Shane Lowry as first-round leader leads our 2025 Open Championship prop bet picks

USA Today

16 hours ago

Royal Portrush is hosting the final major of the year, welcoming the world's top players to Northern Ireland for the 2025 Open Championship. The first round begins on Thursday morning with the new champion golfer of the year being crowned on Sunday afternoon.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the 2025 Open Championship from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the week as the favorite yet again, seeking his second major championship victory of the year. The PGA Championship winner is +500 to win the Claret Jug, followed closely by Masters champs and Northern Ireland's own Rory McIlroy at +700. LIV player Jon Rahm has the third-best odds at +1200, with Bryson DeChambeau +2200 to win. Xander Schauffele is the defending champion and tied for the fifth-best odds at +2500.
Royal Portrush (par 71) is 7,381 yards and is hosting this historic event for the second time since 2019. Shane Lowry won here 6 years ago with a score of 15-under par, clearing the rest of the field by a whopping 6 strokes. Royal Portrush features a classic links-style layout with huge dunes separating holes and greens that test players with their undulation and slopes. The winning score has been between 8-under and 20-under in the last 10 Open Championships.
Open Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 1:55 p.m. ET.
Is this the year for Hatton to break through and win a major? He was close at the U.S. Open and now he's in his comfort zone at an Open Championship where he's notched 4 top-20s since 2016, including sixth- and fifth-place showings. Not to mention, he won the Alfred Dunhill Links at St. Andrews last year and finished sixth at the 2023 Scottish Open. He's built for links golf and he tied for sixth at this very course in 2019.
Schauffele is flying a little bit under the radar but the reigning champion deserves more attention as a great links player. He's made the cut in all 7 of his Open Championship appearances, with his worst finish being a T-41 in 2019. Other than that, he has a win, a runner-up and 3 other top-20 finishes.
Hovland missed the cut last year, but in his 3 career Open starts before that, he came in 12th, fourth and 13th. Like Hatton, he seems like a player who's poised to win this event at some point in his career, given his ball-striking ability. He's coming off an 11th-place showing at last week's Scottish Open, too.
Open Championship – Top-10 picks
Fleetwood was the runner-up here in 2019 when it was played at Royal Portrush, 1 of 2 top-5 finishes in the Open in his last 5 starts. He's a terrific links player with his ability to flight the ball under the wind, which isn't something everyone can do.
Rahm has been excellent in the Open during his career, finishing 11th here in 2019. Since then, he's come in seventh, second, 34th and third, often finding himself in contention on Sunday. Rahm has had a great year in the majors, finishing 14th at Augusta, eighth at the PGA Championship and seventh at the U.S. Open, so he's trending in the right direction.
Spieth is healthy again after dealing with neck spasms at the Travelers Championship and he's as reliable as anyone in the Open Championship. Since 2015, he has 1 win in this major, 4 other top-10 finishes and his worst performance was a T-30 in 2016. He has the ball-striking and short game creativity to win on links courses.
Open Championship – Top-20 picks
Straka came in second in the 2023 Open and 22nd last year. Just last week, he finished seventh at the Scottish Open, once again showing he knows how to play links-style courses. His performance in signature events this year has been great, including a win at the Truist Championship, though it's shocking he's missed the cut in all 3 majors so far.
Young opted not to play the Scottish Open so he hasn't played since the Rocket Classic in late June. He showed signs of encouragement with back-to-back fourth-place finishes in the RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open, so he now heads to the Open Championship with his game in a good spot. He's come in second, eighth and 31st in 3 career Open starts.
The 2023 Open champion had finished 19th and sixth in his 2 previous starts in this championship, so it wasn't a fluke that he broke through and won despite incredibly long odds. He's a quality links player who made the cut at the Scottish Open last week after finishing 12th and 21st in that event the 2 years prior.
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Open Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Rory McIlroy (+130) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-165)
We hit this last week at the Scottish and it's worth going back to again with Scheffler so heavily favored. McIlroy is at home in Northern Ireland where he did miss the cut in 2019, but only after making a quadruple bogey and triple bogey in the 1st round before shooting 65 in Round 2. McIlroy has the edge in links golf.
Ludvig Aberg (+105) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (-125)
DeChambeau has not fared well in the Open during his career, missing the cut 3 times in 7 tries and finishing better than 30th only once. Aberg doesn't have as much experience in this event, missing the cut in his debut last year, but he finished eighth at the Scottish last week and fourth in 2024.
Sepp Straka (-118) vs. Justin Thomas (-105)
Thomas' game is made for links golf with his ability to shape the ball, and he's even said playing this style of golf suits him well. However, the results haven't been there, missing the cut 3 times in 8 appearances with zero top-10s and only 1 finish better than T-31.
Open Championship – Top American
This market takes some of the big guns out of play, including McIlroy and Rahm. Schauffele does have Scheffler to contend with, as well as Collin Morikawa, but he's the defending champion and has perhaps the highest floor of anyone in the field thanks to his made-cut streak and Open history.
Open Championship – Top Asian
Can Kim go back-to-back weeks as the top Asian finisher? He was the runner up in the 2023 Open and has fared well in the Scottish Open during his career, coming in third, sixth, 15th and 17th in 4 starts. None of the other Asian players in the field are particularly great on links courses.
Open Championship – First-round leader
Lowry was the champion at Royal Portrush in 2019 after firing an opening-round 67, which put him in second on the leaderboard. He also shot 66 in the first round last year, also the second-best score on Thursday.
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