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Lumentum Announces Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Lumentum Announces Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Lumentum Holdings Inc. ('Lumentum' or the 'Company') today reported results for its fiscal second quarter ended December 28, 2024.
'In the second quarter, we exceeded the high end of our guidance ranges for both revenue and earnings per share, driven by strong demand in the cloud end market. This is an exciting time for Lumentum as we position ourselves to capitalize on expanding cloud opportunities and the recovery of the broader networking market. Our foundational technologies enable us to win in these markets,' said Alan Lowe, President and CEO. 'With our strong market position and improving industry trends, we remain confident in achieving our previously stated goal of reaching $500 million in quarterly revenue by the end of calendar year 2025.'
'On a personal note, serving as Lumentum's President and CEO over the last decade has been the highlight of my career, and I am deeply grateful to our talented team for their dedication. I look forward to continuing my role on the Lumentum Board and serving as an advisor to ensure a smooth transition to Michael Hurlston,' concluded Mr. Lowe.
Fiscal Second Quarter Highlights:
Net revenue for the fiscal second quarter of 2025 was $402.2 million, with GAAP net loss of $60.9 million, or $0.88 per diluted share. Net revenue for the fiscal first quarter of 2025 was $336.9 million, with GAAP net loss of $82.4 million, or $1.21 per diluted share. Net revenue for the fiscal second quarter of 2024 was $366.8 million, with GAAP net loss of $99.1 million, or $1.47 per diluted share.
Non-GAAP net income for the fiscal second quarter of 2025 was $30.0 million, or $0.42 per diluted share. Non-GAAP net income for the fiscal first quarter of 2025 was $12.2 million, or $0.18 per diluted share . Non-GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2024 was $16.4 million, or $0.24 per diluted share (1).
The Company held $896.7 million in total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of the fiscal second quarter of 2025, down $19.4 million from the end of the fiscal first quarter of 2025.
Financial Overview – Fiscal Second Quarter Ended December 28, 2024
GAAP Results ($ in millions)
Q2
Q1
Q2
Change
FY 2025
FY 2025
FY 2024
Q/Q
Y/Y
Net revenue
$
402.2
$
336.9
$
366.8
19.4%
9.7%
GAAP gross margin
24.8
%
23.1
%
17.4
%
170 bps
740 bps
GAAP operating loss
(12.8
)%
(24.5
)%
(28.7
)%
1,170 bps
1,590 bps
Non-GAAP Results ($ in millions)
Q2
Q1
Q2
Change
FY 2025
FY 2025
FY 2024 (1)
Q/Q
Y/Y
Net revenue
$
402.2
$
336.9
$
366.8
19.4%
9.7%
Non-GAAP gross margin
32.3
%
32.8
%
31.4
%
(50) bps
90 bps
Non-GAAP operating margin
7.9
%
3.0
%
1.9
%
490 bps
600 bps
Net Revenue by Segment ($ in millions)
Q2
% of
Q1
Q2
Change
FY 2025
Net Revenue
FY 2025
FY 2024
Q/Q
Y/Y
Cloud & Networking
$
339.2
84.3
%
$
282.3
$
286.7
20.2
%
18.3
%
Industrial Tech
63.0
15.7
%
54.6
80.1
15.4
%
(21.3
)%
Total
$
402.2
100.0
%
$
336.9
$
366.8
19.4
%
9.7
%
(1) During the first fiscal quarter of 2025, the Company refined its methodology to report non-GAAP measures. The change does not impact the Company's financial position, cash flows, or GAAP consolidated results of operations. Prior period non-GAAP financial measures presented in this press release have been recast to conform to the current presentation.
The tables above provide comparisons of quarterly results to prior periods, including sequential quarterly and year-over-year changes. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures is contained in this release under the section titled 'Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures.'
Business Outlook
Lumentum expects the following for the fiscal third quarter 2025:
Net revenue in the range of $410 million to $425 million
Non-GAAP operating margin of 9.5% to 10.5%
Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.47 to $0.53
We have not provided reconciliations from GAAP to non-GAAP measures or the equivalent GAAP measure for non-GAAP measures in our outlook, as they cannot be provided without unreasonable effort. A large portion of non-GAAP adjustments, such as restructuring charges, stock-based compensation, non-GAAP income tax reconciling adjustments, acquisition related costs, and other costs and contingencies unrelated to current and future operations are by their nature highly volatile and we have low visibility as to the range that may be incurred in the future.
Related Announcement and Conference Call
Lumentum will host a conference call today, February 6, 2025, at 2:00 pm PT / 5:00 pm ET to discuss its fiscal second quarter results. A live webcast of the call will be available in the Investors section of the Lumentum website at http://investor.lumentum.com. To listen to the live conference call, dial (833) 470-1428 or (404) 975-4839 and reference the conference ID 360050. Supporting materials outlining the Company's latest financial results will be posted on http://investor.lumentum.com under the 'Events and Presentations' section concurrently with this earnings press release. Lumentum has used, and intends to continue to use, its Investor Relations website as means of disclosing material nonpublic information and for complying with its disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. This press release is being furnished as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and will be available at http://www.sec.gov/.
