logo
BoE watchdog tells banks and insurers to fix climate risk ‘gaps'

BoE watchdog tells banks and insurers to fix climate risk ‘gaps'

Business Mayor30-04-2025
Stay informed with free updates
Simply sign up to the Climate change myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.
Banks and insurers have 'gaps' in how they address climate change risks, such as flooding and extreme weather, the Bank of England has warned, but fixing them will hamper lending to some households and companies.
The BoE's Prudential Regulation Authority has instructed banks and insurers to do internal reviews on climate risk and said it would check how the guidelines were being put into effect six months later.
Some UK banks do not have climate-related data on where their borrowers have property, leaving them unable to assess their vulnerability to floods, heatwaves or wild fires, the PRA said.
No British lenders were able to fully quantify how climate change would affect their activities in different scenarios, it said, adding that most did not consider the issue a material danger except for the 'reputational risk' of being associated with funding fossil fuels.
The financial institutions could be exposed to losses that 'undermine their safety and soundness', the PRA said on Wednesday, unless they addressed the shortfalls in climate risk preparation.
The watchdog published updated guidance on what it expects in the assessment of both physical risks, such as floods, as well as so-called transition risks stemming from the shift away from carbon emissions.
The central bank guidance indicates it maintains a focus on climate-related risk, despite the backtracking on climate change policy by many companies and some leading western governments over the past year. Read More Legal & General to expand pensions and sell housebuilder Cala
The EU has watered down its sustainability reporting requirements, while US President Donald Trump has reversed many of the climate and clean energy policies of his predecessor Joe Biden. The US Federal Reserve recently withdrew from the central banks in the Network for Greening the Financial System.
The PRA's move comes as an independent UK government adviser separately warned on Wednesday that the country's progress on adapting to climate change was 'either too slow, has stalled, or is heading in the wrong direction'.
David Bailey, executive director for prudential policy at the PRA, said 'considerable progress has been made' in tackling climate risks at banks and insurers, but added: 'There is still more to do, and it remains critical that firms continue to focus on these risks.'
Tackling these gaps would cause people who live in areas prone to flood risk to face higher mortgage rates and insurance costs. 'In the extreme', it said, that could 'lead to loss of mortgage availability in some localities of the UK'.
It said this could also push up funding costs for companies with high carbon emissions, adding: 'This could in turn deter economic activities in those sectors.'
Insurers had generally treated climate change more like a box-ticking exercise than a strategic risk, the PRA said, adding it had found 'limited evidence that results are being used in decision-making'.
Recommended
Insurers had also excluded 'tail risks' from their scenario analysis, the PRA said, and had focused on physical and legal risk but had 'very rarely' considered risks stemming from the impact of the economy's transition to net zero carbon emissions.
However, British insurers are pushing the government to do more to reduce flood risk after large payouts on weather-related damage to people's homes and possessions last year.
'We continue to urge the government to commit to an annual investment of at least £1bn a year in flood defences as part of its upcoming spending review,' said Louise Clark, manager of general insurance policy at the Association of British Insurers.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Government data is now in question. Here's where macro investors are turning to fill the gaps.
Government data is now in question. Here's where macro investors are turning to fill the gaps.

Yahoo

time11 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Government data is now in question. Here's where macro investors are turning to fill the gaps.

