
Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Soars 18% YTD: Time to Hold or Book Profit?
Taiwan Semiconductor stock has also moved ahead of several chip peers, including ASML Holding ASML, ON Semiconductor ON and Marvell Technology MRVL. Shares of ASML Holding, ON Semiconductor and Marvell Technology have fallen 0.5%, 25.1% and 30.6%, respectively, YTD.
YTD Price Return Performance
This outperformance shows investors remain confident in Taiwan Semiconductor's long-term story, even during a volatile market shaped by trade conflicts and geopolitical risks. We believe this momentum is grounded in strong fundamentals, and TSM's long-term outlook justifies a hold position for now.
AI Boom: A Multi-Year Growth Catalyst for TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor continues to dominate the semiconductor foundry space. TSMC is known for its advanced production capabilities and has already moved into 3nm production, with 2nm coming soon. Its large scale allows it to handle rising AI chip demand better than most competitors. The ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom has placed TSMC at the center of a multi-year structural growth cycle.
Taiwan Semiconductor has established itself as the preferred manufacturing partner for AI accelerators, including graphics processing units (GPUs) and custom silicon developed by major players like NVIDIA, Marvell Technology and Broadcom.
In 2024, AI-related revenues tripled, making up a mid-teen percentage of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's total revenues, and the momentum is far from over. TSMC expects AI-related sales to double again in 2025, with an impressive 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years. This positions TSM as the undisputed backbone of AI-driven technological advancements.
To capitalize on the AI-driven growing demand for advanced chips, Taiwan Semiconductor is investing heavily in expanding production capabilities. The company is set to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, far outpacing its $29.8 billion investment in 2024. The bulk of this spending, around 70%, is focused on advanced manufacturing processes, ensuring TSM stays ahead of other chip manufacturing rivals.
TSMC's Resilient Financial Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor's latest earnings report highlights just how dominant the company remains. In the second quarter of 2025, TSM's revenues surged 44% year over year to $30.07 billion, while EPS jumped 61% to $2.47. This growth was powered by the booming demand for its advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes, which now account for 58% of total wafer sales. Gross margins improved 540 basis points to 58.6%, reflecting better cost efficiencies.
Buoyed by strong demand for its 3nm and 5nm chips, Taiwan Semiconductor raised its revenue growth guidance for full-year 2025 to 30% from mid-20% projected earlier. For the third quarter, TSMC expects revenues in the range of $31.8-$33 billion, calling for a sequential increase of 6%-10%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter and full fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $32.38 billion and $118.11 billion, respectively.
Favorable Valuation: A Reason to Hold TSM Stock
Despite a robust rally, Taiwan Semiconductor stock still looks reasonably priced. It trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.27, which is lower than the sector average of 27.47. This discount adds to the appeal for long-term investors.
Compared with other major semiconductor players, Taiwan Semiconductor has a higher P/E ratio than ON Semiconductor but has a lower multiple than ASML Holding and Marvell Technology. At present, ASML Holding, ON Semiconductor and Marvell Technology trade at P/E multiples of 24.33, 16.92 and 24.01, respectively.
Near-Term Challenges Persist for TSMC
Despite its strengths, Taiwan Semiconductor faces near-term headwinds. Higher energy prices in Taiwan, following a 25% electricity hike in 2024, pose a considerable challenge, especially as advanced nodes demand greater power.
Softness in key markets like PCs and smartphones also dampens near-term prospects. These traditionally strong revenue drivers are projected to see only low single-digit growth in 2025, limiting Taiwan Semiconductor's growth despite rising AI demand.
The company's global expansion strategy adds further strain. New fabs in the United States (Arizona), Japan and Germany are vital for geopolitical risk mitigation, but they come with higher costs. These facilities are expected to drag down gross margins by 2-3 percentage points annually over the next three to five years due to higher labor and energy costs, along with lower utilization rates in the early stages.
Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China relations, pose strategic risks. With significant revenue exposure to China, Taiwan Semiconductor is vulnerable to export restrictions, supply-chain disruptions or further regulatory pressure. These uncertainties could weigh on near-term performance.
Conclusion: Hold TSM Stock for Now
Taiwan Semiconductor remains a cornerstone of the semiconductor industry. Its unmatched capabilities in advanced chip manufacturing, strong exposure to AI demand and expanding capacity give it a solid long-term trajectory.
However, short-term headwinds, from rising costs and global expansion pressures to geopolitical friction, call for a more cautious stance. Given its valuation and growth backdrop, holding the stock makes the most sense right now.