About Lumentum
Lumentum (NASDAQ: LITE) is a market-leading designer and manufacturer of innovative optical and photonic products enabling optical networking and laser applications worldwide. Lumentum optical components and subsystems are part of virtually every type of telecom, enterprise, and data center network. Lumentum lasers enable advanced manufacturing techniques and diverse applications including next-generation imaging and sensing capabilities. Lumentum is headquartered in San Jose, California with R&D, manufacturing, and sales offices worldwide. For more information, visit www.lumentum.com and follow Lumentum on LinkedIn, X (formerly known as Twitter), Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These include statements regarding our belief and expectations with respect to our markets, including the cloud end market and the broader networking market, customers and industry, any anticipation or guidance as to demand for our products and technology from our customers, statements regarding our quarterly revenue goal, and our guidance with respect to future net revenue, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share, and non-GAAP operating margins, and related assumptions. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contemplated are: (a) uncertainty and volatility in the global markets, including uncertainty and volatility in the macroeconomic environment, volatility and uncertainty in banking and financial services sectors, inflationary pressures, changes in the political or economic environment, such as geopolitical conflicts, war, trade and export restrictions and the imposition of tariffs or other duties, and the effect of such market disruptions on demand for our products, technology spending by our customers and our ability to obtain components for our products; (b) quarter-over-quarter product mix fluctuations, which can materially impact profitability measures due to the broad gross margin ranges across our portfolio; (c) decline of average selling prices across our businesses or increase in costs, either of which will also decrease our margins; (d) effects of seasonality; (e) the ability of our suppliers and contract manufacturers to meet production, quality, and delivery requirements for our forecasted demand; (f) changes in customer demand, including due to changes in inventory practices and end-customer demand; (g) our ability to attract and retain new customers, particularly in the cloud photonics and imaging and sensing markets; (h) the risk that our markets will not grow or develop as expected or that our strategies and ability to compete in those markets are not successful, (i) the risk that Lumentum's financing or operating strategies will not be successful; and (j) failure to successfully integrate Cloud Light into our business or that we will not achieve the expected benefits. For more information on these and other risks, please refer to the 'Risk Factors' section included in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 29, 2024 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the 'SEC) and the Company's other filings with the SEC, including the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended December 28, 2024 to be filed with the SEC. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and the Company assumes no obligation to update such statements, except as required by applicable law.
The following financial tables are presented in accordance with GAAP, unless otherwise specified.
LUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(in millions, except per share data)
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
December 28, 2024
December 30, 2023
December 28, 2024
December 30, 2023
Net revenue
$
402.2
$
366.8
$
739.1
$
684.4
Cost of sales
281.2
281.3
517.7
504.2
Amortization of acquired developed intangibles
21.4
21.5
43.9
39.5
Gross profit
99.6
64.0
177.5
140.7
Operating expenses:
Research and development
74.2
78.3
148.5
151.8
Selling, general and administrative
76.3
85.1
152.6
158.1
Restructuring and related charges
0.7
5.8
10.4
16.8
Total operating expenses
151.2
169.2
311.5
326.7
Loss from operations
(51.6
)
(105.2
)
(134.0
)
(186.0
)
Interest expense
(5.6
)
(9.7
)
(11.1
)
(19.4
)
Other income, net
14.9
13.4
23.6
34.6
Loss before income taxes
(42.3
)
(101.5
)
(121.5
)
(170.8
)
Income tax provision (benefit)
18.6
(2.4
)
21.8
(3.8
)
Net loss
$
(60.9
)
$
(99.1
)
$
(143.3
)
$
(167.0
)
Net loss per share:
Basic
$
(0.88
)
$
(1.47
)
$
(2.09
)
$
(2.49
)
Diluted
$
(0.88
)
$
(1.47
)
$
(2.09
)
$
(2.49
)
Shares used to compute net loss per share:
Basic
68.9
67.2
68.6
67.0
Diluted
68.9
67.2
68.6
67.0
LUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(in millions, except per share data)
(unaudited)
December 28, 2024
June 29, 2024
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
479.7
$
436.7
Short-term investments
417.0
450.3
Accounts receivable, net
226.9
194.7
Inventories
402.3
398.4
Prepayments and other current assets
125.5
110.0
Total current assets
1,651.4
1,590.1
Property, plant and equipment, net
663.4
572.5
Operating lease right-of-use assets, net
32.9
72.8
Goodwill
1,060.9
1,055.8
Other intangible assets, net
534.9
617.5
Deferred tax asset
11.0
10.7
Other non-current assets
11.6
12.5
Total assets
$
3,966.1
$
3,931.9
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
184.7
$
126.3
Accrued payroll and related expenses
40.1
36.1
Accrued expenses
46.2
52.4
Current portion of long-term debt
9.8

