Why Macrotech is upbeat about its prospects even as India's realty market braces for a slowdown
Macrotech Developers
Ltd (Lodha) expects its pre-sales or bookings to surge to Rs21,000 crore this financial year from Rs17,600 crore in 2024-25, driven by its key Mumbai Metropolitan Region market as well as its new geographies of Bengaluru and Pune.
Lodha's management expects at least five projects to be operational in Bengaluru in FY26. While the company's business development pipeline in Bengaluru signals a significant scale-up over the next 2-3 years, the city already accounts for 2-3% of Macrotech's total pre-sales. This is expected to reach 15% over the next decade.
In Pune, Lodha has added two new projects, taking its total count in the city to nine. It expects Pune to contribute a substantial portion of FY26 pre-sales.
Overall, Lodha has guided launches of 13.1 million square feet (msf) for FY26, with a gross development value (GDV) of Rs18,800 crore across 17 projects in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Bengaluru and Pune. This compares with 10 project launches of 9.8 msf with a GDV of Rs13,700 crore in FY25 (excluding digital infra projects).
Lodha also plans to enter a new city in FY26. With these expansions, it is projecting a sustainable compound annual growth rate of 20% in pre-sales by FY31.
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Lodha sees its operating cash flow at
₹
7,700 crore in FY26, up 17% year-on-year. Despite the spate of new launches, its debt-to-equity ratio is expected to be below 0.5.
Lodha's adoption of asset-light business development through joint development mode along with ready inventory liquidation could boost cash flows and keep debt under control.
To be sure, Lodha's upbeat guidance across key earnings parameters is encouraging, but the stock has already bounced back sharply. From its 52-week low of Rs1,035.15 on 17 March, it is up 25%.
While falling housing (sales) volumes is a concern, Lodha's segmental or geographical diversification should hold it in good stead, spurring sales growth, Nuvama Research said in a report on 25 April.
Similarly, channel checks by Antique Stock Broking show that residential real estate euphoria has cooled in key markets.
'Walk-ins and conversions have slowed over the last two months due to financial market volatility, a gloomy IT sector outlook, and economic growth concerns prompting buyers to delay decisions in search of greater certainty or better deals," Antique said in its report on 24 April. Plus, the demand in the premium and luxury segments have notably subdued, it added.
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