Taiwan Semiconductor carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): Free Stock Analysis Report
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ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON): Free Stock Analysis Report
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CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (in thousands, except share and per share data) June 30, 2025 December 31, 2024 * (unaudited) Assets Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 1,678 $ 2,546 Restricted cash 1,861 1,861 Accounts receivable, net 14,050 15,033 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 1,222 859 Total current assets 18,811 20,299 Property and equipment, net 90 69 Intangible assets, net 12,436 13,406 Goodwill 7,785 7,785 Operating lease right-of-use assets 215 253 Other long-term assets 159 158 Total assets $ 39,496 $ 41,970 Liabilities and Stockholders' Deficit Current liabilities: Accounts payable and accrued expenses $ 22,311 $ 22,667 Other current liabilities 2,522 4,401 Interest payable - Centre Lane senior secured credit facility - related party - 21 Deferred revenue 6,594 2,883 Note payable - Centre Lane senior secured credit facility - related party (current) 4,673 3,808 Total current liabilities 36,100 33,780 Other long-term liabilities 91 169 Note payable - Centre Lane senior secured credit facility - related party (long-term) 73,781 71,043 Finance lease liabilities 7 20 Operating lease liabilities 140 185 Total liabilities 110,119 105,197 Stockholders' deficit: Convertible preferred stock, par value $0.01, 20,000,000 shares authorized, no shares issued or outstanding at June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively - - Common stock, par value $0.01, 324,000,000 shares authorized, 177,515,227 and 177,464,827 issued, and 175,965,052 and 176,114,652 outstanding at June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively 1,776 1,775 Treasury stock at cost, 1,550,175 and 1,350,175 shares at June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively (220) (220) Additional paid-in capital 101,870 101,798 Accumulated deficit (174,169) (166,857) Accumulated other comprehensive income 120 277 Total stockholders' deficit $ (70,623) $ (63,227) Total liabilities and stockholders' deficit $ 39,496 $ 41,970 * Derived from audited consolidated financial statement Non-GAAP Financial Measure Non-GAAP results are presented only as a supplement to the financial statements and for use within management's discussion and analysis based on U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). The non-GAAP financial information is provided to enhance the reader's understanding of the Company's financial performance, but non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. All of the items included in the reconciliation from net loss before taxes to EBITDA and from EBITDA to Adjusted EBITDA are either (i) non-cash items (e.g., depreciation, amortization of purchased intangibles, stock-based compensation, etc.) or (ii) items that management does not consider to be useful in assessing the Company's ongoing operating performance (e.g., M&A costs, income taxes, gain on sale of investments, loss on disposal of assets, etc.). In the case of the non-cash items, management believes that investors can better assess the Company's operating performance if the measures are presented without such items because, unlike cash expenses, these adjustments do not affect the Company's ability to generate free cash flow or invest in its business. We use, and we believe investors benefit from the presentation of, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA in evaluating our operating performance because it provides us and our investors with an additional tool to compare our operating performance on a consistent basis by removing the impact of certain items that management believes do not directly reflect our core operations. We believe that EBITDA is useful to investors and other external users of our financial statements in evaluating our operating performance because EBITDA is widely used by investors to measure a company's operating performance without regard to items such as interest expense, taxes, and depreciation and amortization, which can vary substantially from company to company depending upon accounting methods and book value of assets, capital structure and the method by which assets were acquired. Because not all companies use identical calculations, the Company's presentation of non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. However, these measures can still be useful in evaluating the Company's performance against its peer companies because management believes the measures provide users with valuable insight into key components of GAAP financial disclosures. A reconciliation of net loss before taxes to non-GAAP EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA is as follows: Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 2024 2025 2024 (in thousands) Net loss before tax $ (4,081) $ (5,208) $ (7,312) $ (9,974) Depreciation expense 15 35 28 75 Amortization of intangibles 485 481 970 962 Amortization of debt discount 556 936 1,189 1,552 Other interest expense 6 11 12 21 Interest expense - Centre Lane Senior Secured Credit Facility and Convertible Promissory Notes 2,579 2,426 4,966 4,804 EBITDA (440) (1,319) (147) (2,560) Stock compensation expense 34 70 71 135 Non-recurring professional fees 20 - 261 - Non-recurring legal fees 111 254 357 309 Non-recurring severance expense 57 75 57 93 Adjusted EBITDA (loss) $ (218) $ (920) $ 599 $ (2,023)