Israel's daring, dazzling, dangerous victory
THERE ARE immutable rules to Middle Eastern wars that not even Donald Trump can change. Once a ceasefire is announced, both sides rush to land one more blow. After the truce starts they sneak in a final volley. For ten hours after the president announced a ceasefire ending the 12-day Iran-Israel war, there were tit-for-tat strikes. By the time he got up on June 24th, Mr Trump had had enough, declaring on the White House lawn, 'they don't know what the fuck they're doing!' He then called Binyamin Netanyahu and read the riot act. Israel's jets turned back.
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Times
10 minutes ago
- Times
Israel-Iran war live: US strikes ‘only set Iran's nuclear programme back a few months'
Israel's military said that seven personnel were killed during combat in the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday. The seven soldiers from the IDF's Combat Engineering Corps were killed in an explosion at approximately 6.30pm in Khan Yunis on Tuesday, The Jerusalem Post reported. A soldier was severely injured on Tuesday in a separate incident in southern Gaza, the military added in a statement. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said late on Tuesday that talks between the US and Iran were 'promising' and that Washington was hopeful for a long-term peace deal. 'We are already talking to each other, not just directly but also through interlocutors. I think that the conversations are promising. We are hopeful that we can have a long-term peace agreement that resurrects Iran,' Witkoff told Fox News. 'Now it's for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement, and I am very confident that we are going to achieve that,' added Witkoff. The US airstrikes on Iran did not 'obliterate' Iran's nuclear programme and only set it back a few months, according to a leaked intelligence assessment that drew a furious response from the White House. President Trump has claimed that the American strikes on three sites had 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's nuclear programme. But an assessment compiled by the Defence Intelligence Agency found that attacks on Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan did significant damage without destroying the facilities, it was reported on Monday night. The agency found that at least some of Iran's highly enriched uranium needed to create a nuclear bomb was moved before the strikes by US B-2 stealth bombers on Sunday, according to the Associated Press, which cited two anonymous sources familiar with the agency's classified report. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, called the leak 'a clear attempt to demean President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear programme'. She added: 'Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.'
The Herald Scotland
30 minutes ago
- The Herald Scotland
Crude price volatile as Middle East developments rock market
The fall reflects relief that Iran appears to have decided against making an attempt to cut off exports of crude from Gulf states in response to the actions of the US and Israel. Traders feared that Iran would try to block the Strait of Hormuz through which around 20% of global production is shipped, including output from Iran. Ashley Kelty, oil and gas analyst at Panmure Liberum investment bank, noted the market took Iran's decision to fire rockets at a US base in Qatar instead as a face-saving move that was intended to de-escalate the situation. 'There was around a $10 per barrel Middle East risk premium over the last week that has been slashed,' said Mr Kelty. He noted that China may have pressed Iran to show restraint. China has provided a key market for sales of Iranian crude, which are subject to extensive sanctions. READ MORE: Israeli-owned firm takes control of UK's biggest gas field However, Mr Kelty noted traders' fears that the ceasefire could fall apart. Israel and Iran accused each other yesterday of breaching it. 'The chances of a long-term deal still look pretty remote,' said Mr Kelty. 'The market is waiting to see if the ceasefire holds and what terms each side will agree to.' Mr Kelty cautioned: 'The chances of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked are greatly reduced but they have not gone away.' He noted that the impact of renewed hostilities could be offset by the fact that leading producers such as Saudi Arabia have agreed to ease curbs on production that were imposed to support prices. 'On fundamentals we are still looking at oversupply this year,' said Mr Kelty. Against that backdrop, a key factor will be the scale of production increases that members of the Opec + group maintain. READ MORE: SNP Government oil hypocrisy shocking amid Scottish jobs cull A fall in oil prices could boost the global economy and fuel demand. But Saudi Arabia requires a $90/bbl price to balance its budget. If oil prices drop below $50/bbl US producers would cut production. Mr Kelty thinks supply and demand will come back into balance next year. Brent is likely to sell for between $60/bbl and $70/bbl this year. Alan Gelder, SVP refining, chemicals and oil markets at the Wood Mackenzie energy consultancy said the Brent crude price could increase by $5/bbl to $10/bbl if hostilities between Israel and Iran resumed. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in a more significant increase in prices but the effect would likely prove short-lived. The US and its allies would probably intervene to clear the Strait. Mr Gelder noted the possibility that demand for crude could fall after US president Donald Trump decides whether to impose the tariffs he put on hold for 90 days after the publication of his plans for them in April. The pause is due to end on July 8. Mr Trump's proposals sparked concern around the world. READ MORE: North Sea drilling curb plans look mad amid Trump trade threats Mukhesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets oil at the Rystad Energy consultancy noted the possibility that oil prices could range from the low $60s per barrel towards the mid $70s. 'A correction in supply is likely to be the main theme until demand recovery takes a turn for the better,' he said. However, Mr Sahdev cautioned: 'Ceasefire agreements need to be robust and provide a clear signal to market participants for trading to return to previous levels. 'For now, signals remain uncertain, and geopolitical risks persist, keeping volatility high, even as some progress towards peace is made.' Brent crude sold for around $65/bbl early this month before Israel launched attacks on Iran on June 13. On the outlook for stock markets, Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at the IG trading platform, said: 'The pause in the fighting [between Israel and Iran] removes a key worry for investors and puts a sustained rally in equities back on the table. 'There are still hurdles to navigate, most notably the 8 July deadline for trade deals, but for the moment the market thinks that there will be some kind of fresh extension.'
Reuters
30 minutes ago
- Reuters
Iran hangs three men for spying for Israel
DUBAI, June 25 (Reuters) - Iran executed three men on Wednesday, after they were convicted of collaborating with Israel's Mossad spy agency and smuggling equipment used in an assassination, the judiciary's Mizan news agency reported. The equipment they smuggled was used in the assassination of one unnamed personality, Mizan reported without giving further details. Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel before the recent open conflict, Iran has put to death many individuals convicted of having links with the Mossad and facilitating the latter's operations in the country. These range from assassinations of nuclear scientists to acts of sabotage meant to undermine Iran's nuclear programme.
