on camera brazenly throwing the blocks at FBI vehicles as they drove by him in Paramount on June 8. Advertisement Reyna had initially fled to Mexico after authorities blasted out images of him to track him down, authorities said. 4 The FBI released other images of the suspect wanted during the Los Angeles anti-ICE riots. FBI Los Angeles He was detained by Mexican authorities in the state of Sinaloa earlier this month but later agreed to surrender to the FBI. Reyna was taken into custody at the San Ysidro Port of Entry on a felony charge of assault on a federal officer, authorities said. Advertisement 4 A picture of the suspect lighting debris on fire during the anti-ICE Los Angeles riots. FBI Los Angeles 'To anyone who thinks they can attack federal officers and hide behind a mask or helmet, Reyna's arrest today proves we can find and charge anyone who violates federal law,' Essayli said. Attorney General Pamela Bondi hailed his arrest, saying, 'You can run, but you can not hide. If you attack a law enforcement officer, we'll find you.'
Chicago Tribune
26 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
Columbia University agrees to pay more than $220M in deal with Trump to restore federal funding
NEW YORK — Columbia University announced Wednesday it has reached a deal with the Trump administration to pay more than $220 million to the federal government to restore federal research money that was canceled in the name of combating antisemitism on campus. Under the agreement, the Ivy League school will pay a $200 million settlement over three years, the university said. It will also pay $21 million to resolve alleged civil rights violations against Jewish employees that occurred following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, the White House said. 'This agreement marks an important step forward after a period of sustained federal scrutiny and institutional uncertainty,' acting University President Claire Shipman said. The school had been threatened with the potential loss of billions of dollars in government support, including more than $400 million in grants canceled earlier this year. The administration pulled the funding because of what it described as the university's failure to squelch antisemitism on campus during the Israel-Hamas war. Columbia has since agreed to a series of demands laid out by the Republican administration, including overhauling the university's student disciplinary process and applying a contentious, federally endorsed definition of antisemitism not only to teaching but to a disciplinary committee that has been investigating students critical of Israel. Wednesday's agreement — which does not include an admission of wrongdoing — codifies those reforms while preserving the university's autonomy, Shipman said. Education Secretary Linda McMahon called the deal 'a seismic shift in our nation's fight to hold institutions that accept American taxpayer dollars accountable for antisemitic discrimination and harassment.' 'Columbia's reforms are a roadmap for elite universities that wish to regain the confidence of the American public by renewing their commitment to truth-seeking, merit, and civil debate,' McMahon said in a statement. As part of the agreement, Columbia agreed to a series of changes previously announced in March, including reviewing its Middle East curriculum to make sure it was 'comprehensive and balanced' and appointing new faculty to its Institute for Israel and Jewish Studies. It also promised to end programs 'that promote unlawful efforts to achieve race-based outcomes, quotes, diversity targets or similar efforts.' The university will also have to issue a report to a monitor assuring that its programs 'do not promote unlawful DEI goals.' In a post Wednesday night on his Truth Social platform, President Donald Trump said Columbia had 'committed to ending their ridiculous DEI policies, admitting students based ONLY on MERIT, and protecting the Civil Liberties of their students on campus.' He also warned, without being specific, 'Numerous other Higher Education Institutions that have hurt so many, and been so unfair and unjust, and have wrongly spent federal money, much of it from our government, are upcoming.' The pact comes after months of uncertainty and fraught negotiations at the more than 270-year-old university. It was among the first targets of Trump's crackdown on pro-Palestinian campus protests and on colleges that he asserts have allowed Jewish students be threatened and harassed. Columbia's own antisemitism task force found last summer that Jewish students had faced verbal abuse, ostracism and classroom humiliation during the spring 2024 demonstrations. Other Jewish students took part in the protests, however, and protest leaders maintain they aren't targeting Jews but rather criticizing the Israeli government and its war in Gaza. Columbia's leadership — a revolving door of three interim presidents in the last year — has declared that the campus climate needs to change. Also in the settlement is an agreement to ask prospective international students 'questions designed to elicit their reasons for wishing to study in the United States,' and establishes processes to make sure all students are committed to 'civil discourse.' In a move that would potentially make it easier for the Trump administration to deport students who participate in protests, Columbia promised to provide the government with information, upon request, of disciplinary actions involving student-visa holders resulting in expulsions or suspensions. Columbia on Tuesday announced it would suspend, expel or revoke degrees from more than 70 students who participated in a pro-Palestinian demonstration inside the main library in May and an encampment during alumni weekend last year. The pressure on Columbia began with a series of funding cuts. Then Mahmoud Khalil, a former graduate student who had been a visible figure in the protests, became the first person detained in the Trump administration's push to deport pro-Palestinian activists who aren't U.S. citizens. Next came searches of some university residences amid a federal Justice Department investigation into whether Columbia concealed 'illegal aliens' on campus. The interim president at the time responded that the university was committed to upholding the law. Columbia was an early test case for the Trump administration as it sought closer oversight of universities that the Republican president views as bastions of liberalism. Yet it soon was overshadowed by Harvard University, which became the first higher education institution to defy Trump's demands and fight back in court. The Trump administration has used federal research funding as its primary lever in its campaign to reshape higher education. More than $2 billion in total has also been frozen at Cornell, Northwestern, Brown and Princeton universities. Administration officials pulled $175 million from the University of Pennsylvania in March over a dispute around women's sports. They restored it when school officials agreed to update records set by transgender swimmer Lia Thomas and change their policies. The administration also is looking beyond private universities. University of Virginia President James Ryan agreed to resign in June under pressure from a U.S. Justice Department investigation into diversity, equity and inclusion practices. A similar investigation was opened this month at George Mason University.
