August Blues or Gains? Historical trends show mixed market performance
Historical market data reveals mixed performance trends for August, with both Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 showing gains in six out of the last ten years. Global indices like S&P 500 and Dow Jones also exhibit similar inconsistent seasonality. Investors anticipate continued volatility this month, influenced by US tariffs and other uncertainties, expecting Nifty to fluctuate within a specified range.
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Mumbai: For investors tracking historical market trends, August offers more questions than answers.Index performance data in August over the past decade show mixed trends with Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 having gained on six out of 10 instances. Even global indices have shown similar mixed seasonality trends, as US benchmarks S&P 500 and Dow have ended higher five times since 2015.With the looming uncertainty over the effects of US tariffs on India adding to haze, investors are bracing for a rollercoaster ride this month."The past decade's performance offers mixed signals for August, with returns being split. Like we saw July's typical seasonality not playing out this year, volatility is expected to persist in August as well, with the Nifty likely to trade within the 24,400-25,500 range," said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services . The Nifty ended at 24,768.35 on Thursday - the last day of July.According to Motilal Oswal, the Nifty on average has moved up 0.9%, while the Nifty 500 index has gained 1.25% in August between 2015 and 2024.
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Business Standard
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- Business Standard
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The Nifty futures fell and crude prices rose after US President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued an executive order imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on goods from India over its purchase of Russian energy. The Gift Nifty futures declined up to 0.9 per cent before recovering and were trading at 24,535 — down 95.5 points or 0.39 per cent — as of 8:45 pm. Oil prices climbed, with Brent crude trading at $69.2, up 0.85 per cent. The benchmark Nifty ended Wednesday's session at 24,574, down 75 points or 0.3 per cent. The latest tariffs are in addition to the 25 per cent tariffs already in place. 'The recovery of Gift Nifty indicates that the markets are likely to take Trump's announcement in their stride and are not shocked. Additional tariffs are more of a theatre and negotiation tool than an actual imposition,' said UR Bhat, co-founder, Alphaniti Fintech. 'We expect the markets to fall by 1–2 per cent in a knee-jerk reaction, but most would expect a resolution. Impact on GDP will be around 30–40 basis points if these tariffs are sustained for a year,' said Dhiraj Relli, managing director and chief executive officer, HDFC Securities. Trump on Tuesday had accused India of fuelling Russia's war machine. The US President had earlier escalated trade tensions by unilaterally imposing a 25 per cent tariff after months of negotiations. The additional tariffs come ahead of an August 8 deadline that Trump gave Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine. He has also threatened secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy.
Economic Times
15 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Apple stock jumps 6% on $100B U.S. pledge, powering Wall Street rally—Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq climb as McDonald's, Shopify gain; AMD, Disney, Super Micro retreat
Synopsis Apple stock rally lifted Wall Street on Wednesday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher, as investors cheered Apple's bold plan to invest $100 billion more in the U.S. economy over the next four years. This massive commitment came ahead of a major White House announcement and fueled strong confidence in tech stocks. Gains in McDonald's, Shopify, and Arista Networks added momentum, while Super Micro, AMD, and Disney dragged the market with weaker results. With tariff concerns and interest rate cut hopes in the background, investors are watching the Federal Reserve closely ahead of its September decision. Apple (AAPL) surged 6% on Wednesday after announcing a massive $100 billion expansion in its U.S. investment plan, lifting market sentiment and fueling a tech-led rally on Wall Street. The stock closed at $214.39, up over $11 intraday, accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500's 0.7% daily gain. Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, fueled by a sharp 6% rally in Apple Inc. (AAPL) after the tech giant unveiled a landmark $100 billion investment plan aimed at expanding its U.S. footprint over the next four years. The stock soared $11.47 to finish at $214.39, its highest close in weeks, and contributed nearly 50% of the S&P 500's total point gain for the day. Apple's move, expected to be officially announced at the White House later this week, would bring its total domestic investment to $600 billion, signaling strong confidence in the U.S. economy and providing a major sentiment boost to equity markets. Apple shares soared nearly 6% in Wednesday's trading session, accounting for almost half of the S&P 500's total gain. The surge came ahead of a major White House announcement, where Apple is expected to unveil plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S. over the next four years. This move, set to increase its total