Leading Australian economist calculates Trump trade fallout
The global trading system is coming to terms with the latest arrangements delivered by the US President, overlaid with a web of exemptions and special deals.
Australia's leading economist calls it a kind of chaos, marked by vague agreements, big pledges, and the promise of bad data on the way.
Professor Warwick McKibben, Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Economics at Australian National University, and a non-resident senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
He's a Emeritus Distinguished Professor McKibbin of economics at ANU and a non-resident senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in Washington DC.
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The Australian
39 minutes ago
- The Australian
US axes mRNA vaccine contracts, casting safety doubts
President Donald Trump's administration on Tuesday announced it would terminate 22 federal contracts for mRNA-based vaccines, questioning the safety of a technology credited with helping end the Covid pandemic and saving millions of lives. The announcement, made by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., marks his latest effort to weave vaccine skepticism into the core of US government policy. "We reviewed the science, listened to the experts, and acted," Kennedy said in a statement. The health department's Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is "terminating 22 mRNA vaccine development investments because the data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID and flu," he added. "We're shifting that funding toward safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate." The changes affect Moderna's mRNA bird flu vaccine -- a move the company itself disclosed in May -- as well as numerous other programs, including "rejection or cancellation of multiple pre-award solicitations" from pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Sanofi. In total, the affected projects are worth "nearly $500 million," the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said. Certain late-stage projects were excluded from the move "to preserve prior taxpayer investment." "Let me be absolutely clear: HHS supports safe, effective vaccines for every American who wants them," Secretary Kennedy said. "That's why we're moving beyond the limitations of mRNA and investing in better solutions." Since taking office, Kennedy, who spent two decades sowing misinformation around immunization, has overseen a major overhaul of US health policy -- firing, for example, a panel of vaccine experts that advise the government and replacing them with his own appointees. In its first meeting, the new panel promptly voted to ban a longstanding vaccine preservative targeted by the anti-vaccine movement, despite its strong safety record. He has also ordered a sweeping new study on the long-debunked link between vaccines and autism. Unlike traditional vaccines, which often use weakened or inactivated forms of the target virus or bacteria, mRNA shots deliver genetic instructions into the host's cells, prompting them to produce a harmless decoy of the pathogen and train the immune system to fight the real thing. Though in development for decades, mRNA vaccines were propelled from lab benches to widespread use through President Trump's Operation Warp Speed -- a public-private partnership led by BARDA that poured billions into companies to accelerate development. The technology's pioneers, Katalin Kariko and Drew Weissman, were awarded the 2023 Nobel Prize in Medicine for their work contributing "to the unprecedented rate of vaccine development during one of the greatest threats to human health in modern times." ia/jgc
ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Why a showdown over Texas congressional districts could shape Trump's presidential future
Texas has become the site of a massive political showdown that could have a direct influence on US President Donald Trump's ability to continue his agenda. Democrats have scattered to friendly states across the country and warrants have been issued for their arrest. At the core of the fight is a map that could be key to Republicans retaining their majority in Congress. Here's a basic breakdown of the stoush. In late July, Texas Republicans put forward a proposal to redraw the state's congressional map. The map lays out the borders of Texas's 38 congressional districts (equivalent to Australia's federal electorates), which each vote for a politician to represent them in the US House of Representatives. Texas Democrats were quick to point out the new version of the map would result in Republicans gaining five seats. That's a tactic known as gerrymandering, where districts are redrawn to include more voters in favour of one party to give a political advantage. Democrats didn't support the proposal, but because they don't hold power in the Texas state legislature, they were unable to vote it down. So instead, they fled the state to prevent a vote entirely. Governor Greg Abbott retaliated by ordering the arrest of the Democrats and threatening to have them removed from office. The battle in Texas holds massive repercussions for Mr Trump's power at a federal level. Republicans currently only hold the US House of Representatives by a very fine margin of 219-212. But they are