Tomatoes May See a Big Price Increase Soon—Here's Why

Yahoo

4 days ago

A change is coming on July 14, and it's likely going to affect the price of your BLT's. On that date, the U.S. is expected to pull out of the Tomato Suspension Agreement that was most recently negotiated in 2019 with Mexico.
More specifically, the agreement, which dates back to 1996, is between the Department of Commerce and producers and exporters of fresh tomatoes that are grown in Mexico, as explained by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This deal essentially ensured that producers and exporters will sell tomatoes at or above an "established reference price." The agreement initially stemmed from a long-time antidumping dispute.Once the agreement is terminated, the International Trade Administration expects a 20.91% tariff on "most imports of tomatoes from Mexico." The dissipation of this agreement is intended to allow "U.S. tomato growers to compete fairly in the marketplace." The Trump Administration has enforced strict U.S. trade laws since the beginning of his term, surging predicted price increases for a number of staple foods (such as bananas, shellfish, olive oil, chocolate, and nuts).
Typically, the lowest cost of tomatoes is handed to the summer months, due to increased production deriving from peak harvest times. During the winter, when production decreases, is when grocery stores usually fall victim to a higher price. However, with Mexico being the largest supplier of tomatoes to the U.S., it's likely consumers will now see an increase year-round, including the summer months.
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The USDA's most recent forecast cites 93% of the U.S.'s tomato imports coming from Mexico. Growers are already preparing for the change, with the report stating that "producers are expected to reduce planting in the autumn-winter season in response to the U.S." With this seasonal anticipation, the amount of available agricultural work may also decrease.
Canada and Guatemala are the next biggest trade partners to the U.S. as of 2023, as reported by the World Integrated Trade Solution, but the countries still only account for a small percentage of total tomato imports.
What does this mean for your grocery store bill? Well, aside from purchasing the vegetable outright, tomatoes are a staple ingredient in so many of your everyday foods—salsas, sauces, ketchup, pizza, etc. So, should these tariffs come into full effect, your grocery receipt will begin to see a subtle price change (especially in the upcoming winter months, when the U.S. more heavily relies on imports of seasonal summer foods).Tomatoes May See a Big Price Increase Soon—Here's Why first appeared on Men's Journal on Jul 8, 2025