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Politico
5 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
How to take Hamas' latest hostage threat
With help from John Sakellariadis and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Hamas militants in Gaza are now using not just the fact that they are holding hostages but the well-being of those in custody as leverage against Israel. But that may be a sign of how weak Hamas' hand has gotten. Two years of war have decimated the group's leadership. It lacks the firepower to strike Israeli cities or seriously repel Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip. Now Hamas is negotiating to just preserve its survival as a powerbroker in the territory — and trying a lot of approaches. The militant group sees itself as having 'a weak hand, but lots of cards,' says JON ALTERMAN, who leads the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. That includes the hostages as well as the increased international concern over the humanitarian crisis in the territory and its ability to influence the future governance of the Gaza Strip. This morning, Hamas said that it would allow aid to reach the 20-some hostages it still has in captivity if Israel halts airstrikes in the territory. The offer follows the release over the weekend of two undated videos that show hostages EVYATAR DAVID and ROM BRASLAVSKI in grim condition. In the video released by Hamas, an emaciated David tells the camera he's barely gotten food or drinking water and is depicted digging what he describes as his own grave. 'It's sadistic, it's ghoulish, but it is extremely instrumental,' said longtime Middle East peace negotiator AARON DAVID MILLER. He argued that Hamas leadership recognizes the political pressures Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU faces as Israelis sour on the war and call for a deal that secures the release of hostages. The U.S. and Israel have vowed that Hamas will face severe consequences if any harm befalls the remaining living hostages. Yet Israel and the United States may also be revising their negotiating strategy. The New York Times reported late Sunday that U.S. and Israeli negotiators are preparing an 'all-or-nothing' deal to end the war in exchange for Hamas releasing the hostages and disarming. Hamas officials the Times spoke to didn't outright reject the hypothetical deal, but disarmament has been a nonstarter in past efforts to end the conflict. Alterman warned the militant group ultimately 'may be more comfortable with nothing' if it calculates that continuing the war advances its main goal to live to fight another day against Israel. Former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for the Middle East DANA STROUL added that Israel may also not ultimately want such a deal in the long term anyway. 'It commits Israel to end the war for good and demands that Hamas disarm and end its governance stranglehold on Gaza,' said Stroul, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank in Washington. 'These end states are tantamount to failure for both sets of leaders.' The Inbox RUSSIAN LOVE LOST: Russia isn't happy about President DONALD TRUMP's decision to deploy nuclear submarines close to Russia, but is choosing its words carefully. On Friday, the U.S. decided to deploy two submarines in response to threats from senior Russian official DMITRY MEDVEDEV that Moscow could use its nuclear arsenal against the United States. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters today that 'we would not want to get involved in such a controversy and would not want to comment on it in any way.' But he added that 'of course, we believe that everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric.' The ironic comments — after all, Russia has regularly threatened to nuke Ukraine throughout the course of its conflict with its neighbor — indicate a possible reticence from Moscow to further inflame tensions with the United States. Last week, Trump threatened tariffs against India for purchasing oil from Russia, and the president has pondered imposing secondary tariffs on countries that trade with Russia as soon as this week. Those tensions are all cascading as special envoy STEVE WITKOFF heads to Moscow later this week. The special envoy will likely try to make some headway in securing a deal to end Russia's three-year invasion of Ukraine, but may face some challenges in the face of Russia's continued strikes against Ukrainian cities. SPIES DOWN UNDER: A Chinese national has been charged in Australia with covertly collecting information about a Buddhist association in the country's capital of Canberra. The woman, who is an Australian permanent resident, is the third person to be charged under foreign interference laws enacted in 2018, the Australian Federal Police and Australian Security Intelligence Organisation announced. She is accused of covertly gathering information on a branch of Guan Yin Citta, a Buddhist association, in Canberra at the direction of the Public Security Bureau of China. Beijing has in the past looked to surveil religious minority groups around the world with ties to China to quell potential internal threats to the regime's stability. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A TRUMP VOTER PULSE CHECK: The conservative Vandenberg Coalition think tank released its August poll checking in on Trump voters' foreign policy views. NatSec Daily got a first look at the crosstabs, and they aren't encouraging for the arm of MAGA that has been pushing Trump to pull back from foreign wars. Per the poll, a majority of Trump voters said they see Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN as the main impediment to securing a ceasefire in Ukraine; only 18 percent of respondents blamed Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. And 76 percent of Trump voters want tougher sanctions on Russia. As for Israel, 83 percent of respondents said that they believe Israel has a right to defend itself and that the U.S. should support Israel's efforts to that end. That would contradict the complaints of some MAGA influencers that the Trump administration is embracing Israel at the peril of alienating the base. The poll, conducted July 24-28 by research firm Tunnl, surveyed 1,225 people who voted for Trump in 2024. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on social media at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes BLACK HAT'S SMALLER ADMIN CROWD: The cyber world is descending on the Black Hat conference in Las Vegas this week to talk about all things digital security. But the Trump administration isn't fielding as big a presence at the conference as it has in the past. Only two Trump administration cybersecurity officials are currently slated to appear at the confab in Sin City. MADHU GOTTUMUKKALA, acting director at CISA, will give a keynote speech about the agency's work to combat threats to critical infrastructure Thursday. And BAILEY BICKLEY, chief of Defense Industrial Base Defense at the NSA's Cybersecurity Collaboration Center, is slated to give a presentation Wednesday on the agency's efforts to strengthen the U.S. defense industrial base's cybersecurity. Black Hat will be the second consecutive major cyber confab with a scant Trump administration presence. The Trump administration didn't send many officials to the RSA Conference in April in San Francisco — though Homeland Security Secretary KRISTI NOEM did give a much-anticipated keynote at the conference. And the small showing is a sign that the Defense Department's eleventh-hour withdrawal from the Aspen Security Forum may not be limited to the Pentagon. It may indicate that other agencies in the second Trump administration aren't prioritizing the conference circuit in their efforts to build relationships with industry and talk to thought leaders outside of government who don't share their views. Just so you know, POLITICO Pro subscribers had this reporting first in today's Morning Cybersecurity newsletter. Want to become a Pro subscriber yourself? Click here for more information. The Complex BOEING DEFENSE WORKERS STRIKE: Around 3,200 workers at Boeing's defense facilities in the St. Louis area went on strike today after union members overwhelmingly rejected a contract that aerospace giant says would raise wages by 40 percent on average over four years. The workers — who are represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 837 — build several key military aircraft, including the F-15EX, T-7A trainer, F/A-18 Super Hornet and MQ-25 refueling drone. It's the second strike at Boeing facilities in less than a year. A nearly two-month strike of more than 30,000 at the company's West Coast facilities last year paused production of commercial and some military aircraft. Boeing, in a statement Sunday following the rejection of its offer, said it was 'disappointed' and argued its offer resolved the union's top issue — alternative work schedules. 