Jeffrey Epstein is splitting MAGA. Will he sink Trump and Republicans?
For the first time, there is a very real threat to Trump's perceived infallibility among the most devoted.
The fight, which began with a joint FBI-Department of Justice memo declaring that Epstein's sought after 'client list' does not exist and that the disgraced financer did in fact commit suicide in 2019 has escalated in recent days.
Last Wednesday, after previously attempting to put the issue to rest, Trump took aim at those within his own party who want to shine light on the investigation, calling them 'stupid Republicans' and saying they fell for a 'hoax.'
Trump continued, focusing his ire on the MAGA universe, describing them as 'PAST supporters' and 'weaklings' who 'bought into this bullshit.'
However, while Trump's fury has previously been able to coax most hardline Republicans to fall in line — and some like Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk have rushed to his defense in the wake of a Wall Street Journal report detailing an alleged letter Trump sent Epstein in 2003 — this time appears different.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), as well as Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) have all called for further investigations or transparency into Epstein, something Trump belatedly called for from Attorney General Pam Bondi.
And far-right influencer Laura Loomer, who also pushed back against the Wall Street Journal article, went on record to say she thinks Trump's botched handling of the Epstein issue could 'consume his presidency' and outright rejected Trump's insistence that it is a hoax.
To that end, polling is already reflecting the threat to Republicans' midterm hopes from the administration's mishandling of the Epstein situation.
Indeed, a majority (54 percent) of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue, while less than one-fifth (17 percent) approve — a number that would look worse if not for 35 percent of Republicans approving, per Reuters-Ipsos polling.
Similarly, clear majorities of adults think the administration is hiding Epstein's client list (69 percent), despite Trump's repeated denials of a list's existence, and hiding information on Epstein's death (60 percent).
Notably, majorities of Republicans agree, with more than 6 in 10 (62 percent) believing the administration is hiding the client list, and 55 percent thinking information on Epstein's death is being covered up.
These findings have also been seen in other recent polls.
According to Rasmussen, a conservative pollster, a majority (56 percent) of likely voters do not believe the FBI and Justice Department are telling the truth about Epstein, just 21 percent believe the government has been honest.
Ironically, this is an entirely self-inflicted wound for the administration.
Having fanned the flames of a government-wide cover up of Epstein and his 'client list' for nearly a decade, Trump and others created the mess they now find themselves in and are struggling to dig out of.
Very few, if any, people outside of Trump's hard-core base were demanding the release of the Epstein files, yet Trump, Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy Dan Bongino spent years feeding conspiracy theories to Trump's base.
And once in power, they continued teasing the release of more information, only to underwhelm, backtrack, or deny their previous statements.
Of course, if there is no list, it would behoove the administration to say so. Yet no one — least of all Trump, Bondi or Patel — seem willing to admit that the conspiracy theories they've pushed for years may be false.
Growing discontent at the administration's handling of the Epstein issue is also taking its toll on Trump personally.
Following the joint FBI-DOJ memo, Trump's approval rating dropped to negative 17 points from negative 11 points, per Economist/YouGov polling conducted both before and after the memo's release.
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen's head pollster, called their results 'brutal' and said that Republicans could lose both chambers of Congress over the issue.
At this point, Mitchell may be spot on.
A sufficient number of Republican hardliners appear willing to join with Democrats to force a House vote on releasing all available information on Epstein, putting Republicans in a lose-lose situation.
If they go along with the vote, they will anger Trump, but if they do not, they open themselves up to attacks that they're 'protecting' Epstein.
Republican angst was evident last Thursday when Politico ran an article noting that many Republican House members were 'eager' to leave Washington for summer recess ahead of a potential vote that would force them to go on record.
To be sure, Republicans already needed virtually everything to break their way if they wanted to hold onto the House next year.
Historically, the party in control tends to lose seats in midterms, and Democrats currently sit at plus 3 points in the generic congressional ballot per RealClearPolitics polling aggregator, as well as Trump's own pollster Tony Fabrizio according to a memo released by Politico.
But now, the Republicans have to deal with the possibility that Trump voters simply do not come out to vote due to their anger over the Epstein files.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Trump's base will let the Epstein issue die between now and midterms, and Trump's order to Bondi to release pertinent grand jury documents may ensure that it remains in the spotlight.
Put another way, if Trump cannot satisfy his most ardent supporters and assure them that there is no cover up, which currently seems unlikely, Republicans may pay a considerable political price for the administration's missteps.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, 'America: Unite or Die.'
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