Small caps are back baby
At first, it was deliberate. Then it became inertia. I also forgot the password to my trading account and took it as divine intervention. But markets have a way of dragging you back in - and lately, they've been anything but subtle. Something's stirring in small-cap land - and it's not just the usual background hum.
Just two weeks ago, the United States Department of Defence quietly became the largest shareholder in MP Materials, which owns the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only rare earths operation of scale on US soil. A sometimes canny and mostly sober colleague of mine, Bill McConnell, wrote about it immediately in Bulls N Bears. He was onto it the very day it broke. Others chimed in later, perhaps a tad slow to the party, but that's not their fault. Most people get there eventually.
Then Apple Inc jumped in, slapping another half a billion dollars on the table for equity, taking the total cheque for MP to a cool US$1 billion - all in under a week. MP's share price doubled, adding US$5 billion to its market cap pretty much overnight.
That alone sparked the headlines, but for Dollar Bill, the real leg twitch came shortly after through a combination of events. The ASX 200 and the All Ords smashed record highs last week, the latter sailing through 9000 points for the first time. These weren't polite moves. These were rafter-shaking, hold-my-beer kind of surges.
Also, copper prices punched out a new record peak this month at the same time that silver nudged just under US$40 for the first time in more than a decade. Gold remains stubbornly above the $5000 mark.
'Altogether, it's starting to feel like a genuine inflection point, or the world's most expensive coincidence. Mark Twain said history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Right now? It's humming a very familiar tune.'
Dollar Bill's even overheard a few stuffed suits at the club whispering about a revival in lithium - and for once, they might be onto something. Lithium doyen's Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals have both surged more than 50 per cent in the past month. And when the big boys start moving, the minnows tend to follow. Just take a look at lithium junior Galan, which has hiked from about 9c to 14c lately.
Then there are the IPOs, those long-forgotten unicorns, which appear to be sniffing the morning air again. Apart from the odd ETF, 2025 has been a desert for new ASX listings - the driest year in more than a decade. But lately? There's been the sound of hooves… and they're moving.
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The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Bull market sends mining summit back to golden age
Goldminers have long hogged the limelight at the Diggers and Dealers mining forum. The annual conference in the remote mining town of Kalgoorlie, in the Western Australian Goldfields region, is the glittering highlight of the resources industry's events calendar. Up-and-coming miners prize their shot to flaunt their wares to investors, while the majors covet the chance to snag an award at the glitzy gala dinner. In recent years, goldminers have been supplanted at the top of the roster by the battery minerals crowd, buoyed by the burgeoning demand for ores like lithium and nickel essential to the manufacturing of electric vehicles. But a record run has sent the price of bullion soaring and investors flocking back to the precious metal. Amid an upswing in mergers and acquisitions activity among goldminers, the largest has been Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining. Northern Star's Super Pit dominates the Kalgoorlie landscape. The ASX giant's largest asset is a popular tourist destination, with thousands of visitors drawn to the pit's public lookout each year to watch colossal mining trucks wind their way up the serpentine access track or see scheduled blasts shake the sheer rock walls below. But the De Grey deal handed Northern Star a project that could dwarf the 130-year-old deposit, which has been plagued by productivity and cost headwinds in the past year. The newly-acquired Hemi deposit, in the iron-ore dominated Pilbara region, contains an estimated 11 million ounces of gold. That would fetch more than $55 billion at current prices. The project, which is still seeking regulatory approval, has a slightly lower grade than the Super Pit at 1.3 grams per tonne. But given the ravenous appetite for gold, even much lower grade deposits will attract interest at the Diggers conference. Forum chair Jim Walker says the mood in the industry is upbeat. "Gold's still going very, very well, lithium is coming back up again," he told AAP. "So it's going to be a very positive conference from that point of view." Lithium miners have been buoyed after a recovery in spodumene prices, after a global rout carved more than 90 per cent off the price of the mineral. Prices have climbed 50 per cent since they bottomed out in June, with the stronger-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles now driving speculation lithium production will fall short of soaring demand. But share prices for former market darlings IGO, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources still languish well below the heights of two years ago. While gold presenters now outweigh lithium at the conference, battery minerals producers will