Jeffrey Epstein is splitting MAGA. Will he sink Trump and Republicans?
For the first time, there is a very real threat to Trump's perceived infallibility among the most devoted.
The fight, which began with a joint FBI-Department of Justice memo declaring that Epstein's sought after 'client list' does not exist and that the disgraced financer did in fact commit suicide in 2019 has escalated in recent days.
Last Wednesday, after previously attempting to put the issue to rest, Trump took aim at those within his own party who want to shine light on the investigation, calling them 'stupid Republicans' and saying they fell for a 'hoax.'
Trump continued, focusing his ire on the MAGA universe, describing them as 'PAST supporters' and 'weaklings' who 'bought into this bullshit.'
However, while Trump's fury has previously been able to coax most hardline Republicans to fall in line — and some like Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk have rushed to his defense in the wake of a Wall Street Journal report detailing an alleged letter Trump sent Epstein in 2003 — this time appears different.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), as well as Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have all called for further investigations or transparency into Epstein, something Trump belatedly called for from Attorney General Pam Bondi.
And far-right influencer Laura Loomer, who also pushed back against the Wall Street Journal article, went on record to say she thinks Trump's botched handling of the Epstein issue could 'consume his presidency' and outright rejected Trump's insistence that it is a hoax.
To that end, polling is already reflecting the threat to Republicans' midterm hopes from the administration's mishandling of the Epstein situation.
Indeed, a majority (54 percent) of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue, while less than one-fifth (17 percent) approve — a number that would look worse if not for 35 percent of Republicans approving, per Reuters-Ipsos polling.
Similarly, clear majorities of adults think the administration is hiding Epstein's client list (69 percent), despite Trump's repeated denials of a list's existence, and hiding information on Epstein's death (60 percent).
Notably, majorities of Republicans agree, with more than 6 in 10 (62 percent) believing the administration is hiding the client list, and 55 percent thinking information on Epstein's death is being covered up.
These findings have also been seen in other recent polls.
According to Rasmussen, a conservative pollster, a majority (56 percent) of likely voters do not believe the FBI and Justice Department are telling the truth about Epstein, just 21 percent believe the government has been honest.
Ironically, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound for the administration.
Having fanned the flames of a government-wide cover up of Epstein and his 'client list' for nearly a decade, Trump and others created the mess they now find themselves in and are struggling to dig out of.
Very few, if any, people outside of Trump's hard-core base were demanding the release of the Epstein files, yet Trump, Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy Dan Bongino spent years feeding conspiracy theories to Trump's base.
And once in power, they continued teasing the release of more information, only to underwhelm, backtrack, or deny their previous statements.
Of course, if there is no list, it would behoove the administration to say so. Yet no one — least of all Trump, Bondi or Patel — seem willing to admit that the conspiracy theories they've pushed for years may be false.
Growing discontent at the administration's handling of the Epstein issue is also taking its toll on Trump personally.
Following the joint FBI-DOJ memo, Trump's approval rating dropped to negative 17 points from negative 11 points, per Economist/YouGov polling conducted both before and after the memo's release.
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen's head pollster, called their results 'brutal' and said that Republicans could lose both chambers of Congress over the issue.
At this point, Mitchell may be spot on.
A sufficient number of Republican hardliners appear willing to join with Democrats to force a House vote on releasing all available information on Epstein, putting Republicans in a lose-lose situation.
If they go along with the vote, they will anger Trump, but if they do not, they open themselves up to attacks that they're 'protecting' Epstein.
Republican angst was evident last Thursday when Politico ran an article noting that many Republican House members were 'eager' to leave Washington for summer recess ahead of a potential vote that would force them to go on record.
To be sure, Republicans already needed virtually everything to break their way if they wanted to hold onto the House next year.
Historically, the party in control tends to lose seats in midterms, and Democrats currently sit at plus 3 points in the generic congressional ballot per RealClearPolitics polling aggregator, as well as Trump's own pollster Tony Fabrizio according to a memo released by Politico.
But now, the Republicans have to deal with the possibility that Trump voters simply do not come out to vote due to their anger over the Epstein files.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Trump's base will let the Epstein issue die between now and midterms, and Trump's order to Bondi to release pertinent grand jury documents may ensure that it remains in the spotlight.
