'Forecasts were there': Emergency response questioned in Texas floods

UPI

10-07-2025

1 of 3 | Aerial view of the wreckage left in the wake of the flooding in Kerr County, Texas, on Sunday. USCG MH-65 helicopters have conducted multiple flights to the flooded area, rescuing 15 campers from Camp Mystic in Hunt and aiding in the evacuation of 230 people. Photo via U.S. Coast Guard/UPI | License Photo
July 10 (UPI) -- More than 100 people are dead and 150 known to be missing in Texas Thursday from flooding but questions remain about how the effects of the deadly disaster could have been mitigated.
Kerr County is where most of the deaths and missing persons originate from, but more counties have reported fatalities: Travis, Kendall, Burnet, Williamson and Tom Green County.
Hunt, Texas, the site of Camp Mystic for Girls, is located in Kerr County. Twenty-seven campers and counselors from the camp were confirmed dead while five campers and one counselor were listed as missing on Tuesday.
The search for blame has extended to Washington with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., demanding an investigation into whether staffing cuts by the Trump administration are in any way responsible for weakening disaster mitigation efforts in Texas.
President Donald Trump's administration, in its broad effort to reduce federal spending, has cut positions in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and proposed more cuts.
"According to The New York Times -- key forecasting and coordination positions at the [National Weather Service] offices responsible for this region -- were vacant at the time of the storm," Schumer wrote in a letter to acting inspector general Duane Townsend. "NYT further reports that the vacancy rate at many NWS offices nationwide has roughly doubled since President [Donald] Trump returned to office -- due in part to a wave of early retirements encouraged by the administration and a freeze on hiring. The roles left unfulfilled are not marginal, they're critical."
NOAA eliminated the positions of hundreds of probationary employees beginning in February.
NOAA's budget justification for fiscal year 2026 -- a detailed breakdown of how funding will be used -- outlines about a $2.2 billion reduction in research funding. This would include climate and weather research. The responsibilities of the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research would be terminated with some of its remaining responsibilities being moved to the National Weather Service and National Oceanic Service.
Staff was not an issue in Texas on July 3 and July 4, according to a press release shared with UPI by NOAA. Extra staff members were on duty at the National Weather Service's Weather Forecast Offices in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo, Texas, on July 3 and into the daytime on Friday.
"All forecasts and warnings were issued in a timely manner," the press release reads. "Additionally, these offices were able to provide decision support services to local partners, including those in the emergency management community."
The timeline shared by NOAA begins before what was shared by Kerr County officials.
On the morning of July 3, the National Water Center Flood Hazard Outlook "indicated an expansion of flash flood potential" for Kerrville, Texas, in Kerr County and surrounding areas.
At 1:18 p.m. CDT on July 3, a flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office. It was to remain in effect through Friday morning.
As early as 6:10 p.m. on July 3, the Weather Prediction Center issued three forecasts focused on excessive rainfall "indicating the potential for flash flooding."
At 6:22 p.m. on July 3, the National Weather Center Area Hydrologic Discussion issued "locally considerable flood wording" -- messaging guidance -- for areas north and west of San Antonio including Kerrville.
At 11:41 p.m. on July 3, the first flash flood warning was issued for Bandera County.
"The point is the forecasts were there," Clifford Mass, professor of atmospheric and climate science at the University of Washington, told UPI. "The mechanisms to distribute the forecasts were there. This was a failure of local counties and municipalities and people running these camps."
Mass added that weather forecasting, including for dangerous weather, is better than it has ever been. However, local officials have not taken proper steps to maintain the safety of their populations in several instances, including ahead of the floods in Texas.
"This has happened time and time again. Some local groups, counties and cities are not taking advantage," he said. "Governmental structures are not acting properly. You can't expect everybody to be an expert on emergency management. It has to be done at a higher level."
The Texas legislature will convene a special session beginning on July 21. Its agenda includes items related to improving the state's disaster response and emergency management.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Kerr County officials refused to answer questions from reporters about who would have made decisions relating to evacuation orders during separate press conferences on Tuesday.
Abbott confirmed that the state government was aware of the possibility of serious flooding on July 2.
"We pre-positioned assets and resources and personnel," Abbot said during Tuesday's press conference. "Then when greater clarity was discerned on Thursday we moved them closer, added and made sure we had adequate supply going into Friday. So we were ready with resources on the ground to be able to quickly respond."
"That said, we didn't know the magnitude of the storm," he continued. "If you're in a flash flood warning, no one would know that would be a 30-foot high tsunami wall of water, I don't think."
According to Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha, the first flood emergency alert happened at 1:14 a.m. CDT on Friday. Dispatchers began receiving calls about the flood between 3 and 4 a.m. and he was first contacted by a sergeant between 4 and 5 a.m.
"We're in the process of trying to put a timeline. That's going to take a little bit of time," Leitha told reporters on Tuesday morning. "That is not my priority at this time. There's three priorities. That's locating the people out there, identifying and notifying the next of kin. That is what I'm taking as my job as sheriff here to do."
When asked whether the county's emergency manager was awake and able to issue an emergency alert during the early morning hours, Leitha said he could not say.
"Sir, it's not that easy to just push a button. There's a lot more to that," Leitha said. "I can't tell you at this time."
Lt. Col. Ben Baker, deputy director of law enforcement of the Texas Game Wardens, then declined to answer a follow-up question about who from emergency management was receiving weather briefings and would have made a decision to evacuate.
"We understand you have many questions. We understand that," Baker responded. "Right now, this team up here is focused on bringing people home. That's our focus. All those questions will be answered but the priority right now is bringing people home."
In his press conference Tuesday afternoon, Abbott became combative with a reporter who asked "who is to blame here?"
"Know this, that's the word choice of losers. Every football team makes mistakes," Abbott said. "The losing teams are the ones that try to point out who's to blame. The championship teams are the ones that say, 'Don't worry about it, man. We got this. We're going to make sure we go score again and we're going to win this game. What Texas is all about is solutions."
Anyone with information about people missing from the flood is encouraged to call 830-258-1111 or email [e-mail].