India gets new weather model — what's different, how it will improve monsoon forecast, and benefit farmers, explained.
India this week launched a new weather model with significantly boosted forecasting capabilities that can predict weather for smaller geographic areas more acurately and in a localised manner.
The indigenous weather forecasting system, developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS) is debuting this monsoon season, reports said. The new model is called Bharat Forecast System.
According to Union Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh, the new system places India among the global leaders in weather prediction, PTI reported.
The ministry has spent close to ₹90 crore on a new supercomputer to power the platform. The plan is to double the size of India's weather radar network in two years to feed the model with additional data, it said.
The new supercomputer Arka, was installed at the IITM campus last year with a capacity of 11.77 petaflops and storage capacity of 33 petabytes.
What does this mean? What are the benefits?
The new system can forecast at a resolution of around 6 km, double the previous capability and highest in the world— which means it can zoom in on smaller regions and give localised reports for better rainfall prediction and flood preparation.
More localised predictions will also help farmers make informed decisions ahead of weather events. The earlier resolution is 12 km.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told reporters the new system "will focus on all weather parameters, with rain being the key".
A more localised and accurate weather model will also aid in public safety announcements and arrangements.
Why did India need homegrown weather model?
Usually, the EU's Integrated Forecast System and the US' Global Forecast System are considered "gold standard", Bloomberg noted. Many countries, including India use their data to extrapolate for own regions.
Notably, these global forecast models have resolution between 9 km and 14 km, according to a PTI report.
Further, predicting rainfall in the tropics is much harder compared to areas further away from the equator. This is because the smaller weather patterns that drive precipitation in the tropics are harder to discern.
The new platform uses a grid structure to divide the globe into triangles and make predictions for areas as big as a cluster of villages.
M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences noted, 'The tropical region is a chaotic region for weather. The change in weather patterns is unpredictable and higher resolution models are required to capture the spatial changes. Earlier, we used to issue one forecast for four villages. The BFS will enable us to issue separate forecasts for each of the four villages.'
Minister Jitendra Singh added knowing the precise location and time of heavy rainfall can improve processes before and after a disaster — saving lives and money. Farmers can also better time their planting activities with more detailed forecasts, raising crop yields.
Singh added that the BFS would boost monsoon tracking, aviation, cyclone monitoring and disaster management, agriculture, waterways, defence, and flood forecasting, and also support key ministries.
(With inputs from Bloomberg and PTI)
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