domestic investments to $600 billion, signals strong corporate confidence in the American economy and helped reassure Wall Street amid mixed signals from other sectors. S&P 500 : Up 0.7% : Up Nasdaq Composite : Gained 1% : Gained Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 97 points or 0.2% The rally was concentrated in tech-heavy sectors, largely thanks to Apple, while other parts of the market saw mixed performance due to a varied batch of corporate earnings reports. Apple (AAPL) : +6% ($214.39) – $100B U.S. investment pledge sparks optimism : +6% ($214.39) – $100B U.S. investment pledge sparks optimism Shopify (SHOP) : +20% – Revenue beat and bullish Q3 guidance lifted the e-commerce giant : +20% – Revenue beat and bullish Q3 guidance lifted the e-commerce giant Arista Networks (ANET) : +18% – Strong AI infrastructure demand powered earnings surprise : +18% – Strong AI infrastructure demand powered earnings surprise McDonald's (MCD): +3% – Beat expectations; Minecraft-themed campaign boosted traffic The broader market showed mixed reactions to a flurry of Q2 earnings results: McDonald's stock climbed 3% after beating both profit and revenue expectations. A marketing campaign tied to the popular Minecraft movie helped drive traffic and sales. climbed after beating both profit and revenue expectations. A marketing campaign tied to the popular movie helped drive traffic and sales. Shopify shares surged nearly 20% after reporting better-than-expected revenue and issuing a strong revenue forecast for the next quarter, signaling robust e-commerce trends . surged nearly after reporting better-than-expected revenue and issuing a strong revenue forecast for the next quarter, signaling robust . Arista Networks jumped 18% thanks to higher-than-expected profits and a bullish outlook tied to growing AI infrastructure demand . jumped thanks to higher-than-expected profits and a bullish outlook tied to growing . Super Micro Computer fell sharply, losing 21% , as its earnings and guidance disappointed investors after a period of high gains. Despite an 88% gain earlier in the year, the stock tumbled following a weak quarterly update. fell sharply, losing , as its earnings and guidance disappointed investors after a period of high gains. Despite an 88% gain earlier in the year, the stock tumbled following a weak quarterly update. Disney stock slipped 3% , even though the company beat profit expectations. Revenue missed the mark, and analysts noted that investors were expecting a more optimistic forward outlook, especially after the announcement of a tentative deal with the NFL giving ESPN access to NFL Network, NFL Fantasy, and RedZone rights. slipped , even though the company beat profit expectations. Revenue missed the mark, and analysts noted that investors were expecting a more optimistic forward outlook, especially after the announcement of a giving ESPN access to NFL Network, NFL Fantasy, and RedZone rights. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropped 6.6%, as its profit matched analyst forecasts but failed to impress investors who had driven the stock up 44% year-to-date. Solid projections weren't enough to overcome market fatigue and regulatory concerns over chip exports. Despite upbeat earnings in some corners, investors remain cautious about the overall economic outlook. Last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may move to cut interest rates as early as its next meeting in September 2025. Bond markets reflected this cautious optimism: The 10-year Treasury yield inched up to 4.24%, just slightly above Tuesday's 4.22% but still well below last week's levels. Hopes for a rate cut are being weighed against the risk of rising inflation, which could follow looser monetary policy. Still, many see easing by the Fed as necessary to offset pressure from Trump-era tariffs and global economic uncertainty. President Donald Trump's renewed focus on tariffs continues to worry some investors, especially in light of potential trade barriers on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and Chinese exports. These geopolitical tensions may be weighing on business confidence and hiring decisions, as reflected in recent employment data. Stock indexes across Europe and Asia also posted moderate gains on Wednesday, mirroring the positive momentum from Wall Street. Overseas optimism remains tied to the strength of U.S. tech earnings and a possible easing in Fed policy, though global markets are keeping a close watch on U.S. tariff developments and inflation trends. Apple's historic investment pledge and its stock surge helped lift the entire market, showing how one major move from a tech giant can change investor sentiment. Strong showings from McDonald's, Shopify, and Arista provided additional tailwinds for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. However, earnings disappointments from Disney, AMD, and Super Micro, along with ongoing tariff fears, underscore the market's underlying volatility. As September's Federal Reserve meeting approaches, Wall Street remains on alert. For now, Apple's bold commitment to the U.S. economy has delivered a much-needed dose of confidence. Q1: Why did Apple stock rise so much today? Apple stock jumped after news of a $100 billion U.S. investment plan that boosted investor confidence. Q2: What is driving Wall Street gains this week? Strong tech earnings, Apple's big investment, and hopes for interest rate cuts are lifting the markets.
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19 minutes ago
- Time of India
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