still make their presence felt. Now in its 34th year, the forum is just as important to the Kalgoorlie economy as it is for micro-cap explorers looking to get their first project up. More than 3000 people will flock to the town, swelling its population more than 10 per cent. At Wednesday's gala night more than 1300 attendees will be catered for and a plane-load of staff flown in to serve them, given the limited staff and facilities in Kalgoorlie. Marquees will be erected to house 154 exhibitors, while 65 presenters will hold court over three days. It's no challenge for forum director Suzanne Christie, who has been organising the tricky logistics of the event from day one, Mr Walker said. Goldminers have long hogged the limelight at the Diggers and Dealers mining forum. The annual conference in the remote mining town of Kalgoorlie, in the Western Australian Goldfields region, is the glittering highlight of the resources industry's events calendar. Up-and-coming miners prize their shot to flaunt their wares to investors, while the majors covet the chance to snag an award at the glitzy gala dinner. In recent years, goldminers have been supplanted at the top of the roster by the battery minerals crowd, buoyed by the burgeoning demand for ores like lithium and nickel essential to the manufacturing of electric vehicles. But a record run has sent the price of bullion soaring and investors flocking back to the precious metal. Amid an upswing in mergers and acquisitions activity among goldminers, the largest has been Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining. Northern Star's Super Pit dominates the Kalgoorlie landscape. The ASX giant's largest asset is a popular tourist destination, with thousands of visitors drawn to the pit's public lookout each year to watch colossal mining trucks wind their way up the serpentine access track or see scheduled blasts shake the sheer rock walls below. But the De Grey deal handed Northern Star a project that could dwarf the 130-year-old deposit, which has been plagued by productivity and cost headwinds in the past year. The newly-acquired Hemi deposit, in the iron-ore dominated Pilbara region, contains an estimated 11 million ounces of gold. That would fetch more than $55 billion at current prices. The project, which is still seeking regulatory approval, has a slightly lower grade than the Super Pit at 1.3 grams per tonne. But given the ravenous appetite for gold, even much lower grade deposits will attract interest at the Diggers conference. Forum chair Jim Walker says the mood in the industry is upbeat. "Gold's still going very, very well, lithium is coming back up again," he told AAP. "So it's going to be a very positive conference from that point of view." Lithium miners have been buoyed after a recovery in spodumene prices, after a global rout carved more than 90 per cent off the price of the mineral. Prices have climbed 50 per cent since they bottomed out in June, with the stronger-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles now driving speculation lithium production will fall short of soaring demand. But share prices for former market darlings IGO, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources still languish well below the heights of two years ago. While gold presenters now outweigh lithium at the conference, battery minerals producers will still make their presence felt. Now in its 34th year, the forum is just as important to the Kalgoorlie economy as it is for micro-cap explorers looking to get their first project up. More than 3000 people will flock to the town, swelling its population more than 10 per cent. At Wednesday's gala night more than 1300 attendees will be catered for and a plane-load of staff flown in to serve them, given the limited staff and facilities in Kalgoorlie. Marquees will be erected to house 154 exhibitors, while 65 presenters will hold court over three days. It's no challenge for forum director Suzanne Christie, who has been organising the tricky logistics of the event from day one, Mr Walker said. Goldminers have long hogged the limelight at the Diggers and Dealers mining forum. The annual conference in the remote mining town of Kalgoorlie, in the Western Australian Goldfields region, is the glittering highlight of the resources industry's events calendar. Up-and-coming miners prize their shot to flaunt their wares to investors, while the majors covet the chance to snag an award at the glitzy gala dinner. In recent years, goldminers have been supplanted at the top of the roster by the battery minerals crowd, buoyed by the burgeoning demand for ores like lithium and nickel essential to the manufacturing of electric vehicles. But a record run has sent the price of bullion soaring and investors flocking back to the precious metal. Amid an upswing in mergers and acquisitions activity among goldminers, the largest has been Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining. Northern Star's Super Pit dominates the Kalgoorlie landscape. The ASX giant's largest asset is a popular tourist destination, with thousands of visitors drawn to the pit's public lookout each year to watch colossal mining trucks wind their way up the serpentine access track or see scheduled blasts shake the sheer rock walls below. But the De Grey deal handed Northern Star a project that could dwarf the 130-year-old deposit, which has been