Operating lease liabilities, current
11.2
13.4
Other current liabilities
54.9
41.1
Total current liabilities
346.9
269.3
Long-term debt
2,561.2
2,503.2
Operating lease liabilities, non-current
26.1
43.0
Deferred tax liability
45.4
55.7
Other non-current liabilities
114.2
103.4
Total liabilities
3,093.8
2,974.6
Stockholders' equity:
Common stock, $0.001 par value, 990 authorized shares, 69.1 and 67.9 shares issued and outstanding as of December 28, 2024 and June 29, 2024, respectively
0.1
0.1
Additional paid-in capital
1,892.4
1,835.0
Accumulated deficit
(1,030.4
)
(887.1
)
Accumulated other comprehensive income
10.2
9.3
Total stockholders' equity
872.3
957.3
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
$
3,966.1
$
3,931.9
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In this press release, Lumentum provides investors with certain non-GAAP financial measures: gross profit, gross margin, research and development expense, selling, general and administrative expense, operating margin, income from operations, interest and other income (expense), net, income before income taxes, provision for income taxes, net income (loss), and net income (loss) per share on a non-GAAP basis, as well as the non-GAAP measures of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA. Lumentum believes this non-GAAP financial information provides additional insight into the Company's on-going business operations and results, and has therefore chosen to provide this information to investors for a more consistent basis of comparison and to help them evaluate the results of the Company's on-going operations and enable more meaningful period to period comparisons. In addition, the Company believes that providing certain of these measures allows investors to better understand the Company's operating performance and importantly, to evaluate the methodology and information used by management to monitor, manage, evaluate and measure the Company's business and results of operations. However, these measures may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies, limiting their usefulness for comparison purposes. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this press release should not be considered in isolation from measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Investors are cautioned that there are material limitations associated with the use of non-GAAP financial measures as an analytical tool. In particular, many of the adjustments to our GAAP financial measures reflect the exclusion of items that are recurring and will be reflected in our financial results for the foreseeable future. Further, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measurements reported by other companies.
Our non-GAAP measures used in this press release exclude (i) stock-based compensation, (ii) acquisition related costs, (iii) amortization of acquired intangibles, (iv) amortization of acquired inventory fair value, (v) restructuring and related charges, (vi) foreign exchange (gains) losses, net, (vii) non-cash interest expense on convertible notes, (viii) intangible assets write-off, (ix) integration related costs, (x) non-GAAP income tax reconciling adjustments, and (xi) other charges or income related to non-recurring activities.
We utilize a long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate to compute our non-GAAP income tax provision. The long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate is based on a multi-year projection of our estimated annual GAAP income tax forecast, adjusted to account for the tax effect of non-GAAP pretax adjustments as well as the effects of significant non-recurring and period specific tax items. Our non-GAAP tax provision for fiscal 2025 is 16.5%. The difference between our GAAP income tax provision and our non-GAAP income tax provision is presented as non-GAAP income tax reconciling adjustments.
A quantitative reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP financial data with respect to historical periods is included in the supplemental financial table attached to this press release.
LUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC.
RECONCILIATION OF GAAP MEASURES TO NON-GAAP MEASURES
(in millions, except per share data)
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
December 28,
2024
September 28,
2024
December 30,
2023 (1)
December 28,
2024
December 30,
2023 (1)
Gross profit on GAAP basis
$
99.6
$
77.9
$
64.0
$
177.5
$
140.7
Stock-based compensation
9.2
9.7
9.0
18.9
15.0
Amortization of acquired intangibles
21.4
22.5
21.5
43.9
39.5
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments


3.4

3.4
Integration related costs
1.1
1.2
8.3
2.3
11.6
Other charges (income), net
(1.3
)
(0.9
)
8.9
(2.2
)
9.2
Gross profit on non-GAAP basis
$
130.0
$
110.4
$
115.1
$
240.4
$
219.4
Gross margin on non-GAAP basis
32.3
%
32.8
%
31.4
%
32.5
%
32.1
%
Research and development on GAAP basis
$
74.2
$
74.3
$
78.3
$
148.5
151.8
Stock-based compensation
(11.4
)
(9.3
)
(10.0
)
(20.7
)
(20.3
)
Amortization of acquired intangibles
(0.4
)
(0.4
)
(0.4
)
(0.8
)
(0.7
)
Acquisition related costs


(0.1
)

(0.4
)
Integration related costs


0.7

0.3
Intangible asset write-off

(1.9
)

(1.9
)

Other income (charges), net


(0.1
)

(0.8
)
Research and development on non-GAAP basis
$
62.4
$
62.7
$
68.4
$
125.1
$
129.9
Selling, general and administrative on GAAP basis
$
76.3
$
76.3
$
85.1
$
152.6
$
158.1
Stock-based compensation
(18.2
)
(16.6
)
(15.6
)
(34.8
)
(31.4
)
Amortization of acquired intangibles
(17.2
)
(18.8
)
(15.7
)
(36.0
)
(26.4
)
Acquisition related costs


(8.9
)

(12.6
)
Integration related costs
(2.0
)
(2.2
)
(1.6
)
(4.2
)
(3.9
)
Other (charges) income, net
(3.0
)
(1.0
)
(3.5
)
(4.0
)
(3.2
)
Selling, general and administrative on non-GAAP basis
$
35.9
$
37.7
$
39.8
$
73.6
$
80.6
Loss from operations on GAAP basis
$
(51.6
)
$
(82.4
)
$
(105.2
)
$
(134.0
)
$
(186.0
)
Stock-based compensation
38.8
35.6
34.6
74.4
66.7
Amortization of acquired intangibles
39.0
41.7
37.6
80.7
66.6
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments


3.4

3.4
Acquisition related costs


9.0

13.0
Integration related costs
3.1
3.4
9.2
6.5
15.2
Restructuring and related charges
0.7
9.7
5.8
10.4
16.8
Intangible asset write-off

1.9

1.9

Other charges, net
1.7
0.1
12.5
1.8
13.2
Income from operations on non-GAAP basis
$
31.7
$
10.0
$
6.9
$
41.7
$
8.9
Operating margin on non-GAAP basis
7.9
%
3.0
%
1.9
%
5.6
%
1.3
%
Interest and other income, net on GAAP basis
$
9.3
$
3.2
$
3.7
$
12.5
$
15.2
Foreign exchange (gains) losses, net
(5.9
)
0.7
3.8
(5.2
)
4.2
Non-cash interest expense on convertible notes and other income and expenses, net
0.8
0.7
4.8
1.5
9.7
Interest and other income, net on non-GAAP basis
$
4.2
$
4.6
$
12.3
$
8.8
$
29.1
Loss before income taxes on GAAP basis
$
(42.3
)
$
(79.2
)
$
(101.5
)
$
(121.5
)
$
(170.8
)
Stock-based compensation
38.8
35.6
34.6
74.4
66.7
Acquisition related costs


9.0

13.0
Integration related costs
3.1
3.4
9.2
6.5
15.2
Amortization of acquired intangibles
39.0
41.7
37.6
80.7
66.6
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments


3.4

3.4
Restructuring and related charges
0.7
9.7
5.8
10.4
16.8
Intangible asset write-off

1.9

1.9

Foreign exchange (gains) losses, net
(5.9
)
0.7
3.8
(5.2
)
4.2
Non-cash interest expense on convertible notes and other income and expenses, net
0.8
0.7
4.8
1.5
9.7
Other charges, net
1.7
0.1
12.5
1.8
13.2
Income before income taxes on non-GAAP basis
$
35.9
$
14.6
$
19.2
$
50.5
$
38.0
Income tax provision (benefit) on GAAP basis
$
18.6
$
3.2
$
(2.4
)
$
21.8
$
(3.8
)
Non-GAAP income tax reconciling adjustments
(12.7
)
(0.8
)
5.2
(13.5
)
9.3
Income tax provision on non-GAAP basis
$
5.9
$
2.4
$
2.8
$
8.3
$
5.5
Net loss on GAAP basis
$
(60.9
)
$
(82.4
)
$
(99.1
)
$
(143.3
)
$
(167.0
)
Stock-based compensation
38.8
35.6
34.6
74.4
66.7
Acquisition related costs