'We are prepared for a strike and have fully implemented our contingency plan to ensure our non-striking workforce can continue supporting our customers,' its statement said. The union wrote on X shortly after the strike began: '3,200 highly-skilled IAM Union members at Boeing went on strike at midnight because enough is enough. This is about respect and dignity, not empty promises.' SPACE MOVES: NASA is turbocharging plans to replace the International Space Station and build a lunar nuclear reactor to compete with China in space. As our own Sam Skove reports (for POLITICO Pro subscribers), the agency is looking at two directives. One would aim to replace the aging, leaky International Space Station with commercially run alternatives and change how the agency awards contracts. The nuclear reactor order, meanwhile, directs the agency to start work on a means to power a lunar station. The goal is simple. 'It is about winning the second space race,' said a NASA senior official. On the Hill JOHNSON IN ISRAEL: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is in Israel leading a delegation of Republican lawmakers. The high-level GOP visit comes amid growing international frustration with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and follows a failed Senate vote on offensive weapons sales to Israel that still saw most Democrats vote to block arms transfers. The speaker and fellow lawmakers — a group that includes Reps. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), CLAUDIA TENNEY (R-N.Y.), MICHAEL CLOUD (R-Texas) and NATHANIEL MORAN (R-Texas) — met Sunday with Israeli Defense Minister ISRAEL KATZ and Foreign Affairs Minister GIDEON SA'AR. Axios reports that Johnson also visited an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank and is expected to travel to Gaza and visit aid sites run by the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, along with meetings with Israel Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and President ISAAC HERZOG. A previously planned visit by Johnson in June was postponed during the military conflict between Israel and Iran. At the time, Johnson was supposed to address the Knesset. Transitions NSA LAWYERS HEADING FOR THE DOORS: Three top National Security Agency lawyers who help oversee the agency's most sensitive surveillance activities retired in recent months, three people familiar with the moves told our own John Sakellariadis. Among the three are the second- and third-highest ranking lawyers in the NSA's office of legal counsel, ARIANE CERLENKO and PAUL MORRIS, and another senior lawyer in the office whose role was classified, said the three people. NatSec Daily granted all of them anonymity due to the sensitivity of intelligence community personnel matters. The departures of the three career civil servants predated the removal last Friday of the NSA's top lawyer, General Counsel APRIL DOSS, and it is unclear if politics played any role in the decisions. The moves nonetheless represent a significant blow to an office that works to ensure the agency's surveillance activities do not violate the constitution or federal law. The NSA declined to comment. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies is launching a new Cyber Taskforce to be led by JOSH STIEFEL, a former professional staff member with the House Armed Services Committee, and retired Lt. Gen. ED CARDON, former commanding general of U.S. Army Cyber Command. — GREG HELLMAN is now senior director for government affairs and communications at Leidos. He was previously communications director for Leidos' national security sector and worked at POLITICO. — SEAN CAIRNCROSS was confirmed to be White House national cyber director. He is a former RNC official and was chief executive of the Millennium Challenge Corporation during Trump's first term. — ADAM TELLE was confirmed by the Senate to be assistant secretary of the Army. — The Senate confirmed a spate of ambassador nominees before adjourning over the weekend, including Trump's picks to be U.S. ambassadors to Portugal, Uruguay, the Vatican and the European Union. What to Read — Nancy A. Youssef, The Atlantic: Pete Hegseth's Pentagon Is Becoming a Bubble — Gioconda Belli, The New York Times: I Was Banished by My Country's Dictator. What Happened to Me Is a Warning. — Jordan McGillis, National Review: Make SoCal Fly Again — Tyler Jost and Daniel C. Mattingly, Foreign Affairs: After Xi Tomorrow Today — Asia Society Policy Institute, 9 a.m.: Low Expectations Getting Lower: EU-China Relations After the EU-China Summit — Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: Examining Russia's assault on Ukraine's cultural heritage — Aspen Institute, 8 p.m.: A book discussion on 'Citizenship, Democracy, and America's Role in the World.'
Politico
23-07-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Zelenskyy's two big tests
With help from John Sakellariadis, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Ukrainian and Russian officials returned to the negotiating table today in Istanbul, after a more than seven-week gap in peace talks. Yet Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has more than just Moscow's hardball demands in Turkey to worry about. Thousands of protestors took to the streets Tuesday in the largest anti-government demonstrations in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion three years ago, as Zelenskyy signed into law a bill that critics say nixes the independence of Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdogs. And even some of Kyiv's staunchest defenders are uneasy about the move. EU chief URSULA VON DER LEYEN today became the most senior European official to criticize Kyiv. A spokesperson for the European Commission told reporters today that 'President von der Leyen conveyed her strong concerns about the consequences of the amendments, and she requested the Ukrainian government for explanations,' per our colleagues Yurii Stasiuk, Gabriel Gavin and Tim Ross. The move is seen in many corners as a power grab by Zelenskyy's influential chief of staff ANDRIY YERMAK, who has a track record of rubbing U.S. officials the wrong way. And it will likely not allay concerns about corruption in Ukraine. 'This is such a self-inflicted wound,' said a person close to the Ukrainian government, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the move. Far-right critics of Kyiv in the United States — chiefly Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) — used the bill as a cudgel against U.S. support for Ukraine. Greene called for Zelenskyy to be ousted from office in a post on X on Tuesday. Expectations were low going into the talks Wednesday, even as President DONALD TRUMP has taken Moscow to task over its continued bombardment of Ukraine, setting a 50-day deadline last week for the Kremlin to strike a deal or face steep U.S. tariffs. 'I don't think it makes any difference at all,' said THOMAS GRAHAM, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, on Moscow's reaction to Trump's ultimatum. 'They're not particularly concerned about sanctions; they're certainly not concerned about tariffs,' Graham said. Negotiations between the two countries resumed in May after a three-year hiatus. The two previous rounds of talks in Istanbul succeeded in securing prisoner swaps but have made little headway in ending the war. In an address Tuesday evening, Zelenskyy said that he was seeking a 'complete ceasefire' through talks, as Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities with some of the most intense barrages of drone and missile strikes of the war to date in recent weeks. Ukrainian officials have previously called for a 30-day cessation of hostilities as a prelude to negotiations to end the war. But Russia, which has shown little sign of climbing down from the maximalist goals it held at the outset of the war, has issued a lofty list of demands, including a pause in western arms deliveries and the demobilization of the Ukrainian military, that it seeks to secure before agreeing to any ceasefire. After a rocky start, Ukraine has been keen to win over the new Trump administration, as the president has sought to broker an end to the conflict, now in its fourth year. 