expected to lose seats in the midterm elections next year, when all members of the US House of Representatives stand for re-election. It means the Republicans are at serious risk of losing their majority. Redistricting Texas would give them a five-seat cushion, which could be what saves them from losing the majority. If Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, Mr Trump would need to negotiate with his opponents to get laws passed. Yes. The Supreme Court found in 2006 that there was nothing in the US Constitution that prevented Texas from redrawing its districts. In 2009, the court also found there were no judicial powers to stop districts from being redrawn for partisan advantage. Mr Abbott argues redistricting is necessary to better reflect voters who supported Mr Trump in the 2024 election, when he easily won Texas. "Gerrymandering can be done, or drawing lines, can be done on the basis of political makeup, as in Republicans versus Democrats, and there's nothing illegal about that," he said in an interview with Fox News on Monday. "All of these districts that are being added are districts that were won by Trump." Republicans hold the majority in the Texas State Legislature, so if the redistricting went to a vote, it would have been passed. Democrats sized up their limited power and options, and decided their only chance to put the brakes on the redistricting was to block the vote from going ahead at all. The Texas constitution requires at least two-thirds of the state's House of Representatives to be present when conducting legislative business. With 150 seats in the House, that means at least 100 representatives are needed, and while they don't have the majority, Democrats do hold 62 seats. As long as 51 are out of state, the House can't hold the redistricting vote. It hasn't worked when they've tried it in the past. They did so twice in 2003 to stop Republicans from redrawing voter maps. In 2021, Democrats fled for 38 days over an elections bill and new voting restrictions. These efforts only delayed the measures they were seeking to thwart — all were eventually passed when Democrats returned to Austin. The current legislature session runs until August 19, but Mr Abbott could keep calling 30-day special sessions until enough Democrats return. But districts need to be approved before the opening of Texas candidate filing for the 2026 midterms on November 8. So for Democrats to succeed with their current strategy, at least 51 would need to stay out of the state until then. Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu says Democrats will do "whatever it takes" to stop the proposal. Legal experts and even Republican state Attorney-General Ken Paxton say it would be difficult to enforce consequences against the Democrats while they are safely camped out in sympathetic states. "Until they show up themselves back in Texas, sometimes it's hard to actually execute on that," Mr Paxton said in an interview with conservative podcaster Benny Johnson. When Democrats left Texas in 2021, the Texas Supreme Court held that House leaders had the authority to "physically compel the attendance" of missing members. But no Democrats were forcibly brought back to Texas after warrants were served. While House Speaker Dustin Burrows has issued civil arrest warrants for the missing Democrats, it's unclear whether they can or will be enforced outside Texas's borders. Mr Abbott has ordered the state troopers to find and arrest the Democrats, threatened to have them removed from office and has officially asked the state's highest court to remove Mr Wu, arguing he has vacated his seat. The attorney-general said having seats declared vacated could be a long process, and would require individual lawsuits filed against each missing representative. Still, Mr Paxton said he would press ahead with lawsuits if the Democrats had not returned by Friday. "We'll see where it goes," Republican state senator Charles Perry said. The Democrats will likely be hit with a hefty bill, though. Refusing to show up for a legislative session is a civil violation of legislative rules, and each representative can be fined $500 for every day they are not at the Capitol. Democratic-controlled states have warned if Texas goes ahead with redistricting, they could so the same. California Governor Gavin Newsom has asked politicians in his state to find ways for the Democrats to increase their majority. Governors Kathy Hochul in New York and JB Pritzker in Illinois have made similar calls. "Everything's on the table," Mr Pritzker wrote in a post on X. "Republicans are using every method they can, whether it's cheating or breaking the law. "We've got to do everything we can to stand up and fight back — we're not sitting around and complaining from the sidelines when we have the ability to stop them." Republicans are looking beyond Texas, too. Vice-President JD Vance is expected to bring the redistricting fight to Indiana as he meets with Governor Mike Braun on Thursday. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has suggested he may pursue redistricting, too. ABC/wires
ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Grey nomad strikes gold unearthing nugget in outback
A Victorian man has unearthed a gold nugget worth around $40,000 while filming a prospecting tutorial video in WA's Goldfields with his wife.
