Pakistani Minister repeats claim without evidence on downing Indian jets
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Mint
3 minutes ago
- Mint
Trump's punishing tariffs to deepen the slump in one large corner of Indian banking
Mumbai: Indian banks have low exposure to the sectors in the direct line of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. Yet, as trade disruption ripples through the economy, they may not escape a further slowing in corporate loans. Sectors including textiles, jewellery, apparel, seafood, machinery and mechanical appliances, chemicals, and auto components are expected to bear the brunt of the 50% tariffs on Indian goods entering the US. Direct lending by top banks such as State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank to these industries is estimated to be about 10% of the overall loans, limiting the impact on lenders. What is concerning is the second-order hit. There are three primary reasons behind concerns about a potential slowdown in corporate credit growth on account of tariffs, according to analysts at Fitch group company CreditSights. 'First, we expect banks to be more cautious to lend to export-oriented companies, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on US demand, as the 50% tariff would have a significant impact on their businesses," Lim Ze Hao, analyst, financials at CreditSights, told Mint. It is likely that export orders are put on hold or even scrapped as US buyers seek cheaper alternatives from countries with lower tariffs, he said. Second, with the high tariff rate now and some uncertainty over where the tariff rate will eventually settle, exporters and manufacturing firms are likely inclined to pause expansion plans, resulting in reduced demand for bank loans. According to Ze Hao, finally, the 50% tariff rate will also have a moderate drag on India's GDP growth. 'Slower GDP growth typically translates into slower overall system loan growth, as businesses become more conservative about expanding operations because of slower demand, and consumers will also be more cautious about making major purchases." India's growth rate is estimated to decline by 20-30 basis points as US President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on trading partners to fulfil his election promise of bringing back jobs to the US. India faces one of the highest levies, at 50%, including 25% for buying Russian energy. Indian conglomerates have already flagged uncertainties emanating from tariffs. Corporate credit slump Reliance Industries, in its annual report, warned that 'continuing geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties may affect trade flows and demand‑supply balance" for its oil-to-chemicals business that encompasses transportation fuels, and polyesters, among others. JSW Steel said in its annual report that 'the policy uncertainty is adversely affecting business and consumer confidence". Demand for corporate loans wasn't strong even before Trump started using tariffs as a negotiating stick. Indian banks have been waiting for corporates to borrow more. A recovery in credit demand has been impeded by the companies' reluctance to embark on new capital expenditure and their use of internal accruals, instead of bank loans, to fund projects. Bank loans to industries—micro, small, medium, and large—stood at ₹39.3 trillion at end-June, up 5.5% on year. Yet, the growth has slowed down from 8.1% seen in the previous year. The segment accounted for 21.4% of the overall non-food credit of banks in June, down from 22.1% in the same period of the previous financial year. Non-food credit excludes loans to the Food Corporation of India. A Mint analysis of cash holdings of 285 BSE-listed firms, excluding banking, financial services and insurance companies, showed a 12% year-on-year rise to ₹5.09 trillion in FY25. However, new project announcements—a proxy for capital expenditure—fell 5% in FY25, following a 3% contraction in FY24, Mint reported on 6 July, citing data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Lenders still optimistic Banks are hopeful that corporate loan demand will recover.C.S. Setty, chairman, State Bank of India (SBI), said on 8 August that corporate loan demand is expected to be at least 10% in the December quarter of the current financial corporate loan book grew 5.7% year-on-year, down from 15.9% a year earlier. The state-owned lender's total domestic loan book expanded 11.1% in the June quarter versus 15.6% a year earlier. Sashidhar Jagdishan, chief executive of HDFC Bank, told analysts on 19 July that the bank is 'not seeing anything great on the capital, private capex side as yet". However, the private lender 'shall surely participate in across all our segments, whether it is rural, whether it is retail, whether it is MSME and whether it is corporate as well". But it's not just that the demand for corporate loans has slowed down. 'There is a general demand slowdown, whether it is consumption in general or demand for corporate loans," said Anil Gupta, senior vice-president and group head of financial sector ratings, Icra Ltd. 'Banks would be ready to fund but in an uncertain environment, loan growth may remain tepid in the near term." According to Gupta, exporters may be in a wait-and-watch mode, given the uncertainty on tariffs and possible additional costs, which may reduce demand for working capital loans. As far as term loans are concerned, he said, clarity on demand revival may revive private capital expenditure.
