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Here's what brokerages expect from Bajaj Auto ahead of Q1 results on Aug 6
However, domestic volume weakness and adverse foreign exchange movement are seen weighing on overall performance. Ebitda margins are likely to decline 45-60 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y due to elevated raw material costs, higher ocean freight rates, and price competition.
Profit after tax (PAT) is expected to remain flat or grow marginally by up to 2.9 per cent Y-o-Y. Despite near-term headwinds, analysts remain positive on Bajaj Auto's export-driven momentum and resilient product mix.
Apart from that, in July 2025, the company's total sales rose 3 per cent Y-o-Y to 3,66,000 units compared to 3,54,169 units in July 2024.
On the bourses, Bajaj Auto shares were buzzing in Monday's session, rising as much as 1.89 per cent to an intraday high of ₹8,192.45. Around 11:30 AM, the Bajaj Auto share was trading 1.51 per cent higher at ₹8,161.85, while the BSE Sensex was up 0.38 per cent at 80,908.81.
Given this, here's what brokerages expect from Bajaj Auto in Q1 results:
HDFC Securities: Analysts at HDFC Securities expects realisations to remain largely flat on a sequential basis as an unfavourable domestic product mix is likely to offset gains from a stronger export mix. While the company implemented price hikes due to OBD-2 norms, these are expected to be neutralised by higher discounts and adverse forex movement. The brokerage projects Ebitda margins to decline, following stability in the previous year, due to increased raw material costs and a spike in ocean freight rates.
Accordingly, it estimates revenue at ₹12,244.9 crore, marking a 2.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase, with Ebitda margin at 19.8 per cent, down 45 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y, and profit after tax (PAT) at ₹2,003.2 crore, a marginal rise of 0.7 per cent Y-o-Y.
Nuvama: The brokerage expects volume growth and better realisations to support slight revenue growth on a Y-o-Y basis. However, it anticipates Ebitda margin contraction due to weaker gross margins. The brokerage believes the key factors to watch will be demand visibility and timelines for new product launches. It estimates revenue at ₹12,288.4 crore, up 3 per cent Y-o-Y, with Ebitda flat at ₹2,409.9 crore, and adjusted PAT at ₹2,023.7 crore, reflecting a 2 per cent Y-o-Y increase.
Kotak Institutional Equities: Those at Kotak Institutional Equities noted that volumes likely rose 1.1 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY26, aided by a 32 per cent Y-o-Y surge in the export three-wheeler segment and a 14 per cent Y-o-Y rise in the export two-wheeler segment, both benefiting from a favourable base. These gains are expected to be partly offset by a low single-digit decline in domestic three-wheeler volumes and a high single-digit drop in domestic two-wheeler volumes.
The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of 3.1 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹12,303.2 crore, driven by a combination of volume gains and a 2 per cent increase in average selling prices (ASPs) on account of a richer export mix and PLI incentives. However, it expects Ebitda margin, including PLI, to fall 60 bps on a sequential basis due to commodity cost pressures, price cuts in competitive segments, and INR appreciation against the USD, partially offset by the favourable product mix. It expects adjusted net profit to decline 1.5 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹2,018.6 crore, with overall volumes estimated at 11,11,237 units.
InCred Equities: Analysts at InCred Equities holds a more optimistic view and anticipates a healthy performance from Bajaj Auto in Q1FY26, led by strong export growth, lower input costs, and a favourable product mix. Despite softness in domestic volumes, the brokerage maintains a positive stance on the company due to its export strength and margin resilience.
It projects revenue at ₹12,678.8 crore, representing a 6.3 per cent Y-o-Y rise, with Ebitda expected at ₹2,595.4 crore, up 6 per cent Y-o-Y, and adjusted PAT at ₹2,109.1 crore, indicating a 2.9 per cent Y-o-Y increase.
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