The Hill
26 minutes ago
- The Hill
Why are data nerds racing to save US government statistics?
The data nerds are fighting back. After watching data sets be altered or disappear from U.S. government websites in unprecedented ways after President Trump began his second term, an army of outside statisticians, demographers and computer scientists have joined forces to capture, preserve and share data sets, sometimes clandestinely. Their goal is to make sure they are available in the future, believing that democracy suffers when policymakers don't have reliable data and that national statistics should be above partisan politics. 'There are such smart, passionate people who care deeply about not only the Census Bureau, but all the statistical agencies, and ensuring the integrity of the statistical system. And that gives me hope, even during these challenging times,' Mary Jo Mitchell, director of government and public affairs for the research nonprofit the Population Association of America, said this week during an online public data-users conference. The threats to the U.S. data infrastructure since January have come not only from the disappearance or modification of data related to gender, sexual orientation, health, climate change and diversity, among other topics, but also from job cuts of workers and contractors who had been guardians of restricted-access data at statistical agencies, the data experts said. 'There are trillions of bytes of data files, and I can't even imagine how many public dollars were spent to collect those data,' Jennifer Park, a study director for the Committee on National Statistics, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, said during the conference hosted by the Association of Public Data Users (APDU). 'But right now, they're sitting someplace that is inaccessible because there are no staff to appropriately manage those data,' Park added later. 'Gender' switched to 'sex' In February, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) official public portal for health data, was taken down entirely but subsequently went back up. Around the same time, when a query was made to access certain public data from the U.S. Census Bureau's most comprehensive survey of American life, users for several days got a response that said the area was 'unavailable due to maintenance' before access was restored. Researchers Janet Freilich and Aaron Kesselheim examined 232 federal public health data sets that had been modified in the first quarter of this year and found that almost half had been 'substantially altered,' with the majority having the word 'gender' switched to 'sex,' they wrote this month in The Lancet medical journal. One of the most difficult tasks has been figuring out what's been changed since many of the alterations weren't recorded in documentation. Beth Jarosz, senior program director at the Population Reference Bureau, thought she was in good shape since she had previously downloaded data she needed from the National Survey of Children's Health for a February conference where she was speaking, even though the data had become unavailable. But then she realized she had failed to download the questionnaire and later discovered that a question about discrimination based on gender or sexual identity had been removed. 'It's the one thing my team didn't have,' Jarosz said at this week's APDU conference. 'And they edited the questionnaire document, which should have been a historical record.' Among the groups that have formed this year to collect and preserve the federal data are the Federation of American Scientists' which monitors changes to federal data sets; the University of Chicago Library's Data Mirror website, which backs up and hosts at-risk data sets; the Data Rescue Project, which serves as a clearinghouse for data rescue-related efforts; and the Federal Data Forum, which shares information about what federal statistics have gone missing or been modified — a job also being done by the American Statistical Association. The outside data warriors also are quietly reaching out to workers at statistical agencies and urging them to back up any data that is restricted from the public. 'You can't trust that this data is going to be here tomorrow,' said Lena Bohman, a founding member of the Data Rescue Project. Experts' committee unofficially revived Separately, a group of outside experts has unofficially revived a long-running U.S. Census Bureau advisory committee that was killed by the Trump administration in March. Census Bureau officials won't be attending the Census Scientific Advisory Committee meeting in September, since the Commerce Department, which oversees the agency, eliminated it. But the advisory committee will forward its recommendations to the bureau, and demographer Allison Plyer said she has heard that some agency officials are excited by the committee's re-emergence, even if it's outside official channels. 'We will send them recommendations but we don't expect them to respond since that would be frowned upon,' Plyer, chief demographer at The Data Center in New Orleans, said. 'They just aren't getting any outside expertise … and they want expertise, which is understandable from nerds.'