'They just want to demonstrate, rightly, that they are not the impediment,' said the person close to the Ukrainian government. The Inbox FAMOUS NAME AT ODNI: Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD has installed Health Secretary ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.'s daughter-in-law to a senior role inside the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, in what appears to be one element of a broader shake-up at the U.S. spy agency. Former CIA operative AMARYLLIS FOX KENNEDY was first listed as the deputy director of national intelligence for policy and capabilities on ODNI's website last Friday, according to archived internet data. In addition, Gabbard dismissed the agency's chief financial officer, JON ROSENWASSER, earlier this month, according to three people with knowledge of the move, granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of intelligence community personnel matters. Spokespeople for Senate Intelligence Chair TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), who reportedly blocked Fox Kennedy from a top CIA appointment last year, did not respond to a request for comment on the move. It's unclear why Rosenwasser was ousted, according to the three people, though he previously worked as the budget and policy director under the then-chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, MARK WARNER (D-Va.). Rosenwasser did not respond to a request for comment. Asked about the moves, a DNI official referred NatSec Daily to web pages for Fox Kennedy and TIDAL MCCOY II, a former CIA contracting official, who has assumed Rosenwasser's old role. HEGSETH'S EMAIL HEADERS: The email containing the battle plans which Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH relayed to top Trump administration officials via the Signal app in the presence of The Atlantic's top editor was labeled 'Secret,' per The Washington Post's Dan Lamothe and John Hudson. As Lamothe and Hudson write, 'the revelation appears to contradict longstanding claims by the Trump administration that no classified information was divulged in unclassified group chats that critics have called a significant security breach.' It comes at a bad time for Hegseth, as he faces a probe from the Defense Department inspector general's office about his use of Signal requested in April by the Senate Armed Services Committee. CONGRESS CONFRONTS CHINA COERCION: The U.S. should rally allies and partners to push back against China's alleged economic coercion tactics targeting countries whose policies displease Beijing, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan RAHM EMANUEL told a hearing of the House Select Committee on China today. 'The message from China is the same — submit or suffer. Beijing exerts economic pressure to achieve its political goals and bend nations to its political will,' said Emanuel. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has deployed targeted trade restrictions — blocking imports from countries including Lithuania, Australia and South Korea — to try to compel foreign governments to change policies Beijing objects to. Emanuel called for a coalition response to such tactics, including increasing imports from countries that Beijing seeks to squeeze with trade curbs to blunt their impact on targeted economies. Former Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON told committee members that resistance to China's economic coercion is a long-term problem immune to diplomatic remedies. 'The Chinese Communist Party fundamentally has a problem with representative democracies, and there are some irreconcilable differences between an authoritarian regime in China and the activities of free and open states,' said Morrison. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes AI ACTION PLAN: The Trump administration is seeking to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence through slashing 'red tape and onerous regulation' under a new White House action plan unveiled today. The plan called for AI to be free of any 'ideological bias' and recommended that references to climate change, misinformation and diversity, equity and inclusion be removed from a government AI risk management framework. The action plan also seeks to expedite the export of U.S.-made AI systems to allies around the world, and to boost the construction of new data centers and semiconductor plants. The Complex A GOOD DAY FOR RAID? A German defense company is developing a new technology that should make government employees look twice at the critters scurrying around their alleys. As Reuters' Supantha Mukherjee, Sarah Marsh and Christoph Steitz report, German manufacturer SWARM Biotactics is working on 'spy cockroaches.' The tiny cyborgs, designed to look like everyone's least favorite pest, will be equipped with miniature 'backpacks' that allow for the robots to collect real-time data via cameras and can be controlled remotely by human users. CEO STEFAN WILHELM told Reuters, 'They can be steered individually or operate autonomously in swarms' and deployed into potentially hostile environments. The cockroaches under development are part of Germany's defense spending hike, as Berlin looks to modernize its arsenal. Europe, eager to please the Trump administration's desire for heightened defense spending, is also increasing its acquisitions, Reuters reports. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NUCLEAR ARMOR EFFORT: A bipartisan duo of first-term senators is joining forces to increase the use of nuclear energy at U.S. military installations as a way to insulate bases and other military sites from power disruptions. Sens. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) and TIM SHEEHY (R-Mont.) are introducing the Advanced Reactor Modernization for Operational Resilience (ARMOR) Act of 2025, which would create a pilot program to deploy advanced nuclear microreactors or small modular reactors at some Army installations by 2030. The bill would also allow for multiyear contracts so the military can obtain energy from advanced nuclear reactors and encourage the co-location of AI infrastructure and data centers. Kim argued the bill is necessary since 'energy resilience and innovation are at the core of shaping a strong national defense and economic future.' The Trump administration has embraced nuclear energy as an added part of the nation's energy strategy. There is also growing concern that increased usage of AI technology will drive up the demand for electricity and that the current power grid isn't well-equipped to meet the expected increase in energy consumption. That makes it more likely the bill could become law. On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — ARMENIAN RIGHT TO RETURN PUSH: A bipartisan group of House members is calling on the Trump administration to advocate for the rights of Armenians displaced from the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave during a 2023 military invasion by Azerbaijan. Eighty-seven lawmakers wrote a letter to Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO calling on 'the Administration to actively engage with international partners and multilateral institutions to facilitate the return of Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh.' The letter was led by Reps. FRANK PALLONE (D-N.J.), GUS BILIRAKIS (R-Fla), DAVID VALADAO (R-Calif.) and BRAD SHERMAN (D-Calif), all co-chairs of the House Armenian Caucus. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians have been displaced since Azerbaijan launched a one-day incursion into the Armenian enclave in September 2023. The invasion followed a months-long Azerbaijani blockade of the territory, which Armenian diaspora groups in the United States condemned as a crime against humanity. Trump in recent weeks has suggested that a peace deal to end the decades-long border dispute between the two Caucasus countries is imminent. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have moved closer to the United States — Armenia since Russia invaded Ukraine and Azerbaijan since Trump took office. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — FOR THE CHILDREN: A group of progressives wants to divert money from a controversial missile program to the nation's public schools. Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) and Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.) introduced legislation in both the House and Senate today that would direct the funding going toward the Sentinel nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile program toward the Department of Education. Sentinel, the progressives argue, is heavily over budget and delays with the program are derailing other efforts to restructure the nuclear arsenal. 'We are literally throwing taxpayer dollars down the deepest money pit ever created. When you are in a hole, stop digging,' Markey said. It's unlikely the bill will become law — Sentinel has been a priority for many defense hawks on congressional spending panels. But it could expose fault lines within the Democratic and Republican caucuses in both chambers of Congress, as a cross-party coalition has emerged that's skeptical of unfettered defense spending. Broadsides STATE'S HARVARD PROBE: The State Department launched another investigation into Harvard University today, our colleague Nicole Markus reports, homing in on a program that allows the Ivy League school to sponsor international students and researchers to briefly work and study. 'The American people have the right to expect their universities to uphold national security, comply with the law, and provide safe environments for all students,' said Rubio in a statement. 