MELI Set to Report Q2 earnings: Time to Hold or Fold the Stock?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is pegged at $6.52 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 28.57%. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $12.01 per share. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 14.6%.
MELI Earnings Surprise History
Meli's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 22.59%.
Earnings Whispers for MELI
According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.
MELI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Top-Line Growth Estimates for Q2
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 Argentina revenues is pegged at $1.46 billion, suggesting an increase of 68.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for Brazil revenues is pinned at $3.5 billion, indicating an increase of 26.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus mark for Mexico revenues is pinned at $1.38 billion, indicating a 15.2% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from other countries is pegged at $294 million, suggesting a 33% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Factors Shaping Upcoming Results of MELI
MercadoLibre entered the second quarter of 2025 with strong momentum following exceptional first-quarter results that demonstrated sustained growth across both e-commerce and fintech segments. The company reported net revenues of $5.9 billion in the first quarter, up 37% year over year on a reported basis and 64% on an FX-neutral basis, establishing a solid foundation for continued expansion in the quarter under review.
Several positive factors likely supported the upcoming results. Argentina performed exceptionally well in Q1 with U.S. dollar revenues more than doubling year-on-year, driven by macroeconomic stabilization, and this momentum is expected to have continued into the second quarter.
The company's fintech segment maintained a robust growth trajectory, with monthly active users reaching 64.3 million, growing 31.2% year over year in the first quarter, suggesting sustained user engagement in the quarter under review.
However, several headwinds may have tempered second-quarter results. The company's strong operational leverage and expanding margins from operational efficiencies are expected to have continued, though foreign exchange volatility across Latin American markets remained a persistent challenge.
Competition from the likes of e-commerce giants, such as Amazon AMZN, Alibaba BABA and Walmart WMT, might have intensified in the second quarter, especially in Mexico and Brazil. These global rivals bring pricing pressure, fulfillment scale and brand recognition. Amazon's Prime delivery network and Walmart's omnichannel capabilities likely created additional competitive dynamics, while Alibaba's cross-border commerce expertise may have attracted price-sensitive consumers. Their push into low-ticket and essential items could have challenged MELI's margins and user retention in the quarter under review.
MELI Price Performance & Stock Valuation
MELI's impressive 39.6% year-to-date return has significantly outpaced both the Retail-Wholesale sector's 6% gain and the S&P 500's 7.9% appreciation, positioning the stock among the year's notable outperformers alongside Alibaba's remarkable 42.3% surge, while Amazon and Walmart have returned 6.75% and 8.5%, respectively.
MELI's YTD Price Performance
However, this strong performance has pushed MELI's valuation to concerning levels that warrant serious consideration for profit-taking ahead of second-quarter 2025 earnings. The company's forward 12-month Price-to-Sales ratio of 3.81X represents a substantial 75% premium to the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry average of 2.17X, indicating that elevated growth expectations are already fully reflected in the current share price. The stock's Value Score of D further underscores the stretched valuation metrics, suggesting limited upside potential and heightened vulnerability to any earnings disappointment. With such premium valuations embedded and strong YTD gains already captured, investors should consider reducing exposure before potential volatility surrounding the upcoming quarterly results.
MELI Trades at a Premium
Conclusion
MercadoLibre enters the second quarter of 2025 with continued momentum from Argentina's recovery and sustained fintech expansion, building on the strong platform innovations and user engagement demonstrated in the prior quarter. However, investors should maintain a cautious stance ahead of earnings. Ongoing strategic investments in logistics infrastructure and credit card rollouts across Brazil and Mexico are likely pressuring near-term margins, while intensifying competition from global e-commerce giants Amazon, Alibaba, and Walmart may challenge market share in key segments. The stock's premium valuation and year-to-date gains suggest limited upside potential at current levels.
MercadoLibre currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), which implies investors should stay away from the stock right now. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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