Mint
3 minutes ago
- Mint
India may crack open the gates to Chinese inflows
New Delhi: Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit, India is weighing easier rules for Chinese investments in select sectors in another step to restore ties as New Delhi seeks to bolster trade amid US tariff uncertainty, said two people aware of the matter. The proposal under consideration is to identify non-sensitive areas such as specific segments of manufacturing, renewable energy, and consumer goods, where investment proposals from Chinese companies could be cleared through a faster and simplified approval process, said the first of the two people cited above. 'Talks are underway at the diplomatic level to find a workable solution, keeping sensitive sectors such as defence and telecom, and critical digital infrastructure to ensure that national security is not compromised even as economic benefits are realized," said the second person. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity. 'As there is no plan to review Press Note 3, investments from China will be considered through the government approval route and not via the automatic route," this person said. Under Press Note 3, investments from countries sharing a land border with India must be approved by the government first. India restricted Chinese investments after the deadly clash between the soldiers of the two nations in Ladakh's Galwan Valley in trade continued to grow as India relies on its neighbour for imports of pharmaceutical raw materials to electronic imports from China increased from $94.57 billion in FY22 to $113.45 billion in FY25. In contrast, exports to China declined from $21.26 billion in FY22 to $14.25 billion in FY25. Inbound shipments from China during April–July 2025 stood at $40.66 billion, up 13.1% from a year earlier. Exports to China jumped 20% to $5.76 billion during the period. On its part, China has also exerted pressure on India by leveraging its dominance in critical sectors. Its near-monopoly on rare earth magnets gives it significant leverage against India, which is heavily reliant on imports. China has also strategically controlled the supply of tunnel-boring machines (TBMs) used in major infrastructure projects, causing delays and increasing costs. This is compounded by the withdrawal of Chinese tech professionals from Indian manufacturing units, potentially disrupting operations. As Trump announced tariffs on its trading partners, New Delhi started easing some of the curbs to improve strained ties. India has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese nationals after a five-year gap. In a parallel move, New Delhi is preparing to restart direct flights to Beijing from next month, restoring air connectivity that has remained suspended since the Covid-19 pandemic. Modi will also visit China for the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. Queries sent to the ministries of commerce and external affairs remained unanswered till press time. Need to boost FDI Trump, meanwhile, imposed the highest 50% tariffs on India, including a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil. The first set of 25% duty came into effect on 7 August, while another 25% will come into force on 27 August, giving India time to negotiate. However, the sixth round of talks for the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), which was scheduled for 25 August, has been cancelled, and no fresh dates have been announced, leaving the negotiations in limbo. 'As India aims to achieve developed nation status by 2047, building a stronger manufacturing ecosystem and attracting greater investment(from China)without jeopardising the domestic sector will be the key drivers of this ambition," said Dr Amit Singh, associate professor, Special Centre for National Security Studies at JNU. India attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) worth $81.04 billion in FY25, up 14% from the previous year, data from the commerce ministry showed. The services sector emerged as the top recipient of FDI equity inflows, accounting for 19% of the total, with investments rising nearly 41% to $9.35 billion in FY25. However, FDI inflows into India had peaked at $84.83 billion in FY22, according to data shared by minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary in the Lok Sabha on 10 March. FDI slipped to $71.35 billion in FY23 and $71.27 billion in FY24, amid concerns over a potential global recession, economic crises triggered by geopolitical conflicts, and rising protectionist measures worldwide. Attracting Chinese investments is 'important as it could help replenish investment and address the recent decline in FDI flows", said Biswajit Dhar, a trade policy expert from the Delhi-based think tank, Council for Social Development. 'If India is able to attract more export-oriented investments—what is often referred to as investment-led trade—it could also have a positive effect on the country's rising trade deficit." The government targets to attract $100 billion in FDI in FY26. Modi's first visit since 2019 Meanwhile, Modi is scheduled to travel to Tianjin, China, to attend the SCO summit from 31 August to 1 September. This will mark his first visit to China since the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. He last visited that country in 2019. Ahead of the summit, the Prime Minister will visit Japan on 30 August to participate in the annual India-Japan Summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, after which he will head to China, according to media reports. In the run-up to Modi's visit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be in New Delhi from 18–19 August for the 24th round of special representatives' talks on the India-China boundary question with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, according to a statement from the ministry of external affairs.
Time of India
17 minutes ago
- Time of India
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar to take stage at ET WLF
New Delhi: External affairs minister S Jaishankar will be among the star participants at The Economic Times World Leadership Forum on Saturday. Independence Day 2025 Modi signals new push for tech independence with local chips Before Trump, British used tariffs to kill Indian textile Bank of Azad Hind: When Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose gave India its own currency The signature event will feature more than 400 business captains, entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers from India and across the globe. Jaishankar will deliberate on pressing global challenges before India and the way forward. The two-day event, with the theme of The Next Global Order: Power, Purpose, Partnership, will kick off this Friday. The ET WLF will discuss major trends shaping the global order—from heightened geopolitical uncertainty to shifting trade dynamics. There will also be discussions on the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. Over the past seven years, Jaishankar has been at the forefront of shaping India's multi-alignment approach. He has tackled global geopolitical and geo-economic churn besides managing conversations with key powers such as the US and China. Live Events The minister has been instrumental in putting in place the Modi government's 'neighbourhood first' policy and building bridges with West Asia and across the Indo-Pacific. He has handled the Ukraine conflict and India's response with deftness, safeguarding India's national interests. Currently, he's leading India's diplomacy, navigating fresh crises arising from US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff-led foreign and security policies.