'The investigation will ensure that State Department programs do not run contrary to our nation's interests.' It's the latest effort by the White House targeting the prestigious university. In June, a federal judge blocked a Trump administration effort to prevent international students from enrolling at the university. Harvard was also the first school singled out for a pilot of expanded visa screening for students and researchers. Harvard has been under the microscope since the outbreak of campus protests against Israel's conduct of the war in the Gaza Strip; critics say Harvard and other elite institutions were too slow to respond to antisemitic actions on campus that stemmed from those protests. Transitions — The Senate on Tuesday night confirmed the appointment of senior U.S. intelligence officials at the Pentagon and Office of Director of National Intelligence. The upper chamber voted 51-46 to approve former career spy AARON LUKAS as the next principal deputy director of national intelligence, and 61-35 to approve BRADLEY HANSELL as the undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, the top intelligence role at the Pentagon. — The Senate today also voted to confirm JOHN HURLEY as the next undersecretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence. — ASH JAIN is now a senior fellow with the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition with China. He served previously as a senior policy adviser with the Department of Homeland Security. — MARY SPRINGER SFORZA is now senior vice president of government relations for Rolls-Royce. She previously was director of legislative affairs at Lockheed Martin. — AVERY BLANK is joining Qualcomm's AI legal team as senior legal counsel. She was previously counsel for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. What to Read — Mickey Djuric, POLITICO: A Separatist Movement Is Brewing in Canada — But Don't Count on a 51st State — Megan Janetsky, The Associated Press: El Salvador's new wave of political exiles say history is repeating itself — Mara Hvistendahl, The New York Times: China Flexes Muscles at U.N. Cultural Agency, Just as Trump Walks Away Tomorrow Today — Atlantic Council, 8:45 a.m.: 'Europe's Digital Competitiveness,' with German Digital Minister KARSTEN WILDBERGER — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The nomination of Navy Adm. DARYL CAUDLE to be chief of naval operations — Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Achieving Adaptable Scale: Fielding Military Capabilities as a Service — Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: Eleven years on: The Yezidi genocide and the road to recovery — Atlantic Council, 4:15 p.m.: A discussion on 'mission integration in the defense ecosystem' — Council on Foreign Relations, 6:30 p.m.: American Views on Global Leadership Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who should be targeted by spy cockroaches.
Politico
27-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Trump says Iran ‘wants to talk.' Tehran disagrees.
Presented by With help from John Sakellariadis, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric President DONALD TRUMP said today that Iran 'wants to talk.' But Iran doesn't necessarily agree with that statement, and the prospect for U.S.-Iran diplomatic discussions following this weekend's attack is looking increasingly hard to pin down. After talk early in the week from Trump that talks between both sides would occur next week and comments from special envoy STEVE WITKOFF that U.S. and Iranian officials were already having conversations, Washington is still waiting on a date for formal negotiations over what happens next with the remnants of Iran's nuclear program. White House spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT said Thursday that no meeting with Iran had yet been scheduled. Iranian Foreign Minister ABBAS ARAGHCHI also told a state broadcaster Thursday evening that 'no agreement, arrangement or conversation has been made to start new negotiations.' That hasn't deflated the administration's optimism. During today's House briefings on the strikes, Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO repeated the same upbeat assessment he gave senators the previous day that a window of opportunity exists for negotiations to resume, according to lawmakers in both parties. Republicans in both chambers made the case that regardless of the extent to which the strikes eliminated Iran's nuclear capabilities, the Trump administration's strikes ought to force Tehran to the negotiating table. 'Nobody sugarcoated that the regime is going to somehow embrace America, but they certainly are at a point where they don't have any options,' said Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.). Not every lawmaker left the briefings today feeling so reassured. Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, warned that Tehran could still always go down the 'North Korea door' and secretly continue apace with weaponization until they test a nuclear device, as opposed to the 'door' of negotiations. 'I don't think today, we have any sense of which door they're going to walk through,' Himes told Joe. Part of the anxiety stems from the fact Iran's parliament on Thursday passed a bill withdrawing its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. That has alarmed analysts and former officials across the ideological spectrum. Both Foundation for Defense of Democracies' ANDREA STRICKER and former Assistant Secretary of State THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, who now chairs the board of the Arms Control Association, see the resumption of Tehran's cooperation with the nuclear watchdog as a prerequisite for talks. 'There is no long-term solution without the presence of IAEA inspection teams. And Iran needs to recognize that,' Countryman argued. 'And despite its anger at the whole world, including the IAEA, it should move fast to have those inspectors come back.' Stricker argues the onus is on Iran to modify its negotiating posture in light of the war before Iran gets any 'sweeteners.' She is not optimistic that Iran would give up its enrichment capabilities and any enriched uranium it managed to 'squirrel away.' But advocates for nuclear nonproliferation are urging the president to extend some more olive branches to Tehran. Countryman was joined by former officials, including former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control BONNIE JENKINS and former U.N. Ambassador THOMAS PICKERING in an open statement calling for the president to commit to 'real diplomacy.' Trump acknowledged in a Truth Social post today that he considered sanctions relief for Iran before Supreme Leader AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI declared victory in an address Thursday. The Inbox DOWNSIZING ODNI: Top Republicans on House and Senate spy panels are working in close coordination with Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD on a plan to overhaul the spy office she now helms, our own John Sakellariadis writes in. Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) and four other Republicans on the Senate Intelligence Committee unveiled a bill this morning that would cap the size of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, slash some of its analytic centers and transfer some of its functions elsewhere. ODNI was created after the 9/11 terror attacks to ensure spy agencies like CIA and FBI share key intelligence, but both parties have criticized it as overly bureaucratic in the years since. In a statement shared with NatSec Daily, Gabbard — who vowed to overhaul the office in her confirmation hearing — said she is 'working closely' with both Cotton and Rep. RICK CRAWFORD (R-Ark.), the chair of the House Intelligence Panel, on the legislative push. An ODNI official, granted anonymity to share more details about Gabbard's view on reforming DNI, said that plans for 'extensive reform and cuts' have been ongoing among ODNI and senior congressional staff since Trump took office in January. The official, who said Gabbard plans to announce her reform plans 'soon,' boasted that the office has already saved taxpayers millions by reducing its workforce by a fourth via a combination of early and regular retirements, terminations and the sunset of some offices. 'Find another agency who has reduced 25 percent of their workforce in four months on the job,' the official said. AN AFRICAN AGREEMENT: The State Department today hosted a ceremony for the signing of a peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, which hopes to end decades of on-and-off warfare between the two neighbors. It's a major win for the Trump administration, which invested resources in stopping fighting in east Congo after Rwanda-backed M23 militants launched a military campaign against the Congolese government. The deal, like many recent diplomatic accords, was co-brokered with the help of Qatar. It also highlights that Qatar's diplomatic prowess extends beyond the Middle East and its relationships with petrostates (see the Venezuela deal Doha helped broker). A PARED DOWN NSC: The White House made its decision to strike Iran with a National Security Council staffed with less than 50 experts, nonprofit news outlet NOTUS reported, amid an administration push to trim the headcount of the key national security body. One key adviser — WAYNE WALL, the senior director for Middle East policy — had been in his role for just a few days. The lack of staff raises concerns that Trump may have made the decision to strike with less information than typical, NOTUS said, quoting a person 'in communication' with current NSC staff. The NSC's staff numbered around 350 under the previous Biden administration, and it had around 300 staffers in the first Trump administration. Some administration officials and policy experts, however, have minimized the likely impacts of the cuts, citing long running frustration within the Pentagon and State Department with NSC micromanagement. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. We asked Andrea Stricker after chatting all things Iran to share her favorite drinks. Andrea told Eric that 'after a long work day, a simple J. Lohr Cabernet does the trick.' But she adds that on 'special occasions,' a vodka martini is her indulgence. She told us how she liked her martinis, and Eric is a fan. 'A very dirty Grey Goose martini with blue cheese olives, straight up,' she said. We'll have to give it a try. Cheers, Andrea! IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes PLUG ME IN: The Trump administration is preparing an executive order that would make it easier to build and power the data centers behind the U.S.'s race to beat China in developing artificial intelligence, Reuters reports today. The order would offer federal land to data centers and make it easier for new power plants to provide energy to the grid, which is overwhelmed by electricity demands from data centers. Building new power sources and connecting them to the electrical grid can take years due to the lengthy permitting process. Land for the effort could be taken from the Defense Department or Interior Department, Reuters reported, which collectively manage millions of acres of land. The administration is also planning on releasing an AI strategy and considering simplifying the permit process for data center construction. The Complex STARSHIP WOES: ELON MUSK's Starship rocket could revolutionize space travel — but a slew of disasters is raising questions about its testing process and leading to some concern in Congress. The rocket, the largest ever built at 403 feet tall, is designed to carry a large payload and be totally reusable. NASA has already spent $2.9 billion on a version meant to carry astronauts, and it could be used by the Space Force for a program meant to deliver supplies by rocket. But Starship has experienced four catastrophic failures, including blowing up on the launch pad this month. Two former SpaceX engineers, granted anonymity to discuss the test, said the failures were cause for concern, as they told our own Sam Skove for this morning's Space newsletter (preview here!). Given the money NASA has already spent, some in Congress are not happy. The launch problems are 'very concerning,' said one House committee aide, granted anonymity to discuss the issue. Still, Musk could yet pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. SpaceX is likely learning from each disaster, and Musk, the world's richest man, can afford to lose more than a few Starships to testing failures. And others in Congress appear to be cutting Musk some slack: The 'process necessarily entails trial and error,' said Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), who is a top voice on space as chair of the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NEW ARMOR FOR AUKUS? A bipartisan trio of lawmakers is introducing a bill to improve the process for arms transfers reviews regarding Australia and the United Kingdom under the auspices of the AUKUS pact. Rep. YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.), together with Reps. RYAN ZINKE (R-Mont.) and MADELEINE DEAN (D-Penn.), is introducing the ARMOR Act, which would increase the number of defense activities with Canberra and London eligible for expedited review. Among its provisions is language clarifying that 'reexports, retransfers, temporary imports, and brokering activities' are to be given expedited review at the State Department and reducing the number of actions under AUKUS requiring congressional notification. Kim told NatSec Daily the bill is needed as the pact moves into its second stage and will ensure it 'works as intended and with speed to deter pressing security threats' in the Indo-Pacific. The bill faces good odds of becoming law. AUKUS has been a bipartisan cause on the Hill and the administration has telegraphed its interest in boosting the pact to jointly build submarines. On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SREBRENICA BILL: The top foreign policy Democrat and the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee are banding together to reintroduce a bill commemorating the Srebrenica massacre during the Bosnian genocide. Senate Foreign Relations ranking member JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) are introducing the Srebrenica Genocide Remembrance Act. The bill would see Congress recognize the mass killing of 8,000 Bosnian men and boys in that village, one of the worst atrocities during the Balkan wars, and recommit to supporting the Bosnian government in its efforts to maintain a stable and democratic government. The issue has been dicey in the past, as Serbia's government has pushed back on previous efforts to commemorate the atrocity that it has felt unfairly castigated Serbia for past wrongs. But it has decent odds of passage given Shaheen and Wicker's influence on Capitol Hill. But Shaheen, who is also one of the most senior Democrats on the Armed Services Committee, told NatSec Daily that the bill is needed to ensure 'we may never forget the victims — more than 8,000 Bosniak men and boys — buried in those mass graves.' Broadsides DRL OFFICES RACE TO THE END: Some State Department offices expecting to face massive staff cuts in the coming days may indeed be 'checked out,' as an official told your host Thursday. But not all State Department offices are bracing for layoffs in the same ways. Almost immediately after Thursday's edition hit inboxes, we got some feedback from staffers and officials in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor that the offices within the bureau tasked with global programs and foreign assistance are racing against the clock to get as much done before their staffs — and some of the programs they've championed — are gutted. 'While some DRL policy offices may be sitting around, Global Programs has had active awards that everyone has been working long hours to handle properly before the RIFs on a daily basis,' one State Department official said. 'Making the assumption that people in DRL are just sitting around reflects poorly on people who are working very hard and overtime in foreign assistance in the bureau, despite knowing they're losing their jobs.' The staffers and officials noted that the efforts extend to projects the White House and State Department are looking to cancel, since pausing funding awards takes months and the processes to wind down those programs will continue even after staff leave the building. That will likely add to the headaches the cuts may create for the State Department employees who remain. Transitions — U.S. Ambassador to Russia LYNNE TRACY is leaving the embassy in Moscow, per an embassy statement today. The administration has not named her successor. — STEVE SULLIVAN, former vice president and general manager of Northrop Grumman's strike division, will join Boeing to lead its Air Force One VC-25B program, Breaking Defense reported. — JESSICA ADAIR BRINICH is now senior legislative and policy counsel at the Strategic Organizing Center. She previously was attorney-adviser for the Army's Office of General Counsel in the Biden administration. — ADAM TAYLOR, the former military legislative assistant and legislative director for Rep. SCOTT PETERS (D-Calif.), is now his Washington chief of staff. — JIM SMYTHERS is now senior director for government relations at Stratolaunch. He previously was in the Foreign Service and worked for the Senate Intelligence Committee. — CORY WILSON will be deputy assistant secretary for the Office of Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure Protection at the Treasury Department. He recently was the assistant special agent in charge of critical systems protection at the U.S. Secret Service. What to Read — Amy Mackinnon, POLITICO: She Delivered Intelligence Briefs to Trump. Here's Her Reality Check on the Iran Strikes. — Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker, The Atlantic: How Trump Lives With the Threat of Iranian Assassination Tomorrow Today Atlantic Council, 7:45 a.m.: 'Bolstering the Transatlantic Partnership at a Global Inflection Point' Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: 'What Do Strikes on Iran Mean for China, Russia, and North Korea?' Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who never want to talk to us. CORRECTION: Thursday's newsletter misattributed a quote about how a congressional committee should work to counter terrorism. The comments were made by House Foreign Affairs South and Central Asia Subcommittee ranking member SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Calif.). Kamlager-Dove said, 'if this committee is serious about countering terrorism, and we should be, it is essential that we not only maintain hard capabilities but deploy the tools that help our partners address the root causes of terrorism and radicalization.'