Put another way, if Trump cannot satisfy his most ardent supporters and assure them that there is no cover up, which currently seems unlikely, Republicans may pay a considerable political price for the administration's missteps.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, 'America: Unite or Die.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
8 minutes ago
- New York Post
Biden's top aides lived in ‘fog of denial' over president's cognitive decline: insider
As lawmakers continue their investigation into what former President Joe Biden's inner circle knew about his alleged cognitive decline, one insider who's written about the issue says he continues to be stunned by the 'fog of denial' that surrounded the aging president. 'They [just] convinced themselves, in effect, they believed what they wanted to believe instead of their lying eyes, even during the debate when everything went south,' said Chris Whipple, author of the book 'Uncharted,' which chronicled the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. Advertisement Whipple interviewed several members of Biden's inner circle in the aftermath of his widely criticized debate performance, which ultimately led to the suspension of his re-election campaign. Former chief of staff Ron Klain, who reportedly told House lawmakers this week that Biden had grown 'more forgetful' in office, was among sources who opened up for Whipple's book. 'Despite that devastating debate, which was lights out, game over, everybody knew it, Klain was still all in on Joe Biden's nomination and re-election and somehow thought he could beat Trump,' Whipple told 'America's Newsroom' Friday. 'He's been in the doghouse with Joe Biden and his inner circle ever since he was devastatingly candid to me about Joe Biden's condition in that pre-debate prep at Camp David.' Advertisement Author Chris Whipple said he was stunned by the denial he saw after interviewing former President Biden's top aides about his alleged cognitive decline. AP House Republicans have launched a probe into the former president's cognitive health and have called on former Biden administration officials to testify about what they witnessed. Most of those called have pleaded the Fifth and refused to answer lawmakers' questions, including the former president's physician. But based on his conversations, Whipple does not believe there was a secretive scheme to control the presidency. Advertisement Former Biden chief of staff Ron Klain leaving an interview with the House Oversight Committee Chairman on July 24, 2025. Getty Images 'The notion that this was somehow, you know, Biden's last year was 'Weekend at Bernie's' and that there he was non compos mentis and there was a cabal running the country with an autopen is just silly,' he said. 'The notion that they're [Republicans are] going to be able to prove that there was this dastardly cover-up on the part of Biden's inner circle is just crazy to me. I think the answer is that this thing goes nowhere.'
UPI
9 minutes ago
- UPI
Calif., Illinois may fight new Texas congressional maps with their own
1 of 2 | California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he may seek to change his state's congressional maps if Texas redraws its borders. File photo by Jonathan Alcorn/UPI | License Photo July 26 (UPI) -- As the Texas Legislature plans to redraw congressional maps in an effort to increase Republican members in the U.S. House, the governors of California and Illinois may devise their own new borders. Traditionally, the boundaries are changed every 10 years with the latest U.S. Census data but Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has called a special legislative session after pressure from the White House to preserve the GOP majority in the U.S. House. President Donald Trump believes an additional five seats could be created by changing the borders. Of the state's 38 districts, 25 are held by Republicans. Democrats hold seats in big cities of Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, McAllen, San Antonio. Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans hold a 219-212 advantage in the House with four vacancies -- three Democrats who died and one Republican who resigned this week. More than a dozen Texas House members flew to Illinois and California -- two blue states -- on Friday for a meeting with California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzkeper, during which they revealed their intentions. "Donald Trump called up Governor Abbott for one simple reason: to rig the 2026 elections. California's moral high ground means nothing if we're powerless because of it," Newsom said after meeting with Democrats from the Texas House. "This moment requires us to be prepared to fight fire with fire. Whether that's a special election, a ballot initiative, a bill, a fight in court. If they proceed in Texas, we will be ready." "This is not a bluff. This is real, and trust me, it's more real after listening to these leaders today, how existential this is," Newsom said. As the most populous state in the nation, California has 43 Democratic members of the house and nine Republican members, while Illinois is represented by 14 Democrats and three Republicans. "Everything is on the table," Pritzer said. The Illinois governor said he doesn't want to redraw the maps but "if they're going to take this drastic action, then we might also take drastic action to respond." "We want the country to understand [that] what's going on in Texas is a national battle," State Rep. Richard Pena Raymond, a Democrat from Laredo, said. Raymond told Pritzner that redistricting is "clearly aimed at affecting the entire country." Responsibility for determining Congressional district maps differs from