plagued by productivity and cost headwinds in the past year. The newly-acquired Hemi deposit, in the iron-ore dominated Pilbara region, contains an estimated 11 million ounces of gold. That would fetch more than $55 billion at current prices. The project, which is still seeking regulatory approval, has a slightly lower grade than the Super Pit at 1.3 grams per tonne. But given the ravenous appetite for gold, even much lower grade deposits will attract interest at the Diggers conference. Forum chair Jim Walker says the mood in the industry is upbeat. "Gold's still going very, very well, lithium is coming back up again," he told AAP. "So it's going to be a very positive conference from that point of view." Lithium miners have been buoyed after a recovery in spodumene prices, after a global rout carved more than 90 per cent off the price of the mineral. Prices have climbed 50 per cent since they bottomed out in June, with the stronger-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles now driving speculation lithium production will fall short of soaring demand. But share prices for former market darlings IGO, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources still languish well below the heights of two years ago. While gold presenters now outweigh lithium at the conference, battery minerals producers will still make their presence felt. Now in its 34th year, the forum is just as important to the Kalgoorlie economy as it is for micro-cap explorers looking to get their first project up. More than 3000 people will flock to the town, swelling its population more than 10 per cent. At Wednesday's gala night more than 1300 attendees will be catered for and a plane-load of staff flown in to serve them, given the limited staff and facilities in Kalgoorlie. Marquees will be erected to house 154 exhibitors, while 65 presenters will hold court over three days. It's no challenge for forum director Suzanne Christie, who has been organising the tricky logistics of the event from day one, Mr Walker said. Goldminers have long hogged the limelight at the Diggers and Dealers mining forum. The annual conference in the remote mining town of Kalgoorlie, in the Western Australian Goldfields region, is the glittering highlight of the resources industry's events calendar. Up-and-coming miners prize their shot to flaunt their wares to investors, while the majors covet the chance to snag an award at the glitzy gala dinner. In recent years, goldminers have been supplanted at the top of the roster by the battery minerals crowd, buoyed by the burgeoning demand for ores like lithium and nickel essential to the manufacturing of electric vehicles. But a record run has sent the price of bullion soaring and investors flocking back to the precious metal. Amid an upswing in mergers and acquisitions activity among goldminers, the largest has been Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining. Northern Star's Super Pit dominates the Kalgoorlie landscape. The ASX giant's largest asset is a popular tourist destination, with thousands of visitors drawn to the pit's public lookout each year to watch colossal mining trucks wind their way up the serpentine access track or see scheduled blasts shake the sheer rock walls below. But the De Grey deal handed Northern Star a project that could dwarf the 130-year-old deposit, which has been plagued by productivity and cost headwinds in the past year. The newly-acquired Hemi deposit, in the iron-ore dominated Pilbara region, contains an estimated 11 million ounces of gold. That would fetch more than $55 billion at current prices. The project, which is still seeking regulatory approval, has a slightly lower grade than the Super Pit at 1.3 grams per tonne. But given the ravenous appetite for gold, even much lower grade deposits will attract interest at the Diggers conference. Forum chair Jim Walker says the mood in the industry is upbeat. "Gold's still going very, very well, lithium is coming back up again," he told AAP. "So it's going to be a very positive conference from that point of view." Lithium miners have been buoyed after a recovery in spodumene prices, after a global rout carved more than 90 per cent off the price of the mineral. Prices have climbed 50 per cent since they bottomed out in June, with the stronger-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles now driving speculation lithium production will fall short of soaring demand. But share prices for former market darlings IGO, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources still languish well below the heights of two years ago. While gold presenters now outweigh lithium at the conference, battery minerals producers will still make their presence felt. Now in its 34th year, the forum is just as important to the Kalgoorlie economy as it is for micro-cap explorers looking to get their first project up. More than 3000 people will flock to the town, swelling its population more than 10 per cent. At Wednesday's gala night more than 1300 attendees will be catered for and a plane-load of staff flown in to serve them, given the limited staff and facilities in Kalgoorlie. Marquees will be erected to house 154 exhibitors, while 65 presenters will hold court over three days. It's no challenge for forum director Suzanne Christie, who has been organising the tricky logistics of the event from day one, Mr Walker said.
