Albanese risks becoming a bystander to Trump's trade whims
'There's no doubt that there's no one that's got a better deal,' Albanese said following Trump's dramatic April press conference in the White House Rose Garden.
That boast could quickly evaporate after Trump announced he plans to lift the baseline tariff rate for US imports from 10 per cent to somewhere between 15 and 20 per cent. As with everything in Trump's volatile universe, the situation is in flux and liable to change at any moment. Yet, a president who a few months ago was accused of 'always chickening out' on tariffs is emboldened and is leaning into his protectionist instincts. After an initial market freak-out, Trump's trade wars have had a milder impact on the US economy than first feared, encouraging him to double down on his 'tariff man' persona.
That's a troubling sign for Australia, which risks becoming collateral damage in Trump's bid to squeeze more money from countries that export goods to the US. While Australia is not the focus of Trump's trade ire it has not been singled out for special favours either. That is despite the countries' alliance and the fact Australians buy more goods from the US than they do from us.
Trump has an intuitive respect for great powers like China, Russia and India, but little regard for traditional American alliances, leaving middle powers like Australia in a tough position. The risk for Albanese is that he becomes a bystander to Trump's trade whims rather than a dealmaker able to influence them.
The gold standard for dealing with Trump appears to be Britain's centre-left prime minister Keir Starmer. After a successful meeting with Trump at the White House in February, the US and UK announced a 'historic trade deal' that would lock in a 10 per cent tariff rate for British exports to the US and cut the tariff on UK steel exports from 50 to 25 per cent.
As for Albanese and Trump, their relationship got off to a strong start with a friendly February phone call in which Trump committed to consider granting Australia an exemption to his steel and aluminium tariffs. Later that day Trump described Albanese as a 'fine man', another promising sign. Since then, there's been nothing to crow about.
The mooted metals exemption never eventuated, and the pair did not have another phone call until after Albanese's election victory in May. Albanese has not been invited to visit the White House and a planned June meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada was cancelled when Trump returned early to Washington.
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