Markets in wait-and-watch mode amid global crosswinds: Punita Kumar Sinha
Markets are stable due to the RBI cut and benign macro conditions. Global events like US-China trade talks and internal US economic softening are key factors. India faces mixed economic data, with positives like rate cuts and good monsoons balanced by concerns about valuations and geopolitics. Market momentum exists, but choppiness is expected. Valuations are neutral to high.
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"People are taking a relook at markets given the RBI cut. So, for the moment things seem to be fairly stable and macro conditions are benign. But one never knows given the global situation what could come next," says Punita Kumar Sinha , Pacific Paradigm Advisors.Well, first of all, India stands in a good place because we have the least amount of risk compared to some of the other countries amongst the large economies, especially being on President Trump's radar for tariffs and some other issues, immigration, etc.So, I mean, the data is mixed. There are positives and then there are negatives. So, the positives, we are beginning to see for India is that obviously rate cuts and plenty of liquidity has been injected by the RBI, the monsoons are good which will help the rural economy, the trade talks are sort of not looking that harsh for India at the moment or at least it is not on the radar as much as some other countries, and the geopolitical situation seems to have calmed down, so that is on the positive front.On the negative side, economic data is still mixed. The economy still needs to show sign of further strengthening. The RBI rate cuts now mean that potentially since the stance is now neutral, that there may not be any further cuts or further liquidity injections for the remainder of the year and then, another negative is that geopolitics could become an issue again and the trade discussions could again come into the forefront for India as well. And the other negative is that valuations are now, after the markets have rallied the valuations are not that great once again.So, it is kind of a balance between the positives and negatives. And given that, the markets could be choppy, rangebound, but we could have some good months and maybe not so good months depending on data and news flow. So, I think the momentum is there right now. People are taking a relook at markets given the RBI cut. So, for the moment things seem to be fairly stable and macro conditions are benign. But one never knows given the global situation what could come next.Well, it is in no one's interest to have an adverse outcome. So, I am hopeful that there will be some negotiation that will be positive for both, otherwise the outcome could be negative and the markets are not pricing in a big negative outcome. The markets are pricing in a neutral to positive outcome, which is why the markets are being strong across the board, whether it is US, whether it is Chinese markets, Asian markets, emerging markets . So, I think that is the risk as well that the markets are not pricing in a bad scenario.No, I mean I think they are still on the high side because the markets have rallied but, of course, India has underperformed some of the other emerging markets, particularly Latin America and some of the other Asian countries and also India has underperformed Europe. So, relative valuations compared to some of these other markets has improved. But if you look at versus its own history, Indian market valuations are not cheap and we are still trading over 20 times multiples and while growth would start picking up particularly on the rural side with the rate cuts and a better monsoon, so there could be some better numbers coming on the denominator, but I still do not think that the valuations are that attractive relative to its own history, they are not cheap, I mean they are neutral to high.
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