
Analysts see Malaysia's oil production to remain under pressure in H2
RHB Investment Bank said in a note on Monday that this decline is moderating compared to previous quarters, indicating some stabilisation due to improved field performance and operational efficiencies, especially in mature fields.
According to the research house, natural gas production may also contract slightly in the second half, primarily due to planned maintenance shutdowns of key facilities in Sarawak and West Malaysia, as well as moderating demand from major liquefied natural gas (LNG) importers like Japan and South Korea.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research also said in a recent note that the Malaysian upstream outlook is stable but cautious, as committed investments could be offset by global oil price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and the broader energy transition agenda. Cost discipline and efficiency also remain paramount.

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Addressing rampant waste (especially plastic and e-waste), pollution, and carbon emissions is crucial for public health, ecosystem preservation, and meeting climate commitments. As major markets (EU, US, Japan) impose stricter circularity standards and carbon border adjustments (CBAM), Malaysian exports must adapt to remain competitive. The NIMP positions industries proactively. The plan's focus on key sectors like E&E, chemicals, aerospace, and medical devices, where circularity can yield significant material savings and innovation, is strategically sound. The emphasis on integrating SMEs into the circular value chain is also vital for inclusive growth. Despite its strong foundation, translating the NIMP's circular ambitions into tangible results faces formidable challenges. While targeting waste as a resource is key, Malaysia lacks the scale and sophistication of collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure needed, particularly for complex waste streams like e-waste or composites. The plastic recycling rate stagnating around 24-28% highlights this gap. Building this infrastructure requires massive, coordinated public and private investment far beyond current commitments. Shifting entire industrial processes to circular models demands significant upfront capital. SMEs, the backbone of the economy, struggle to access affordable green financing. While NIMP mentions blended finance, concrete mechanisms to de-risk investments for banks and attract large-scale institutional capital are still nascent. The estimated RM100-150 bil funding gap for NIMP goals looms large. The success of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes – crucial for shifting waste management costs to producers – hinges on robust, consistent regulation and enforcement. Delays in finalising and implementing mandatory EPR frameworks for key sectors create uncertainty and allow laggards to persist with linear models. Policy alignment across federal, state, and local levels remains a persistent challenge. Circular products often face cost disadvantages against virgin materials due to distorted economics (e.g., fossil fuel subsidies). Government procurement policies favouring circular products need strengthening. More importantly, fostering genuine *consumer and B2B demand* for repaired, remanufactured, or recycled-content goods requires overcoming perceptions and building trust in quality and performance. Moving beyond basic recycling to high-value circularity (e.g., chemical recycling, advanced remanufacturing, biomaterials) requires significant R&D and technology adoption. Bridging the 'valley of death' between lab innovation and commercial scale demands targeted support, pilot facilities, and stronger industry-academia collaboration – areas needing acceleration under NIMP. The NIMP's initial stage has likely involved crucial groundwork – setting targets, establishing governance structures (like the NIMP Council), and initiating studies. The real test begins now. To avoid the circular economy becoming merely a buzzword within the master plan, Malaysia must finalise and implement mandatory, sector-specific EPR schemes with clear timelines and enforcement teeth. Streamline permitting for circular economy projects. And move beyond promises to operationalise innovative financing mechanisms (green bonds, guarantees, results-based finance) specifically tailored for circular SMEs and infrastructure projects. Leverage development banks and international green funds aggressively. We need to build infrastructure at scale. Prioritise public investment in integrated waste management and recycling parks, leveraging PPP models where feasible. Focus on closing loops for priority waste streams identified in NIMP. Implement stringent green public procurement rules. Launch awareness campaigns targeting businesses and consumers. Explore fiscal incentives for circular products and disincentives for linear ones. Fostering innovation ecosystems is the way forward. Establish dedicated circular economy innovation hubs with pilot lines. Provide grants and technical assistance for SMEs adopting circular tech. Strengthen linkages between universities, research institutes, and industry. It is important to ensure workforce reskilling programmes are integral to the circular shift, protecting jobs while creating new, higher-quality opportunities. Support SMEs in navigating the transition. Malaysia's NIMP 2030, with its core focus on the circular economy, is a visionary response to global and domestic challenges. It deserves recognition for setting a bold direction. However, vision alone is insufficient. The first year has exposed the sheer scale of the transformation required. The coming year is critical. It must move from planning to unambiguous action, tackling the financing gaps, infrastructure deficits, regulatory hurdles, and market barriers head-on. The circular transition is not merely an environmental add-on; it's the bedrock of future industrial resilience, competitiveness, and sustainable growth. Malaysia has the blueprint. Now, it needs the relentless execution, the political will, and the collaborative spirit to turn its circular vision into reality. The world is moving in this direction; Malaysia's window to lead, not just follow, in the region is open, but it won't stay open forever. The NIMP's success hinges on treating the next year not as a continuation of planning, but as the urgent launchpad for tangible, transformative change. The circular future is not just green; it must be golden for Malaysia. —Aug 17, 2025 The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia. Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim is an associate fellow at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, Universiti Malaya. Main image: Unsplash