It's a $US450 billion industry, and Australia is in prime position to become a player
The most important and sensitive part? Trump agreed that the emirates could buy the cutting-edge computer chips made by America's Nvidia that are powering the global revolution in artificial intelligence. The UAE's ambition is to become a leading global powerhouse in AI, the fastest-growing field of tech investment.
It's so sensitive that some of Trump's officials reportedly dissented, complaining that it risked the loss of one of America's few remaining technological advantages. The AI edge could 'leak' from the UAE to America's greatest rival, China, they feared. Washington bans the sale of the top-line chips to China. Trump signed the deal anyway.
The Wall Street Journal reported this deal as a 'coup' for Abu Dhabi: 'The United Arab Emirates has fewer citizens than the population of West Virginia. But an agreement to give the UAE coveted access to millions of the most advanced chips from Nvidia shows that the tiny, oil-rich Gulf monarchy knows how to play a clever economic game in the age of Trump.' The UAE's neighbour, Saudi Arabia, has announced a similar ambition to build an 'AI zone', supplied by Nvidia chips.
What does any of this have to do with Australia? First, the potential for China to conduct effortless sabotage of the US power grid shows that there is an accelerating need for nations to establish trusted supply chains for sensitive goods – especially now that a new global supply chain is about to be constructed for AI. The global market for AI infrastructure is worth around $US450 billion, according to Frank Holmes of US Global Investors. Australia is in prime position to be part of a trusted supply chain. The Biden administration listed Australia in the category of most-trusted nations.
Second, the UAE play shows that a fast-moving country can stake a claim to an industry that, to now, has been restricted largely to just three territories – the US, China and Taiwan.
And the moment is ripe for Australia, too, according to the official who led US tech security policy in Joe Biden's White House, Tarun Chhabra. He was in Australia around the time of the federal election and observes: 'I was struck by the sense of urgency and opportunity after the Australian election – 'if not now, when?' – for critical decisions at the nexus of technology policy and China policy.' The Albanese government is well-placed to seize the moment, he says.
'There's a healthy debate in Australia, as in many countries, about what sort of AI regulation to pursue. That is, of course, important. But there is also an opportunity to develop a strategy for growth and AI adoption, and attracting leading AI firms, especially US firms,' he tells me.
AI has crossed a key threshold. It was a subject of fascination in 2023 when ChatGPT was launched, he says. 'It was 'look at what the chatbot can do!'' And now? 'We are into the industrial application phase now. We could see in 2027-28 models as capable as the best humans in many fields of knowledge.'
Australian companies are alert to AI's potential for boosting productivity. The Tech Council of Australia's annual survey shows that AI is 'the defining technology trend' for 67 per cent of tech leaders. The council estimates that AI has the potential to create 200,000 jobs and $115 billion in economic value in Australia over the next five years.
'I think there's an opportunity for a national-level strategy to promote Australia as a hub for AI, to recruit talent' – especially now that the US is repelling skilled talent more than attracting it – 'as well as to build infrastructure and attract leading companies developing AI models and industrial applications,' says Chhabra, formerly the US National Security Council Coordinator for Technology and National Security.
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'And then there's also the national security layer – an opportunity to adopt frontier AI in the defence and intelligence establishment, and also to attract leading defence industrial base firms that are software-centric and, increasingly, AI-centric.'
Chhabra, an adviser to the Garnaut Global consultancy founded by Australia's John Garnaut and also advising the US AI start-up firm Anthropic, cites another Australian advantage – the domestic superannuation sector with its $4 trillion in funds. 'There's an opportunity for democratic capital to seize this window as we see transformative technology emerging,' he said.
'What capital and what energy can be mobilised? Australia's energy potential is enormous, and its geopolitical risk is lower.'
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