9.0

13.0
Integration related costs
3.1
3.4
9.2
6.5
15.2
Amortization of acquired intangibles
39.0
41.7
37.6
80.7
66.6
Amortization of acquired inventory fair value adjustments


3.4

3.4
Restructuring and related charges
0.7
9.7
5.8
10.4
16.8
Intangible asset write-off

1.9

1.9

Foreign exchange (gains) losses, net
(5.9
)
0.7
3.8
(5.2
)
4.2
Non-cash interest expense on convertible notes and other income and expenses, net
0.8
0.7
4.8
1.5
9.7
Non-GAAP income tax reconciling adjustments
12.7
0.8
(5.2
)
13.5
(9.3
)
Other charges, net
1.7
0.1
12.5
1.8
13.2
Net income on non-GAAP basis
$
30.0
$
12.2
$
16.4
$
42.2
$
32.5
Net income per share on non-GAAP basis
$
0.42
$
0.18
$
0.24
$
0.60
$
0.48
Shares used in per share calculation - diluted on GAAP basis
68.9
68.3
67.2
68.6
67.0
Non-GAAP adjustment (2)
2.7
0.8
0.2
1.8
0.3
Shares used in per share calculation - diluted on non-GAAP basis
71.6
69.1
67.4
70.4
67.3
(1) During the first fiscal quarter of 2025, the Company refined its methodology to report non-GAAP measures. The change does not impact the Company's financial position, cash flows, or GAAP consolidated results of operations. Prior period non-GAAP financial measures and the associated GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations presented in this press release have been recast to conform to the current presentation.
(2) The adjustment represents the dilutive impact of equity-based compensation awards in accordance with the treasury stock method and dilutive shares from our convertible debt instruments under the if-converted method, which are anti-dilutive for GAAP purposes as we recognized a GAAP net loss.
LUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC.
RECONCILIATION OF GAAP NET INCOME TO ADJUSTED EBITDA
(in millions, except per share data)
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
Six Months Ended
December 28,
2024
September 28,
2024
December 30,
2023 (1)
December 28,
2024
December 30,
2023 (1)
GAAP net loss
$
(60.9
)
$
(82.4
)
$
(99.1
)
$
(143.3
)
$
(167.0
)
Interest and other expense, net
(9.3
)
(3.2
)
(3.7
)
(12.5
)
(15.2
)
Income tax provision (benefit)
18.6
3.2
(2.4
)
21.8
(3.8
)
Depreciation
25.9
27.0
27.2
52.9
55.4
Amortization of acquired intangibles
39.0
41.7
37.6
80.7
66.6
EBITDA
13.3
(13.7
)
(40.4
)
(0.4
)
(64.0
)
Amortization of inventory fair value adjustments


3.4

3.4
Restructuring and related charges
0.7
9.7
5.8
10.4
16.8
Stock-based compensation
38.8
35.6
34.6
74.4
66.7
Acquisition related costs


9.0

13.0
Integration related costs
3.1
3.4
9.2
6.5
15.2
Intangible asset write-off

1.9

1.9

Other charges (gains), net
1.7
0.1
11.3
1.8
7.8
Adjusted EBITDA
$
57.6
$
37.0
$
32.9
$
94.6
$
58.9
(1) During the first fiscal quarter of 2025, the Company refined its methodology to report non-GAAP measures. The change does not impact the Company's financial position, cash flows, or GAAP consolidated results of operations. Prior period non-GAAP financial measures and the associated GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations presented in this press release have been recast to conform to the current presentation.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250206910132/en/
Investors: Kathy Ta, (408) 750-3853; [email protected]: Noël Bilodeau, 408-439-2140; [email protected]
KEYWORD: UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA CALIFORNIA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS INTERNET HARDWARE
SOURCE: Lumentum
Copyright Business Wire 2025.
PUB: 02/06/2025 04:03 PM/DISC: 02/06/2025 04:03 PM
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250206910132/en
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Tips drop as consumer spending stalls
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Tips drop as consumer spending stalls

