By the numbers: How the Guardians have surged back into the AL playoff chase

New York Times

3 days ago

CLEVELAND — Every American League team has at least 50 losses. The Guardians have 56 of them. Yeah, they're that close to the best record in the AL. It's been a wild summer. The race is wide open and, somehow, they're firmly involved.
How'd it happen? Well, if you were among those who shifted your attention to the Shedeur Sanders experience once the Guardians plummeted to 40-48 five weeks ago, here's a summary of what you've missed:
Yes, the same offense that was blanked five times during a 10-game skid is now scoring runs in bunches. The two teams the Guardians trail in that span — the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers — have been on a summer-long tear.
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Consider the slash lines of each of the three teams over the last five weeks:
Toronto: .304/.369/.502
Milwaukee: .286/.354/.449
Cleveland: .244/.322/.423
One of those might look like it doesn't belong, sure, but it illustrates that the Guardians have delivered timely hitting, something they were allergic to for the first few months. They rank fifth in walk rate and eighth in strikeout rate over that stretch, two healthy traits for any offense. They're tied for 10th in home runs and tied for sixth in stolen bases. This has been a well-rounded attack of late.
Kyle Manzardo has pushed his OPS to .808 (and it stands at .994 over his last 30 games). He's up to 20 home runs, and assuming he belts at least five more before the end of the year, he'll join Asdrúbal Cabrera, Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana and Grady Sizemore as the only Cleveland hitters aged 25 or younger with a 25-homer season since the turn of the century.
Manzardo's surge has supplied cover for Cleveland's All-Stars. Ramírez went 2-for-25 on the club's road trip, yet the Guardians went 5-1. Steven Kwan has also suffered through a prolonged funk.
Finally, however, the Guardians' lineup has some depth. Brayan Rocchio has re-emerged from Triple-A Columbus as a more confident hitter. Daniel Schneemann has settled into the No. 2 spot in the lineup against righties. David Fry and Angel Martínez have feasted on lefties. It's far from a perfect group, but it's performing light years better than it was in the first three months.
This seems like a good opportunity to tip the hat to some unheralded members of the pitching staff.
Logan Allen: a 3.76 ERA and at least five innings pitched in all 11 starts since a brief bullpen stint in late May
Jakob Junis: a 1.31 ERA over his last 19 appearances
Matt Festa: two earned runs on four hits over 11 1/3 innings in the last month
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How about the fact that 'where would this team be without Kolby Allard?' is an actual, logical question? The journeyman soft-tosser has posted a 2.63 ERA across 48 innings in a role best described as mop-up/spot start/occasional high-leverage/'You need me? OK, no problem, let me just finish this granola bar and jog out there.'
It helps that Cleveland's starters are pitching deeper into games. Before Sunday (and a potentially stat-skewing, three-inning effort from Slade Cecconi), the Guardians ranked second in the majors in innings per start over the last five weeks, behind only the Philadelphia Phillies. That makes life easier on the bullpen. Speaking of …
Nic Enright has allowed an earned run in only two of 20 appearances. Erik Sabrowski has allowed two earned runs in 15 outings.
For a bullpen desperate for late-inning help to replace Tim Herrin (command trouble) and Emmanuel Clase (career trouble), Enright and Sabrowski have delivered an essential piece to this turnaround puzzle.
Sabrowski got a taste of high leverage last season when he joined the team late in the summer. He was perfectly capable then, though he admitted he wasn't sure he even belonged, and he's certainly pitching with confidence now. He owns a 0.64 ERA in 28 1/3 big-league innings. As for Enright, it's not the flashiest stuff (93.3 mph average fastball), but his slider induces a ton of whiffs and he attacks the strike zone.
Their background stories reveal a pair of relievers determined not to waste the opportunity. Enright will undergo another cancer treatment after the season; he scheduled it for November to ensure there's time for a deep postseason run. Sabrowski missed nearly four years of pitching because of a pair of elbow surgeries sandwiched around the pandemic. The Guardians scooped him up in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft and now he's Stephen Vogt's go-to lefty.
Williams last week nearly tossed Cleveland's first no-hitter in 44 years, a cruelly ironic drought for an organization that has boasted a vaunted pitching factory. In fact, Len Barker, the author of that perfect script on May 15, 1981, was watching Williams' bid for history from Progressive Field, where Barker was working an event as an alumni ambassador.
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The wait for another no-hit masterpiece continues. The wait for another Cleveland ace? That might not take as long. Williams, a first-round pick and consensus top 50 prospect who always oozed frontline starter potential, has looked the part lately.
In those six starts, Williams has limited the opposition to seven runs on 19 hits in 38 2/3 innings. Let's rewind even further, though. Over the last three months, Williams has logged a 2.52 ERA in 16 starts, and the opposition has mustered a .180 average against him. After months of tweaks to his pitch arsenal and his delivery, he has finally settled on a setup that seems to work. With an upper-90s fastball, a looping curveball and darting sweeper, and now a cutter and sinker to confuse hitters, Williams can pile up strikeouts without issue. But he's not going out of his way to chase strikeouts, and it's led to more efficient pitch counts and higher innings totals.
Williams' five starts in May: 24 2/3 innings, 500 pitches
Williams' five starts before the near-no-hitter: 30 innings, 470 pitches
On the morning of July 9, even after winning a couple of games in Houston, the Guardians sat 15.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. About a month later, that Pacific Ocean-sized gap has shrunk to the size of a narrow creek.
The Guardians hit rock bottom at 40-48 after the Tigers swept them at Progressive Field on July 4 weekend. The Tigers were 57-34. Since then, they're 11-17. The Guardians are 21-8. Poof, a comfortable, stretch-your-legs-for-three-months division lead is no more.
That's all happened in five weeks, and that includes the four motionless days of the All-Star break. Yes, the Guardians have capitalized on a more forgiving schedule, but their two toughest assignments during that stretch — road visits to the Houston Astros and New York Mets — resulted in Cleveland sweeps.
Following series against the Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Guardians' schedule increases in difficulty, essentially until they reach the finish line. They have six more meetings with the Tigers, all slated for the final 12 days of the season. If they snag a playoff spot, they'll have earned it.
(Photo of Kyle Manzardo: Patrick Gorski / Imagn Images)
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