Politico
18-06-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Iran's nuclear Rorschach test
With help from John Sakellariadis, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Eric Programming note: We'll be off this Thursday but will be back in your inboxes on Friday. Is Iran close to developing a nuclear weapon with its vast stockpiles of highly enriched uranium? The answer depends on who you ask. Israeli officials insist that new intelligence, shared with the United States, indicates that Iran was racing to build a nuclear weapon. Their U.S. counterparts are less convinced. In March, Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD told lawmakers that 'Iran is not building a nuclear weapon,' in line with previous assessments shared under the Biden administration. So, which is true? Former U.S. intelligence officials said that two people could be looking at the same intelligence and reach different conclusions as to Iran's intent. 'Unless there is a smoking gun, everything is fragmentary and has to be put together,' said a former senior U.S. intelligence official. The former senior official, like others quoted, was granted anonymity to speak freely about the intelligence analysis process. Assessments also tend to get very technical very fast when talking about Iran's nuclear program. Tehran already has two of the three ingredients needed to deliver a nuclear weapon: missiles that could deliver a devastating nuclear warhead to its target and ample quantities of highly enriched uranium. Gabbard testified in March that Iran has unprecedented levels of enriched uranium for a country that is not a nuclear power. The third component requires advanced scientific and technical know-how to get highly enriched uranium to explode and create a sustained nuclear reaction. What Iran is capable of and looking to do in this arena is where much of the debate plays out. It's also the part of the process that's fiendishly difficult for foreign intelligence agencies to keep tabs on, as it can be masked as scientific research. 'The nightmare scenario for the last decade is that Iran makes us think that they have stopped work on the weaponization piece, and have found a way to do that completely clandestinely,' said a second former senior intelligence official. Intelligence analysis is an art, not a science. While Gabbard's topline assessment from March still stands, there is plenty of debate within America's spy agencies about Iran's intentions, a person familiar with the matter told NatSec Daily. Some parts of the intelligence community, the White House and Capitol Hill believe it's a matter of semantics, the person said, noting that Iran has all of the key components for a nuclear weapons program, even if it has not been formally described as such. That debate played out in the open on Tuesday when President DONALD TRUMP dismissed Gabbard's remarks in March. 'I don't care what she said,' Trump said. 'I think they were very close to having a weapon.' 'There's a tug of war going on over in the White House,' Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Eric on Tuesday afternoon. Trump is hearing from both supporters and opponents of military intervention, Kaine argued, 'and that explains why his own comments tend to go back and forth.' For now, Washington is waiting for Trump to decide what to do with all the information presented to him, including whether to strike Iran. The president told reporters today, 'I may do it. I may not do it.' 'Nobody knows what I'm going to do,' he said. The Inbox HYPERSONIC SHOW: Iran launched hypersonic missiles at Israel today, the first time the high-power weapon has been used in the most recent volley of airstrikes between the two countries. Amid the escalation, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem announced it is organizing evacuations of American citizens, Eric reports. WONG'S NEXT MOVE: Former deputy national security adviser ALEX WONG is expected to join the President's Intelligence Advisory Board, two people familiar with the move told our own John Sakellariadis. The move indicates that Wong — who was ousted from his National Security Council role last month amid the fallout over top officials using the messaging app Signal to discuss military strikes in Yemen — still maintains close ties to the Trump administration. While low-profile, the PIAB has previously weighed in on hot-button intelligence policy topics, like the reauthorization of a key foreign spy power under JOE BIDEN. It is currently headed by former Republican Rep. DEVIN NUNES, along with other close Trump allies. A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on Wong's potential move. THE MARSHAL MEETS TRUMP: Pakistani Army chief ASIM MUNIR had lunch with Trump at the White House today — a rare occurrence that suggests the Trump administration is looking to mend fences with Islamabad. The president opting to meet with any foreign military leader is rare, let alone a foreign military leader who is not currently the head of government or head of state of a U.S. ally. Pakistan's ties with Washington have also waned in recent years as the United States has pursued greater cooperation with India as a way to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, the timing of the lunch is auspicious. Pakistan, which borders Iran, would be a critical player in any broader conflict with Iran as a potential entrepot for supplies and weapons for either side. And Pakistan's growing ties with China have led some Iran watchers to warn that Beijing could use Pakistan's territory as a way to funnel resources to Tehran in the event of a longer-term conflict with the United States and Israel. KELLOGG'S MINSK MISSION: While the administration is mostly focusing on the Middle East these days, Ukraine special envoy KEITH KELLOGG is meeting with Belarusian President ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO, our own Felicia Schwartz reports. The overture to the leader of Russia's satellite state is surprising. But it signals the administration's desire to keep lines open with Moscow. Reuters' Gram Slattery and Humeyra Pamuk were the first to report on the planned meeting. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes TAKES A SIDE: A Chinese government-linked influence effort online is working to spread the narrative that Iran is the dominant force in the conflict between Tehran and Israel, according to a new report from social network analysis company Graphika. As our own Maggie Miller writes in, Graphika researchers found that influence groups online tied to the Chinese government began almost immediately posting content on Western and Chinese social media platforms after the Israeli attack on Iran last week, promoting narratives on Iran winning the war. These include promoting an artificial intelligence-generated video on X that gives evidence of a successful destructive missile attack on Israel, and Chinese state-linked media posting reports that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU had fled to Greece during the strikes. Cyberattacks are also an increasing concern as the conflict continues, and U.S. critical infrastructure owners and operators are on high alert for a surge in Iranian-linked retaliatory attacks, as Maggie reported late Tuesday night. The Complex GRILLING HEGSETH: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH faced tough questions from both Republican and Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee today about U.S. military plans for conflict with Iran, the deployment of the U.S. military to Los Angeles amid protests and the Pentagon's budget request. Testifying alongside Joint Chiefs Chair DAN CAINE, the Pentagon chief declined to comment on conversations within the administration about striking Iran. Hegseth also defended the military's deployment to Los Angeles and blasted appeals courts' efforts to limit 'national security policy.' He also faced questions from Sen. Tim Kaine about the renaming of several military bases that previously honored Confederate generals. Republicans weren't keen to give the Pentagon chief too many lifelines during the hearing. Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) took Hegseth to task for the Pentagon's budget request, saying it 'leads me to question whether some officials in the administration plan to ignore congressional intent.' Related: Hegseth defers to general on Pentagon's plans for Iran by our own Jack Detsch and Paul McLeary FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AUKUS ENHANCEMENTS EFFORTS: Lawmakers are looking to help Australia and the U.K. avoid defense manufacturing restrictions as part of the AUKUS pact. Sens. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.) and Kaine introduced the AUKUS Improvement Act today, which would exempt the administration from needing to tell Congress about overseas manufacturing if it involves Australia and the U.K. The bill also lifts a requirement that the State Department grant Third Party Transfer approval for any foreign military sales to State Department-vetted entities that have been approved as AUKUS Authorized Users. The bill has a good chance of becoming law. AUKUS enjoys widespread bipartisan support and the administration reaffirmed its commitment to the pact to build submarines with the two U.S. allies after meeting with British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER at the G7 summit this week. Related: EU and Australia to negotiate security and defense partnership by our colleague Giorgio Leali On the Hill FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — KILLING CAESAR (ACT): Two lawmakers are teaming up to sink a law that helped isolate the regime of former Syrian dictator BASHAR ASSAD to encourage the new government in Damascus to join its camp. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) introduced a bill today that would repeal the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposed economic sanctions on Syria. Their bill would remove broad-based sanctions, while preserving some of the provisions in U.S. law that would allow Washington to hold Syrian officials accountable for future human rights abuses. Shaheen told NatSec Daily that 'we can keep the new Syrian authorities accountable without decimating the economy' and praised Trump's special envoy to Syria, Ambassador TOM BARRACK, for using diplomacy to yield 'tremendous results.' 'We must do everything we can to support the Syrian people's aspirations for democracy, stability and security,' she said. The bill is likely to pass, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pushed the Trump administration in recent months to relax sanctions against Damascus and encouraged the White House's outreach towards Syria's new leader AHMED AL-SHARAA. Broadsides CARLSON CHEWS OUT CRUZ: Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), one of the leading GOP advocates for a military intervention against Iran's nuclear program, sat down with conservative commentator TUCKER CARLSON for an interview. And Cruz didn't pass Carlson's pop quiz about Iran. As our own Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing reports, Carlson launched a softball at Cruz, asking how many people live in Iran. Cruz didn't know the answer and Carlson took him to task about it: 'You don't know the population of the country you seek to topple? How could you not know that?' When Cruz shot back that he doesn't 'sit around memorizing population tables,' Carlson got frustrated and proceeded to ask him more specific questions about Iran's demographics. 'You don't know anything about Iran,' Carlson said, as the two men began yelling over each other. 'You're a senator who is calling for the overthrow of the government and you don't know anything about the country!' The fiery exchange underscores the deep divisions within the Republican Party over the Trump administration's moves in Iran. Transitions — The president is tapping Adm. DARYL 'HONEY BADGER' CAUDLE to be the next chief naval officer. Caudle, a career submariner, is currently the commander of U.S. Fleet Forces. He was seen as a leading contender to replace Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI, whom Trump removed from her post earlier this year. The president also nominated Marine Gen. CHRISTOPHER MAHONEY, the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, to be Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs. Both will face Senate confirmation before the Armed Services Committee. — Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK announced today she's running for Congress as a Democrat in Michigan's Seventh Congressional District. She'll be looking to unseat Rep. TOM BARRETT (R-Mich.) in what's expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive House races of the 2026 cycle. — Career U.S. intelligence official ADAM JONES is now the National Security Council's senior director for intelligence, three people familiar with the personnel move told John. Jones will fill an influential White House post previously held by BRIAN WALSH, who was ousted this April after Trump's Oval Office meeting with right-wing activist LAURA LOOMER. Jones joined the NSC in recent weeks, according to the three people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters. A White House spokesperson declined to comment. — TODD BENSMAN is now a senior adviser to border czar TOM HOMAN. He most recently was a senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies. What to Read — Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil, POLITICO: State Department unveils social media screening rules for all student visa applicants — Richard Nephew, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won't make the Iranian nuclear threat go away — Afshon Ostovar, Foreign Affairs: How Iran Lost Friday Today — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Iran-Israel War: Update on the Israeli Campaign, Iranian Nuclear Program and the Civilian Toll — Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Addressing China's Growing Influence in Colombia — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Getting Started: The New Lee Jae-myung Government — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: The Bigger Picture in the Iran-Israel Conflict: Russia, Missiles, Militias, and More Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who should not be named to the President's Intelligence Advisory Board.