Perth Now
4 hours ago
- Perth Now
Bull market sends mining summit back to golden age
Goldminers have long hogged the limelight at the Diggers and Dealers mining forum. The annual conference in the remote mining town of Kalgoorlie, in the Western Australian Goldfields region, is the glittering highlight of the resources industry's events calendar. Up-and-coming miners prize their shot to flaunt their wares to investors, while the majors covet the chance to snag an award at the glitzy gala dinner. In recent years, goldminers have been supplanted at the top of the roster by the battery minerals crowd, buoyed by the burgeoning demand for ores like lithium and nickel essential to the manufacturing of electric vehicles. But a record run has sent the price of bullion soaring and investors flocking back to the precious metal. Amid an upswing in mergers and acquisitions activity among goldminers, the largest has been Northern Star's $5 billion takeover of De Grey Mining. Northern Star's Super Pit dominates the Kalgoorlie landscape. The ASX giant's largest asset is a popular tourist destination, with thousands of visitors drawn to the pit's public lookout each year to watch colossal mining trucks wind their way up the serpentine access track or see scheduled blasts shake the sheer rock walls below. But the De Grey deal handed Northern Star a project that could dwarf the 130-year-old deposit, which has been plagued by productivity and cost headwinds in the past year. The newly-acquired Hemi deposit, in the iron-ore dominated Pilbara region, contains an estimated 11 million ounces of gold. That would fetch more than $55 billion at current prices. The project, which is still seeking regulatory approval, has a slightly lower grade than the Super Pit at 1.3 grams per tonne. But given the ravenous appetite for gold, even much lower grade deposits will attract interest at the Diggers conference. Forum chair Jim Walker says the mood in the industry is upbeat. "Gold's still going very, very well, lithium is coming back up again," he told AAP. "So it's going to be a very positive conference from that point of view." Lithium miners have been buoyed after a recovery in spodumene prices, after a global rout carved more than 90 per cent off the price of the mineral. Prices have climbed 50 per cent since they bottomed out in June, with the stronger-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles now driving speculation lithium production will fall short of soaring demand. But share prices for former market darlings IGO, Pilbara Minerals and Liontown Resources still languish well below the heights of two years ago. While gold presenters now outweigh lithium at the conference, battery minerals producers will still make their presence felt. Now in its 34th year, the forum is just as important to the Kalgoorlie economy as it is for micro-cap explorers looking to get their first project up. More than 3000 people will flock to the town, swelling its population more than 10 per cent. At Wednesday's gala night more than 1300 attendees will be catered for and a plane-load of staff flown in to serve them, given the limited staff and facilities in Kalgoorlie. Marquees will be erected to house 154 exhibitors, while 65 presenters will hold court over three days. It's no challenge for forum director Suzanne Christie, who has been organising the tricky logistics of the event from day one, Mr Walker said.