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JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ:JAKK) shareholders have earned a 30% CAGR over the last five years
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Explore JAKKS Pacific's Fair Values from the Community and select yours It hasn't been the best quarter for JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 19% in that time. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. In fact, the share price is 268% higher today. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today. Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement. During the last half decade, JAKKS Pacific became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image). We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on JAKKS Pacific's earnings, revenue and cash flow. What About Dividends? When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for JAKKS Pacific the TSR over the last 5 years was 276%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence! A Different Perspective While the broader market gained around 19% in the last year, JAKKS Pacific shareholders lost 22% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 30%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand JAKKS Pacific better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - JAKKS Pacific has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of. There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Manufacturers turn to AI to weather tariff storm
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Manufacturers like US lawnmower maker The Toro Company are not panicking at the prospect of US President Donald Trump's global trade tariffs. Despite five years of dramatic supply disruptions, from the COVID pandemic to today's trade wars, Toro is resisting any temptation to stack its warehouses to the rafters. "We are at probably pre-pandemic inventory levels," says its chief supply-chain manager, Kevin Carpenter, looking relaxed in front of a whiteboard at his office in Minneapolis. "I mean 2019. I think everybody will be at a 2019 level." Among US manufacturers, inventories have roller-coasted this year as they rushed to beat Trump's deadlines for tariff hikes, only to see them repeatedly delayed. But since their post-pandemic expansion, inventories have mostly contracted, according to US Institute for Supply Management data. Instead, "just in time" inventory management - which aims to increase efficiency and reduce waste by ordering goods only as they are needed - is back. But how can firms run lean inventories even as tariffs fluctuate, export bans come out of the blue, and conflict rages? One of the answers, they say, is artificial intelligence. Carpenter says he uses AI to digest the daily stream of news that could impact Toro's business, from Trump's latest social media posts to steel prices, into a custom-made podcast that he listens to each morning. His team also uses generative AI to sieve an ocean of data and to suggest when and how many components to buy from whom. It is a boom industry. Spending on software that includes generative AI for supply chains, capable of learning and even performing tasks on its own, could hit $55 billion (R965 billion) by 2029, up from $2.7 billion now, according to US research firm Gartner, driven in part by global uncertainties. Hype "The tool just puts up in front of you: 'I think you can take 100 tonnes of this product from this plant to transfer it to that plant. And you just hit accept if that makes sense (to you)," McKinsey supply chain consultant Matt Jochim said. The biggest providers of overall supply chain software by revenue are Germany's SAP, US firms Oracle, Coupa and Microsoft and Blue Yonder, a unit of Panasonic, according to Gartner. Generative AI is in its infancy, with most firms still piloting it spending modest amounts, industry experts say. Those investments can climb to tens of millions of dollars when deployed at scale, including the use of tools known as AI agents, which make their own decisions and often need costly upgrades to data management and other IT systems, they said. In commenting for this article, SAP, Oracle, Coupa, Microsoft and Blue Yonder described strong growth for generative AI solutions for supply chains without giving numbers. At US supply chain consultancy GEP, which sells AI tools like this, Trump's tariffs are helping to drive demand. 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"I'm still looking forward to the day when AI can predict terrorist attacks that are at sea, for instance." Konecranes' logistics partners are deploying AI on more mundane data, like weather forecasts. The company makes port cranes that are up to 106 metres (348 ft) high when assembled. When shipping them, AI marries weather forecasts with data like bridge heights to optimise the route. "To ship those across oceans, you do have to take into consideration weather," Aila says. Rising costs By keeping inventories low, firms can bolster profit margins that are under pressure from rising costs. Every component or finished product sitting on a shelf is capital tied up, incurring finance and storage costs and at risk of obsolescence. McKinsey has been surveying supply-chain executives since the pandemic. Its most recent survey showed that respondents relying on bigger inventory to cushion disruptions fell to 34% last year from 60% in 2022. Early responses from its upcoming 2025 survey suggest a similar picture, Jochim said. Gartner supply chain analyst Noha Tohamy says that without AI, companies would be slower to react and be more likely to be drawn into building up inventories. "When supply chain organisations don't have that visibility and don't really understand the uncertainty, we go for inventory buffering," Tohamy says. But AI agents won't put supply chain managers out of work, not yet, consultants say. Humans still need to make strategic and big tactical decisions, leaving AI agents to do more routine tasks like ordering and scheduling production maintenance. Toro supply chain chief Carpenter says that without AI, supply chain managers might need to run bigger teams as well. Is he worried that AI is coming for his job one day? "I hope it doesn't take it until my kids get through college!"

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