The Israel-Iran ceasefire holds hidden costs for Iranians hoping for the end to an oppressive regime - ABC Religion & Ethics

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NOTE: The author has requested to remain anonymous due to safety concerns for them and their family in Iran.
While Israel's overt objective in its recent military campaign has been to halt Iran's nuclear advancement, its strikes have carried an equally potent, and perhaps unintended, message to the Iranian populace: this regime cannot even defend its own territory. By systematically degrading air-defence batteries, command centres and key missile sites, Israeli has undercut the regime's invincibility — an image also achieved by what was described as Israel's 'total control of the skies over Tehran'.
These blows exposed Iran's internal fragility, fuelling domestic critics who have long accused the Islamic Republic of prioritising regional ambition over citizen welfare.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself has hinted that crippling Iran's military apparatus could pave the way to dismantle its hard-line leadership. On 23 June Reuters reported that Israeli air strikes hit not only nuclear and missile facilities but also 'the headquarters of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Basij militia' in central Tehran. By targeting this repressive infrastructure, Israel sent a dual signal: external military vulnerability and the potential for domestic fractures.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a speech on the occasion of Basij Week, organised by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps on 25 November 2024. (Photo by Iranian Leader Press Office / Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Trump administration initially disavowed any intention of regime change, mindful of past interventions. However, under intense pressure from Congress to end the conflict quickly, President Trump brokered a ceasefire on 24 June — only to chastise both sides when violations followed. Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, announced that the country will 'continue their nuclear programme without interruption', underscoring the fact that the truce does not signal an end to strategic competition, only a pause in open hostilities.
President Donald Trump had earlier stoked the debate on regime change in Iran that galvanised both hard-liners (labelled as 'foreign-backed traitors') and reformist factions (who saw it as a rare external endorsement of internal change). He later walked back any talk of overthrowing the regime, warning it 'would cause chaos'. This hasty truce may have halted the missiles, but it risks reinforcing the internal security state the strikes sought to expose.
Mass arrests and summary executions
Iran's missile exchanges with Israel may have dominated headlines, but beneath the thunder of air strikes lies Tehran's deeply entrenched security apparatus — the very bedrock of its political survival. After the 24 June ceasefire, Iran's security forces started spreading a false narrative about Iran's victory, launching fresh detentions, show trials and executions.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its paramilitary Basij force and the Ministry of Intelligence have seized the cover of war to intensify repression and silence critics. These forces that are deeply settled inside Iran's cities and villages, and even abroad, have long crushed student protests, religious minorities and reformist movements alike — security units detaining thousands and opening fire on crowds many times since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
An Iranian Armed Forces General Staff outlet confirmed fresh Basij checkpoint deployments nationwide to 'promote internal security and regime stability' amid the conflict. In the days since Israeli strikes on 13 June, hundreds have been arrested and thousands detained on suspicion of 'collaborating' with Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad. On 15 June, Gholamhossein Mohseni Eje'i, the head of Iran's judiciary, instructed prosecutors to punish anyone who 'disturbs public peace and security or collaborates with Israel,' stressing:
these cases should be reviewed and fast-tracked under the pertinent wartime statutes, and any verdicts should be executed swiftly … If proceedings for some individuals drag on for two or three months, the deterrent effect is lost.
In two weeks, six people were hanged: three alleged spies (Esmaeil Fekri, Mohammad Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh and Majid Mosayebi) were executed following summary trials, and after the ceasefire three Kurdish cross-border porters (Idris Aali, Azad Shojaei and Rasoul Ahmad Rasoul) were accused of collaborating with Israel. Over 700 individuals have now been arrested on similar charges. Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRA) condemned the trials as 'arbitrary' and warned that those detained face disappearance, torture and other forms of maltreatment without recourse or redress. Commentators have likewise warned that any ceasefire without safeguards could lead to mass extrajudicial executions worse than 1988 purges.
Tools of repression
Executions are only the tip of Tehran's coercive toolkit. When the cost of a public hanging becomes too high, the IRGC and Basij routinely resort to other brutal methods. During the 2022 'Women, Life, Freedom' protests, for example, Iran Human Rights documented that security forces 'intentionally and systematically targeted protesters' eyes and faces', firing metal pellets and rubber bullets at close range to maim rather than kill, leaving victims with permanent disfigurement and profound psychological trauma. Such tactics serve a dual purpose: they deter future dissent through visible horror and sidestep the international outcry that accompanies executions.
Moreover, political prisoners are paying a steep price. Evin prison, Iran's most notorious detention centre, lies perilously close to targeted military installations. On 23 June 2025 Israeli jets struck the prison's entrance to demonstrate its ability to reach deep into Iran's core security sites, but also to symbolically challenge the regime's repressive apparatus, offering a show of solidarity with embattled dissidents. However, this escalation has compounded the danger faced by those trapped inside. Families and insiders report that guards have refused to evacuate inmates during air-raid alerts, leaving them 'helpless under collapsing ceilings' and cut off from food, medicine and communication.
Photographs of Iranians allegedly killed since the Iranian Revolution are displayed at the 'Free Iran' demonstration on the National Mall in Washington, DC, on 22 June 2025. (Photographer: Aaron Schwartz / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Beyond physical violence, the regime has mounted a sweeping assault on independent information channels. In the first week of the conflict, Iran shut down the national internet, causing a roughly 97 per cent drop in traffic, in part to choke off external reporting and prevent Iranians from accessing uncensored news. Meanwhile, daily forms of repression continue unabated. Basij-affiliated networks send messages, warning any woman seen in public without a mandatory hijab with treason charges. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has formally delegated key powers to the IRGC high command from his bunker, cementing its grip on both military operations and domestic security enforcement.
Even after key IRGC and Basij sites were struck, Tehran mobilised mass anti-war rallies by regime loyalists. At the same time, anti-war protests by the Iranian diaspora in American cities — most notably in New York and Washington — pressured US leaders to show restraint. Many of these demonstrations have been fuelled by Tehran itself, with regime-linked funds directed to campus and city-centre protests.
What comes next
Iran's repressive system thrives on perpetual crisis. While many conflict-weary voices hoped for a ceasefire — which is now in place — for ordinary Iranians this pause is often frightening, knowing that a ceasefire grants the regime recovery time to update its coercive apparatus and redirect its full arsenal against civilians. Observers warn that only a ceasefire coupled with robust international monitoring and specific guarantees for detainees can break this cycle, and prevent Tehran from turning temporary relief into a permanent crackdown.
As the smoke of war clears, shining a light on Iran's domestic security apparatus will determine whether this conflict becomes a catalyst for regime change and democracy in Iran or simply the latest chapter in a never-ending story of repression. The lack of mass street protests, driven by exhaustion and fear, underscores Iran's need for international support and protection for domestic dissent. International diplomatic efforts — such as external pressure to hold a UN-backed referendum on political reforms — may help secure guarantees for detainees, institutionalise safeguards against arbitrary justice and chart a peaceful transition toward genuine accountability.
As an Iranian living in diaspora, I look to such interventions with cautious hope, trusting that only enforceable guarantees can shield our loved ones from an unchecked security apparatus.
The author is an Iranian academic at Monash University, who specialises in peace studies in higher education. Their work focuses on documenting the consequences of regional conflicts on civilian populations. The fact that the author wishes to remain anonymous reflects the treatment of Iranian dissidents by the Islamic Republic, both at home and abroad.