state to state. In California, an independent commission approved by voters in 2010 works on the maps. Illinois maps, on the other hand, are put together by the state lawmakers have been drawn strongly to favor the Democrat Party in the state. Newsom said he is considering having a referendum to change the rules before the 2026 election, unless the Legislature comes up with another solution, which would take two-thirds of legislators voting in favor of. "We have to fight fire with fire," Newsom said. Other states Two other Democratic governors are considering new maps -- Phil Murphy in New Jersey and Kathy Hochul in New York. "There's other states that are violating the rules," Hochul said during a news conference on Thursday. "I'm going to look at it closely with Hakeem Jeffries," a New York member of the House, as well has House minority leader. In New York, Democrats have a 19-7 advantage as a result of their districting maps. "It's deplorable," Murphy said during an interview at the summer meeting of the bipartisan National Governors Association in Colorado Springs. "If they're going to play these games, we're going to have to be just as aggressive. We can't bring a knife to a gunfight." Democrats hold nine of the 12 seats in New Jersey. In Florida, the state Supreme Court on July 17 upheld its newest congressional map. He said he believes the state had been "malappropriated" and redistricting "would be appropriate" in a few years. Florida's congressional delegation is controlled by Republicans, 20-8. In Ohio, legislators are required to redraw maps before 2026. The GOP has 10 of the 15 seats. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis is against redistricting more frequently. The state's maps are overseen by an independent commission and it's eight U.S. House seats are evenly split 4-4. Texas situation Texas last redrew its borders in mid-cycle in 2003 after the GOP gained control of both chambers for the first time since Reconstruction. In Texas, Abbott noted a July 7 letter from the Justice Department that said majority Black and Hispanic districts in Dallas need to be redrawn based on a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit last year. The DOJ said those districts are "unconstitutional racial gerrymanders," but Abbott argued the opposite in 2021. In federal court in El Paso, he argued race had not been taken into account there. "We are no longer compelled to have coalition districts," Abbott said in an interview with KDFW in Dallas. U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, a San Antonio Democrat, appeared at a state House hearing. "That's what's at stake here, whether you all are going to work for the people of Texas, as we used to do, to try to do, or whether you take your commandments from Donald Trump and the White House," Castro said. "I hope that you all will choose to do the business of the people of Texas, as this body has a history of being independent from the federal government."
Politico
9 minutes ago
- Politico
Democrats desperately look for a redistricting edge in California, New York and Maryland
Hochul's political allies believe there is little upside to drawing new lines. 'I understand those in New York who are watching what's happening in Texas and Ohio want to offset their unfair advantage,' said New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs. But 'the constitution seems pretty clear that this redistricting process should be done every 10 years. I don't know where someone could interpret it as something you can do every two years.' Beyond Texas, Republicans have their eye on picking up seats in other states like Missouri and Florida — which would put Democrats in a tough spot, given they don't have as much leeway to squeeze out extra seats. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy was noncommittal when asked by reporters earlier this week if he plans to pursue redistricting, noting that it's 'too early to make any definitive statement about it.' But he echoed what many other Democrats across the country have said when talking about the possibility of early redistricting: 'Never bring a knife to a gunfight.' New Jersey has its own constitutional impediment, which states that congressional districts, which are drawn by an independent commission, 'shall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.' Even if they were able to circumvent the state constitution, Democrats already have the majority in the New Jersey congressional delegation, and just two seats — the 7th, held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., and the 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou — are considered battlegrounds. Even some other Hail Mary options seem off the table. State lawmakers in Washington, Minnesota and Colorado balked at the suggestion they should pursue drawing new maps in the next few months. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, accompanied by several members of the Texas state Legislature, calls for a new way for California to redraw it's voting districts during a news conference In Sacramento, Calif., Friday July 25, 2025. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP 'It's just not in the cards,' said Washington House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon, citing the requirement that a two-thirds majority is needed in both the state House and Senate to reconvene the state's bipartisan redistricting commission. And Minnesota State Sen. Aric Nesbitt shut down the idea quickly: 'We're not power-crats, we're Democrats. We should do things that improve democracy, even if that means sometimes we don't get our way.' Democrats hold the governorship and state Senate in Minnesota, but Republicans narrowly control the House.
