Zelenskyy's two big tests

Politico

23-07-2025

With help from John Sakellariadis, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman
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Ukrainian and Russian officials returned to the negotiating table today in Istanbul, after a more than seven-week gap in peace talks. Yet Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has more than just Moscow's hardball demands in Turkey to worry about.
Thousands of protestors took to the streets Tuesday in the largest anti-government demonstrations in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion three years ago, as Zelenskyy signed into law a bill that critics say nixes the independence of Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdogs. And even some of Kyiv's staunchest defenders are uneasy about the move.
EU chief URSULA VON DER LEYEN today became the most senior European official to criticize Kyiv. A spokesperson for the European Commission told reporters today that 'President von der Leyen conveyed her strong concerns about the consequences of the amendments, and she requested the Ukrainian government for explanations,' per our colleagues Yurii Stasiuk, Gabriel Gavin and Tim Ross.
The move is seen in many corners as a power grab by Zelenskyy's influential chief of staff ANDRIY YERMAK, who has a track record of rubbing U.S. officials the wrong way. And it will likely not allay concerns about corruption in Ukraine.
'This is such a self-inflicted wound,' said a person close to the Ukrainian government, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the move.
Far-right critics of Kyiv in the United States — chiefly Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) — used the bill as a cudgel against U.S. support for Ukraine. Greene called for Zelenskyy to be ousted from office in a post on X on Tuesday.
Expectations were low going into the talks Wednesday, even as President DONALD TRUMP has taken Moscow to task over its continued bombardment of Ukraine, setting a 50-day deadline last week for the Kremlin to strike a deal or face steep U.S. tariffs.
'I don't think it makes any difference at all,' said THOMAS GRAHAM, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, on Moscow's reaction to Trump's ultimatum. 'They're not particularly concerned about sanctions; they're certainly not concerned about tariffs,' Graham said.
Negotiations between the two countries resumed in May after a three-year hiatus. The two previous rounds of talks in Istanbul succeeded in securing prisoner swaps but have made little headway in ending the war.
In an address Tuesday evening, Zelenskyy said that he was seeking a 'complete ceasefire' through talks, as Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities with some of the most intense barrages of drone and missile strikes of the war to date in recent weeks.
Ukrainian officials have previously called for a 30-day cessation of hostilities as a prelude to negotiations to end the war.
But Russia, which has shown little sign of climbing down from the maximalist goals it held at the outset of the war, has issued a lofty list of demands, including a pause in western arms deliveries and the demobilization of the Ukrainian military, that it seeks to secure before agreeing to any ceasefire.
After a rocky start, Ukraine has been keen to win over the new Trump administration, as the president has sought to broker an end to the conflict, now in its fourth year.
'They just want to demonstrate, rightly, that they are not the impediment,' said the person close to the Ukrainian government.
The Inbox
FAMOUS NAME AT ODNI: Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD has installed Health Secretary ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.'s daughter-in-law to a senior role inside the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, in what appears to be one element of a broader shake-up at the U.S. spy agency.
Former CIA operative AMARYLLIS FOX KENNEDY was first listed as the deputy director of national intelligence for policy and capabilities on ODNI's website last Friday, according to archived internet data. In addition, Gabbard dismissed the agency's chief financial officer, JON ROSENWASSER, earlier this month, according to three people with knowledge of the move, granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of intelligence community personnel matters.
Spokespeople for Senate Intelligence Chair TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), who reportedly blocked Fox Kennedy from a top CIA appointment last year, did not respond to a request for comment on the move.
It's unclear why Rosenwasser was ousted, according to the three people, though he previously worked as the budget and policy director under the then-chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, MARK WARNER (D-Va.). Rosenwasser did not respond to a request for comment.
Asked about the moves, a DNI official referred NatSec Daily to web pages for Fox Kennedy and TIDAL MCCOY II, a former CIA contracting official, who has assumed Rosenwasser's old role.
HEGSETH'S EMAIL HEADERS: The email containing the battle plans which Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH relayed to top Trump administration officials via the Signal app in the presence of The Atlantic's top editor was labeled 'Secret,' per The Washington Post's Dan Lamothe and John Hudson.
