Rain At Bristol Speedway Classic Was Well-Predicted. So Why Play?

Forbes

4 days ago

Most headlines will read that the Speedway Classic at the historic NASCAR track in Bristol, Tennessee experienced two rain delays, which forced Major League Baseball to postpone the game. It has been announced that the game will resume at 1 pm on Sunday. However, the meteorologist in me, and yes, I actually am one, knew that they would probably not get the game in Saturday night. Weather warning signs and forecasts were clear. Here's a breakdown of why any narrative saying it 'came without warning' or 'there was no time to prepare for rain' is false.
NWS Warned Of Rainfall In The Days And Hours Leading Up To The Game
The MLB.com website stated, 'Following great pomp and pageantry to celebrate the first MLB Speedway Classic, the skies opened above the famous Bristol Motor Speedway and rain delayed the start of the historic contest between the Braves and Reds by two hours and 17 minutes. The game eventually got underway but was suspended with one out in the bottom of the first inning.' The National Weather Service warned of rainfall in the days and hours leading up to the game.
In the NWS Morristown weather discussion on Friday morning, meteorologists wrote, 'On Saturday, an inverted surface trough will be across the TN Valley, which should help convection develop in the afternoon. The surface trough retreats west on Sunday as the ridge strengthens, but rain chances persist with the approach of a shortwave trough and jet streak.' There is a lot of meteorological jargon there, but I will translate it. The surface and upper atmospheric conditions were primed for rainfall Saturday and into Sunday. Persistent cloud cover was draped across much of the Southeast and southern Appalachia on Saturday as a frontal system stretched across the region.
On Saturday morning at 7:55 am, NWS Morristown, the office responsible for the Bristol area, tweeted, 'Rain showers with a few thunderstorms are expected to develop over us today, bringing rainfall and a low risk of flooding. If looking to attend a certain⚾️ game this evening, light showers may be lingering.' In another Tweet Saturday afternoon, NWS also shared a short-range model showing expected rainfall that evening. It was clearly going to be raining in Bristol at 6 pm (map above) and in subsequent hours.
From A Climate Perspective, It Was The Rainiest Time Of The Year In Bristol
Certainly, the meteorological signals were there. From a climate perspective, the State Climate Office website at East Tennessee State University provides good context. While Tennessee receives the greatest amount of precipitation during winter and spring months, the site stated, 'A secondary maximum of precipitation occurs in summer in response to thunderstorm activity. This is especially pronounced in the mountains of the east where July rainfall exceeds the precipitation of any other month.' Early August conditions are likely similar. Bristol is in the Tri-Cities region so based on the data above, I would have advised MLB to schedule this game in April, May, or September. As a reminder to all organizations, there are weather and climate experts whom you can consult on these matters, but I digress.
Motivated Reasoning
As noted earlier, there was a lot of 'pomp and circumstance' surrounding this event. However, as I watched players, fans, and field crews struggle in the rain, my first statement at dinner is, 'This is an epic fail. Why are they trying to play this game?' My wife Ayana is the biggest Braves fan in our home. She added, 'They would never try to play in these conditions in their home stadiums. Someone is going to get hurt.'
Throughout my meteorological career, I have lamented about something called motivated reasoning. It causes people to drive through flooded roadways, finish a round of golf while it is lightning, run a 5K in dangerous heat conditions, or stay put as a major hurricane approaches. What is motivated reasoning? It is process by which people or organizations consume information from a biased lens or ignore it altogether because there is a needed outcome. Given the primetime TV exposure, media presence, massive fan presence, and overall hype, I could certainly understand why there would be motivated reasoning to get this game in.
MLB is going to try again today. Candidly, they are not quite out of the woods. The official forecast for Bristol, Tennessee calls for partly sunny skies with chance of showers or thunderstorms. The probability of precipitation is 30%. It is also important to remember that 30% is not 0%, so if it rains, that was in the forecast. Let me add one additional meteorological nugget. Complex, mountainous terrain can be a challenge for weather radar beams. Experienced meteorologists can often decipher what they see in these regions better than the average person looking at their favorite radar app.