The firing of the BLS head by President Donald Trump has spooked some macro investors. Trump's nomination of a partisan economist may push investors to rely more heavily on other data. Sources like ADP, Homebase, and MIT's Billion Prices Project have become critical, traders say. No savvy investor makes a decision off a single data point, but there are some numbers that carry more weight than others. For many macro investors, the North Star has long been the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unit within the Department of Labor that measures, among other things, inflation, unemployment rates, and wage growth. Those in charge of the BLS have long been non-partisan economists, but President Donald Trump's firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on August 1 and his top pick for her replacement, chief economist at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni, have many concerned with the validity of future government data, especially as Antoni floated pausing monthly jobs reports. Love Business Insider? Log in to Google and make us a preferred source. It's concerning for macro traders who rely on this data to make their bets, but there are non-governmental data sources that many already use. While helpful, these alternative databases can't replicate the widespread foundation BLS numbers provided for decades, where all market participants worked for the same set of basic facts about the state of the world's biggest economy. Still, traders are ramping up their use of this data in light of Trump's moves. "What's going to be tricky here is how to judge numbers coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics moving forward," said Andreas Steno Larsen, onetime macro investor and researcher, on his weekly podcast. He compared the firing to something that would happen "in Latin America" and predicted that investors would "look for alternative sources" to get a second opinion on the official data. Four macro investors pointed to the well-known ADP jobs report, which comes out monthly and tracks payroll from private employers, and MIT's Billion Prices Project as ways to track employment and inflation, respectively, in the US. The investors declined to be named because their firms don't authorize them to speak publicly. Some investors tap datasets that constantly scrape e-commerce prices, such as PriceStats, and track how different products rise and fall over time. This is a useful tool to understand Trump's tariff policies' impact, given the volume of online goods that US consumers buy from overseas. Payroll and scheduling company Homebase tracks more than 150,000 small businesses and produces monthly employment reports. LinkUp has tracked online job postings since 2007. Numerator has become a key source for in-person consumer data at places such as restaurants and home improvement stores. "Given the recent BLS conversations, we've recently seen demand for our data increase," Homebase CEO John Waldmann said in a statement. Not a replacement These alternative data sources are just that — alternative. They were used to get a sneak peek or a deeper look at inflation or unemployment figures that the government would release, not replace them entirely. They also sometimes vary. For example, ADP's payroll figures often diverge from the BLS's monthly jobs report, and MIT's Billion Prices Project can capture inflation trends sooner than the official CPI but is less comprehensive. "We don't see them replacing economic statistics altogether in the near future," said Julie Meigh, the head of ESG & macro research at alt-data platform Neudata, about non-traditional datasets. Even if BLS data becomes less trustworthy, the different macro investors who spoke with Business Insider said they'll still need to use it in some fashion unless there's a structural change in financial products. For example, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, change when the Consumer Price Index from the government is announced. For those who have exposure to these types of assets, ignoring the BLS is not possible even if the data becomes untrustworthy. As one trader at one of the world's biggest macro hedge funds said, he was surprised markets weren't more spooked by Trump's firing. Equity markets were near record highs, and bond yields stayed mostly steady. "I think it's clear that institutions are not as strong as many had thought," this individual said. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Goldman Sachs says the risk of stock-market decline has suddenly spiked
Goldman Sachs says the risk of stock-market decline has suddenly spiked

Business Insider

time14 minutes ago

  • Business Insider

Goldman Sachs says the risk of stock-market decline has suddenly spiked

The stock market's hot streak might soon come to an abrupt end, Goldman Sachs said. In a note to clients, the bank said that its equity asymmetry framework — one of its gauges that assesses stocks based on the market environment and the latest economic data — was sending a signal that the risk for a coming stock market drop had increased. According to its model, the S&P 500 now faces a higher than 10% chance of a drawdown within the next three months, and more than a 20% chance of a drawdown in the next 12 months, analysts said. The spike in drawdown risks looks similar to the spike seen during the S&P 500's run-up at the start of the year, the bank said. Goldman's equity asymmetry framework flagged an elevated risk of a drawdown before President Donald Trump announced his slate of tariffs on April 2, which sparked a historic sell-off. "The equity drawdown probability is elevated and has increased recently. Usually levels above 30% give a signal for downside risk to equities, and current levels are nearing those," analysts said. The bank said there were two reasons its model was flashing an elevated risk of a decline: Volatility in the market is low. The VIX has dropped 71% from its peak on Liberation Day. The economy is slowing. In order for stocks to do well in a low-volatility environment, the momentum of the economy needs to remain strong. But that looks unlikely, given looming risks stemming from tariffs, the bank said. Analysts pointed to "worsening business cycle momentum" and recent weakness in the job market, with the US adding fewer jobs than expected in recent months. The bank also thinks inflation is likely to pick up in the second half of the year as Trump's tariffs continue to work their way through the economy. David Mericle, the chief US economist at the bank, told CNBC on Wednesday that he expected inflation to drift over 3% as the effects of tariffs begin to materialize. "This is likely to trigger more Fed easing but it could come with more equity volatility in the event of growth concerns, especially if Fed easing disappoints already dovish expectations," analysts said. Wall Street forecasters have been on high alert for signals of a coming correction as major indexes hover near all-time highs. The S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date and 29% since its post-Liberation Day low.