News.com.au
12 hours ago
- News.com.au
Criterion: With rates cut looking a sure bet, small-cap stocks are biggest winners
Small caps generally fare well when interest rates fall, because they tend to be exposed to cyclical domestic sectors Rates are heading south to prevent the economy from overheating, rather than avoiding recession Yarra Capital Management names four preferred ASX small-cap plays This week's benign inflation figures have fired expectations that the Reserve Bank will announce an interest rate cut on Tuesday week. It would be amazing if the central bank did a BACO – Bullock Again Chickens Out – and maintained a neutral stance for the second month in a row. Along with mortgage holders, small cap investors will cheer on what's expected to be a series of cuts over the next 18 months. That's because of a strong correlation between lower rates and the health of small caps. 'Smaller companies tend to be exposed to the more cyclical elements of the economy, so benefit from reduced rates which stimulate demand,' says Yarra Capital Management's small caps portfolio co-manager Michael Steele. Wilson Asset Management's Oscar Oberg refers to the 'inherent leverage' of small caps, in that they typically carry more debt. 'This means that even the slightest economic tailwind can fall to the bottom line quickly and drive earnings upgrades.' Lower rates also mean a lower Australian dollar, as foreign investors seek better returns elsewhere. Rates are falling for the 'right' reason Steele says investors should consider why rates are reducing. The current round is more about inflation slowing – and the economy not overheating – rather than the nation falling into recession. That's why investors applauded the jobs numbers showing an uptick in unemployment (not that the affected workers will be cracking out the bubbly). In contrast the rate reductions during the global financial crisis and the pandemic were more about avoiding disaster. Steele adds the rates benefit not just discretionary retailer, but other exposures including construction and real estate income trusts (REITs). Driving higher returns Steele cites Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE), the nation's biggest car dealership, as one of the biggest interest rate beneficiaries. 'Over the last two years, industry profitability has dramatically reduced with selling new cars,' he says. 'But we are now at the bottom of the cycle, with reduced industry inventory volumes.' Lower rates tend to have an instant knock-on effect on new car sales. That's a plus for Eagers, given its franchises include the fast-growing Chinese brand BYD. But about half of Eagers' gross profit comes from servicing, which creates durable annuity income. Steele adds that freehold property accounts for about one-quarter of Eagers' enterprise value. The REIT way to invest in property About half of the property fund manager Centuria Capital's (ASX:CNI) share price is underpinned by it stake in related entities including Centuria Office and Centuria Industrial. Centuria also co-invests in other unlisted property assets. 'About 75% of assets under management are in closed-end vehicles or listed entities where it has effective control,' Steele says. 'That means there's a low level of outflow risks.' Lower rates benefit the overall REIT sector, which is seeing improving asset valuations after years of decline. But Steele says funds management REITs reap extra benefit. "When cycle turns up, they will get upside from fund management fees and property development," he says. 'Those earnings streams are at zero currently.' Construction group's rare appeal Steele describes construction materials play MAAS Group Holdings (ASX:MGH) (pronounced Mars) as a 'really interesting business'. MAAS operates regional quarrying operations (such as asphalt and aggregates) and has civil construction/plant hire and residential property development arms. The company's land bank of 8000 residential plots supports its $1.5 billion market cap. These are in high-growth lots locales such as Dubbo, Orange, Bathurst and Rockhampton. 'MAAS has a diversified business across three markets and all of them are attractive at the moment,' Steele says. MAAS also is an ASX rarity, given buyers swooped on building material plays CSR, Adbri and Boral. Judo moves deftly in SME market Pure-play small business lender Judo Capital Holdings (ASX:JDO) has blipped on investor radars, given the Big Four banks' elevated valuations. By not aligning itself to the hotly competed home loan market, Judo generates superior net interest margins. Of course Judo doesn't have the inherent security of a mortgage, so its risk managers need to be on top of their game. To date, Judo's delinquencies have been low – and risks should only moderate as rates come down. Steele says investors price Judo at book value. "This is a very attractive valuation compared to the big banks which are trading at significant premiums.'