Politico
16-06-2025
- Business
- Politico
Retail stores are getting hit hard by cyberattacks
With help from Maggie Miller and John Sakellariadis Driving the day — Cyberattacks against retailers around the world are on the rise, leaving some store shelves empty and customer data at risk. HAPPY MONDAY, and welcome to MORNING CYBERSECURITY! To beat the gloomy weather this weekend, the Nickel household binged the 'Hunger Games' movies. I'm already excited for the next movie. Follow POLITICO's cybersecurity team on X at @RosiePerper, @johnnysaks130, @delizanickel and @magmill95, or reach out via email or text for tips. You can also follow @POLITICOPro on X. Editor's Note: Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. Today's Agenda The Senate Intelligence Committee holds a closed briefing on 'intelligence matters.' 4 p.m. Happening This Week On Tuesday — The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing on 'Protecting Older Americans from Transnational Crime Networks.' 10:15 a.m. The Senate Appropriations Committee's Defense Subcommittee holds a closed hearing on proposed budget estimates for the intelligence community for fiscal year 2026. 10:30 a.m. On Wednesday — The Senate Intelligence Committee holds a closed hearing on 'intelligence matters.' 2:30 p.m. Industry Intel OUT OF STOCK — A recent spike of cyberattacks against major retailers in the U.S. and abroad is stoking fears that these breaches could seriously disrupt services and lead to less access to necessities like food or clothing. Last week, United Natural Foods Inc., one of the country's top food distributors and one of Whole Foods' largest partners, experienced a major cyberattack. In a filing with the SEC, the company stated that the attack affected its 'ability to fulfill and distribute customer orders,' leaving some store shelves temporarily barren. This attack on UNFI is just the latest in a string of attacks against the retail sector. Last week, Victoria's Secret announced that it had restored all of its systems after a cyberattack in May forced the company to pause online orders and temporarily take its website down. The North Face announced a breach earlier this month that had compromised thousands of customer accounts. In the U.K., retailer Marks & Spencer was hit with a cyberattack in May that hindered online shopping, and a cyberattack on grocery store chain Co-op led to empty shelves in some locations. — Operating with 'impunity': Retailers are prime targets for hackers due to the trove of valuable personal and financial data collected on customers. 'Retailers collect and store vast amounts of valuable personal and financial data, such as credit card numbers, payment details, home addresses and phone numbers,' said Fletcher Davis, senior security research manager at cybersecurity firm BeyondTrust. 'One breach can often yield a large amount of records that can be sold on dark web markets.' And similar to hackers targeting other areas like health care and education, these retail attacks are often carried out by ransomware gangs seeking a payout. 'Most cybergangs are geographically distributed and located in countries that have no reciprocal law enforcement agreements or cooperation with the United States,' said Darren Williams, founder and CEO of cybersecurity firm BlackFog, adding that the hacking groups are primarily linked to Russia and China. Bob Kolasky, senior vice president of critical infrastructure at cybersecurity firm Exiger, who previously served as the founding director of CISA's National Risk Management Center, told your host that the U.S. previously put pressure on nations that enabled ransomware activity, like Russia, to crack down on attacks from ransomware gangs — though it's unlikely they heeded the warnings. 'If you look at overall trends, it's really hard to see any evidence that these countries that we might consider adversarial have clamped down on ransomware activity,' Kolasky said. 'There's still a way too fertile ecosystem of ransomware actors who operate with some level of impunity.' — Real-world consequences: As these attacks grow more frequent, customers may notice more products missing from shelves and online ordering systems remaining down for weeks at a time. Williams told your host of the UNFI cyberattack that 'these kinds of incidents can disrupt critical logistics and jeopardize timely food access for millions.' These attacks can also leave customers' personal data exposed for future exploitation. James Turgal, vice president of global cyber risk, strategy and board relations at cybersecurity firm Optiv, told your host that the data collected by retailers can be attractive for nation-state threat actors to build 'comprehensive dossiers on U.S. citizens.' 'While retail data may not seem sensitive in isolation, in the hands of sophisticated threat actors, especially nation-states, it can become a powerful tool for intelligence, influence and cyberattack planning,' Turgal added. At the Agencies DATA-SHARING — The Department of Homeland Security now has access to personal data on millions of Medicaid enrollees, including their immigration status, as the Trump administration continues to ramp up deportations. The Associated Press reported on Saturday that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid gave DHS access to data on people living in Washington, D.C., Illinois, Washington state and California — all places that allow non-U.S. citizens to enroll in Medicaid programs. — The big picture: The push is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to provide DHS with data on immigrants. In April, the IRS agreed to share confidential taxpayer information — some of the most closely guarded data in the federal government — with DHS. As part of the agreement, immigration authorities can ask the IRS for information on undocumented immigrants, including their home addresses. The International Scene UNDER THE SEA — As China and Russia step up sabotage operations targeting undersea cables, a new report from the China Strategic Risks Institute found that the United Kingdom is unprepared to combat the growing threat. The report, out on Sunday, examined 12 incidents between January 2021 and April 2025 where U.K. authorities investigated alleged undersea cable sabotage. The majority of cases analyzed in the report found that Russia or China was directly linked to the alleged sabotage operations. The report also identified patterns that suggested possible coordination between China and Russia on undersea cable attacks — including Russian vessels in suspicious incidents near Taiwan and Chinese vessels in the Baltic Sea. — International data hub: Undersea cables are a big target for rival powers like China or Russia due to the massive amounts of data they carry. Around 99 percent of all data that moves around the world is transferred through undersea cables. The report identified the U.K. as a key hub in the Euro-Atlantic cable infrastructure, making it a likely target for future operations from Moscow or Beijing. AIRLINE ATTACK — Canada's second-largest airline is investigating a cyberattack that disrupted access to internal systems. WestJet said in a security alert on Friday that the airline is 'aware of a cybersecurity incident involving internal systems and the WestJet app, which has restricted access for several users.' The airline also said specialized internal teams are working with Transport Canada and law enforcement to investigate the breach and manage the impact. On Saturday, the airline issued an update that its operations 'remain safe and unaffected while we work towards resolving the situation.' Industry Intel STRENGTHENING POSTURE — As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, cyber groups are urging U.S. businesses to prepare for the potential of increased cyberattacks from Iran. The Food and Agriculture Information Sharing and Analysis Center (Ag-ISAC) and the Information Technology Information Sharing and Analysis Center (IT-ISAC) issued a joint statement on Friday highlighting that Iranian state-sponsored hackers have previously targeted U.S. organizations in cyberspace during periods of heightened conflict. 'Even attacks not directly targeting the U.S. could have indirect effects and cause disruptions to companies in the U.S.,' the ISACs warned. 'Given the interconnectedness of networks, it is possible that cyber attacks targeting Israel itself could cause collateral damage to U.S. companies, even if the U.S. companies themselves are not the intended target.' Quick Bytes GENETIC DATA — As lawmakers sound the alarm over the fate of millions of Americans' genetic data in the wake of 23andMe's bankruptcy proceedings, TechCrunch's Aisha Malik breaks down how users can delete their data on the app. CYBERATTACKS CLIMB — Cybersecurity firm Radware reports that Israel's government websites, telecommunications firms and financial institutions are experiencing a spike in cyberattacks since the strike on Iran, The Jerusalem Post reports. Chat soon. Stay in touch with the whole team: Rosie Perper (rperper@ John Sakellariadis (jsakellariadis@ Maggie Miller (mmiller@ and Dana Nickel (dnickel@