As Lamothe and Hudson write, 'the revelation appears to contradict longstanding claims by the Trump administration that no classified information was divulged in unclassified group chats that critics have called a significant security breach.'
It comes at a bad time for Hegseth, as he faces a probe from the Defense Department inspector general's office about his use of Signal requested in April by the Senate Armed Services Committee.
CONGRESS CONFRONTS CHINA COERCION: The U.S. should rally allies and partners to push back against China's alleged economic coercion tactics targeting countries whose policies displease Beijing, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan RAHM EMANUEL told a hearing of the House Select Committee on China today.
'The message from China is the same — submit or suffer. Beijing exerts economic pressure to achieve its political goals and bend nations to its political will,' said Emanuel. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has deployed targeted trade restrictions — blocking imports from countries including Lithuania, Australia and South Korea — to try to compel foreign governments to change policies Beijing objects to.
Emanuel called for a coalition response to such tactics, including increasing imports from countries that Beijing seeks to squeeze with trade curbs to blunt their impact on targeted economies.
Former Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON told committee members that resistance to China's economic coercion is a long-term problem immune to diplomatic remedies.
'The Chinese Communist Party fundamentally has a problem with representative democracies, and there are some irreconcilable differences between an authoritarian regime in China and the activities of free and open states,' said Morrison.
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Keystrokes
AI ACTION PLAN: The Trump administration is seeking to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence through slashing 'red tape and onerous regulation' under a new White House action plan unveiled today.
The plan called for AI to be free of any 'ideological bias' and recommended that references to climate change, misinformation and diversity, equity and inclusion be removed from a government AI risk management framework. The action plan also seeks to expedite the export of U.S.-made AI systems to allies around the world, and to boost the construction of new data centers and semiconductor plants.
The Complex
A GOOD DAY FOR RAID? A German defense company is developing a new technology that should make government employees look twice at the critters scurrying around their alleys.
As Reuters' Supantha Mukherjee, Sarah Marsh and Christoph Steitz report, German manufacturer SWARM Biotactics is working on 'spy cockroaches.' The tiny cyborgs, designed to look like everyone's least favorite pest, will be equipped with miniature 'backpacks' that allow for the robots to collect real-time data via cameras and can be controlled remotely by human users.
CEO STEFAN WILHELM told Reuters, 'They can be steered individually or operate autonomously in swarms' and deployed into potentially hostile environments.
The cockroaches under development are part of Germany's defense spending hike, as Berlin looks to modernize its arsenal. Europe, eager to please the Trump administration's desire for heightened defense spending, is also increasing its acquisitions, Reuters reports.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NUCLEAR ARMOR EFFORT: A bipartisan duo of first-term senators is joining forces to increase the use of nuclear energy at U.S. military installations as a way to insulate bases and other military sites from power disruptions.
Sens. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) and TIM SHEEHY (R-Mont.) are introducing the Advanced Reactor Modernization for Operational Resilience (ARMOR) Act of 2025, which would create a pilot program to deploy advanced nuclear microreactors or small modular reactors at some Army installations by 2030. The bill would also allow for multiyear contracts so the military can obtain energy from advanced nuclear reactors and encourage the co-location of AI infrastructure and data centers.
Kim argued the bill is necessary since 'energy resilience and innovation are at the core of shaping a strong national defense and economic future.'
The Trump administration has embraced nuclear energy as an added part of the nation's energy strategy. There is also growing concern that increased usage of AI technology will drive up the demand for electricity and that the current power grid isn't well-equipped to meet the expected increase in energy consumption. That makes it more likely the bill could become law.
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ARMENIAN RIGHT TO RETURN PUSH: A bipartisan group of House members is calling on the Trump administration to advocate for the rights of Armenians displaced from the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave during a 2023 military invasion by Azerbaijan.
Eighty-seven lawmakers wrote a letter to Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO calling on 'the Administration to actively engage with international partners and multilateral institutions to facilitate the return of Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh.' The letter was led by Reps. FRANK PALLONE (D-N.J.), GUS BILIRAKIS (R-Fla), DAVID VALADAO (R-Calif.) and BRAD SHERMAN (D-Calif), all co-chairs of the House Armenian Caucus.
Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians have been displaced since Azerbaijan launched a one-day incursion into the Armenian enclave in September 2023. The invasion followed a months-long Azerbaijani blockade of the territory, which Armenian diaspora groups in the United States condemned as a crime against humanity.
Trump in recent weeks has suggested that a peace deal to end the decades-long border dispute between the two Caucasus countries is imminent. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have moved closer to the United States — Armenia since Russia invaded Ukraine and Azerbaijan since Trump took office.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — FOR THE CHILDREN: A group of progressives wants to divert money from a controversial missile program to the nation's public schools.
Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) and Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.) introduced legislation in both the House and Senate today that would direct the funding going toward the Sentinel nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program toward the Department of Education. Sentinel, the progressives argue, is heavily over budget and delays with the program are derailing other efforts to restructure the nuclear arsenal.
'We are literally throwing taxpayer dollars down the deepest money pit ever created. When you are in a hole, stop digging,' Markey said.
It's unlikely the bill will become law — Sentinel has been a priority for many defense hawks on congressional spending panels. But it could expose fault lines within the Democratic and Republican caucuses in both chambers of Congress, as a cross-party coalition has emerged that's skeptical of unfettered defense spending.
Broadsides
STATE'S HARVARD PROBE: The State Department launched another investigation into Harvard University today, our colleague Nicole Markus reports, homing in on a program that allows the Ivy League school to sponsor international students and researchers to briefly work and study.
'The American people have the right to expect their universities to uphold national security, comply with the law, and provide safe environments for all students,' said Rubio in a statement. 'The investigation will ensure that State Department programs do not run contrary to our nation's interests.'
It's the latest effort by the White House targeting the prestigious university. In June, a federal judge blocked a Trump administration effort to prevent international students from enrolling at the university. Harvard was also the first school singled out for a pilot of expanded visa screening for students and researchers. Harvard has been under the microscope since the outbreak of campus protests against Israel's conduct of the war in the Gaza Strip; critics say Harvard and other elite institutions were too slow to respond to antisemitic actions on campus that stemmed from those protests.
Transitions
— The Senate on Tuesday night confirmed the appointment of senior U.S. intelligence officials at the Pentagon and Office of Director of National Intelligence. The upper chamber voted 51-46 to approve former career spy AARON LUKAS as the next principal deputy director of national intelligence, and 61-35 to approve BRADLEY HANSELL as the undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, the top intelligence role at the Pentagon.
— The Senate today also voted to confirm JOHN HURLEY as the next undersecretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence.
— ASH JAIN is now a senior fellow with the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition with China. He served previously as a senior policy adviser with the Department of Homeland Security.
— MARY SPRINGER SFORZA is now senior vice president of government relations for Rolls-Royce. She previously was director of legislative affairs at Lockheed Martin.
— AVERY BLANK is joining Qualcomm's AI legal team as senior legal counsel. She was previously counsel for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
What to Read
— Mickey Djuric, POLITICO: A Separatist Movement Is Brewing in Canada — But Don't Count on a 51st State
— Megan Janetsky, The Associated Press: El Salvador's new wave of political exiles say history is repeating itself
— Mara Hvistendahl, The New York Times: China Flexes Muscles at U.N. Cultural Agency, Just as Trump Walks Away
Tomorrow Today
— Atlantic Council, 8:45 a.m.: 'Europe's Digital Competitiveness,' with German Digital Minister KARSTEN WILDBERGER
— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The nomination of Navy Adm. DARYL CAUDLE to be chief of naval operations
— Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Achieving Adaptable Scale: Fielding Military Capabilities as a Service
— Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: Eleven years on: The Yezidi genocide and the road to recovery
— Atlantic Council, 4:15 p.m.: A discussion on 'mission integration in the defense ecosystem'
— Council on Foreign Relations, 6:30 p.m.: American Views on Global Leadership
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who should be targeted by spy cockroaches.