Businesses are charging each other higher prices, a warning sign for consumers
Businesses are charging each other higher prices, a warning sign for consumers

NBC News

time14 minutes ago

  • NBC News

Businesses are charging each other higher prices, a warning sign for consumers

Fresh inflation data suggests businesses have begun to raise the prices they charge each other for goods and services, a sign they are looking to preserve their profit margins in the face of President Donald Trump's tariffs — with consumers potentially footing the bill. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday that wholesale inflation surged in July, with the increases led by a category called trade services. Those reflect how much more wholesalers charge above initial costs to maintain or even increase their earnings rate. The category increased 6.9% on the year in July, the largest gain since March 2022, when pandemic-era inflation began to soar. 'Businesses were hesitant to raise prices charged to consumers last month, but the prices they charge each other are rising faster, with big increases touching many categories of goods and services,' Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. Thursday's report stands in contrast to the consumer inflation report published earlier this week that showed a somewhat more subdued price growth picture. Analysts say the latest report on the costs that businesses are facing suggests consumers won't be left unscathed for long — and throws some doubt on how and whether the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates for the rest of the year. Stocks were lower in trading Thursday as investors dialed back expectations for Fed rate cuts. When inflation is hot, the Fed tends to keep interest rates elevated to curb overall economic activity. 'The large spike in the Producer Price Index (PPI) this morning shows inflation is coursing through the economy, even if it hasn't been felt by consumers yet,' Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said in a note. He called the high PPI number an 'unwelcome surprise' that is 'likely to unwind some of the optimism of a 'guaranteed' rate cut next month.' A report this week suggested that while consumers are so far only paying approximately 22% of the cost of Trump's tariffs, the figure is likely to rise to as much as 67% by the end of the year. Trump has disputed that forecast but, on Wednesday, a Goldman economist defended its estimates. 'If the most recent tariffs, like the April tariff, follow the same pattern that we've seen with those earliest February tariffs, then eventually, by the fall, we estimate that consumers would bear about two-thirds of the cost,' David Mericle said Wednesday on CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street.' Some analysts were more sanguine about the report. Samuel Tombs, head of U.S. economics at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the jump in the trade services category is likely to be revised lower in subsequent reports, while other aspects of the latest data are too volatile from which to draw conclusions. 'The tariffs are continuing to create cost pressures…but July's PPI data overstate the intensity,' he wrote on X. On Friday, the BLS will publish import price data for July, which will provide further insight into how tariffs costs are being absorbed. 'The administration believes that foreign manufacturers will 'pay' much of the tariff by accepting lower prices in order to maintain market share,' James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said in a note. 'Tomorrow will be an interesting test.' The Labor Department also reported Thursday that unemployment claims remain elevated, though they declined compared to the previous week. Economists are now zeroing in on September's jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose data has come under fire by Trump. His nominee, E.J. Antoni, whom he selected to head the agency after he fired its previous commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, must still be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Ultimately, Thursday's inflation report 'is a pebble on the scale against a rate cut at the Fed's next decision in September,' Comerica's Adams wrote. 'Even so, the upcoming jobs data will weigh more heavily in the Fed's decision making than this inflation report.'

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store