Ukraine Braces for Impact of U.S. Weapons Pause

Newsweek

02-07-2025

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With U.S. weapons and missile flows stanched at Ukraine's borders, Kyiv is bracing for how it will keep its air defenses firing in the face of intense Russian bombardment and its guns leveled at slowly advancing Russian forces.
"I hope it's a temporary halt related to the need to make some calculations with regard to American stockpiles," said Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of Ukraine's parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee.
"I also hope that those people who have taken this decision fully realize what consequences it might have for Ukraine, including safety of civilian population, if we don't get on time the necessary munitions," Merezhko told Newsweek.
On Tuesday, the U.S. confirmed it had paused the delivery of some of Ukraine's most in-demand equipment and supplies. Politico first reported that a review of U.S. munitions stockpiles had raised concerns over a dip in the Department of Defense's stockpiles, and that an initial decision to hold back some military aid pledged during the previous administration was made almost a month ago.
The stoppage applies to aid Ukraine receives both through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) and through donations pulled from U.S. military stocks, according to the report. Under USAI, Washington has been able to buy equipment for Ukraine from American industry players.
The U.S. has provided about $67 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, the State Department said in a March news release. U.S. forces—and, crucially, the country's stockpiles—have also been heavily involved in the Middle East, including by intercepting missiles heading for Israel.
Ukrainian air defense intercepting a Shahed drone midair in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 30, 2023.
Ukrainian air defense intercepting a Shahed drone midair in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 30, 2023.
AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka
"This decision was made to put America's interests first following a review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries across the globe," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said. "The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned—just ask Iran."
Last month, the U.S. carried out large-scale strikes on several Iranian nuclear sites.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on Wednesday it had not "received any official notifications about the suspension or revision of the delivery schedules of the agreed defense assistance."
The delayed weapons include rounds for 155 mm howitzers, more than 100 Hellfire missiles and precision-guided rounds known as GMLRS, NBC News reported.
The U.S. has also paused its deliveries of short-range Stinger missiles widely used by Ukraine and dozens of Patriot air defense missiles, vital for protecting major Ukrainian cities from Russia's most advanced weapons. Getting more of the U.S.-made Patriot systems, credited with knocking out Russia's hypersonic missiles, has consistently been one of Ukraine's top priorities.
Russia has hammered Ukraine with intensive waves of aerial strikes in recent weeks as ceasefire talks have failed to yield any progress toward an agreement. Ukraine's air force said on Tuesday that Kyiv shot down 4,750 air targets in June alone, including almost 100 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 14 short-range ballistic missiles.
Air defense is the primary concern among Ukrainian officials, although Moscow has continued plugging away with small but steady advances along the front lines in the east. Kyiv's Defense Ministry said on Wednesday it had requested more information from the U.S., and that it was "critically important" to strengthen its air defense network.
"Even a partial suspension of U.S. military aid could be critical for Ukraine," said Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker for the country's southern Odesa region.
"Russia continues to bombard our cities almost every night, drones are shot down over Ukraine, and roughly once a week, Russia carries out massive missile attacks," he told Newsweek. "In other words, we are being denied the means to defend ourselves."
"I sincerely hope the United States will consider providing air defense support, as we urgently need it, especially to protect our civilians," Goncharenko added.
"Russia will definitely use any delay in providing American military aid to Ukraine and might intensify bombardments of civilian objects," Merezhko said.
Patriot missiles are the "most vulnerable point" in the aid blockage, Ivan Stupak, a former official with Ukraine's SBU security service, told Newsweek.
When asked about Patriot missiles during the NATO summit in The Hague last week, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was "going to see if we can make some available."
"They're very hard to get," he added. "We need them, too. We were supplying them to Israel."
Stockpiles Running Out?
The outbreak of fresh violence in the Middle East has used up interceptor missiles of many types, but mainly those fired by the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, which intercept ballistic missiles, and missiles fired from ships, said Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow with the British think tank the Royal United Services Institute.
While Patriot missiles have occasionally been used in the Middle East, a "considerable number" were sent to Ukraine, Kaushal told Newsweek. But the U.S. has replenished some of its stocks through buying back missiles, diverting shipments from export customers and benefiting from increased production rates for Patriot missiles, he continued.
"Inventory stockpiles are not critically low," Kaushal said. But the demand for Patriots is "growing significantly," not least in the Indo-Pacific, he added.
The exact number of munitions in the U.S. arsenal is not public knowledge.
Former Pentagon official Jim Townsend told Newsweek that the Department of Defense has always been concerned about Patriot missile stocks, particularly for use in the Indo-Pacific and against Houthi rebels launching missiles from Yemen. "We've always been thin on Patriot," he said.
"This is not about stockpiles," said retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges, who formerly headed U.S. Army Europe. "It's a choice of this administration to placate Russia, at the expense of Ukraine," Hodges told Newsweek.
Trump and his senior officials have appeared unwilling to exert painful pressure on Russia during ceasefire negotiations, despite Trump's clear desire to reach an accord and bring Europe's largest land conflict since World War II to an end.
Trump said last week that it was "more difficult than people would have any idea" to secure a deal, adding, "Vladimir Putin has been more difficult." Trump has typically veered away from heaping criticism on the Kremlin leader but has swiped at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
While Russian missiles and drones rain down across Ukraine, the Russian army is "still grinding forward" in the east, John Foreman, a former U.K. defense attaché to Moscow and Kyiv, told Newsweek.
A Russian-appointed official said earlier this week that Russian forces had seized all of the Luhansk region, one of two eastern Ukrainian regions forming the Donbas area, Ukraine's industrial heartland. The claim has not been corroborated by other sources, including Russia's community of influential military bloggers.
Russia says it annexed Luhansk and three other regions in the east in 2022, but the move is not internationally recognized.
Moscow has not established full control over any of the regions it has claimed as annexed. Russia has for many months controlled about 99 percent of Luhansk, according to analysis published by the Institute for the Study of War think tank, but it has struggled to capture the remaining land.
Russia has also contended with shortages of munitions, despite warping its economy by putting it on a teetering war footing. Its advance is costing Moscow dearly, said Daniel Rice, a former aide to Ukraine's commander in chief and the president of American University Kyiv.
"Firing tens of thousands of artillery shells daily depletes even a massive magazine," he told Newsweek. "Russia had to solve this by partnering with North Korea."
Russia has received extensive deliveries of shells and short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang. Last year, North Korea became the first country not directly involved in Russia's invasion of Ukraine to commit troops to the front line.