'Combined opposition' to continue for now, but for how long?

RTÉ News​

3 hours ago

The sight of Opposition leaders gathering together on the plinth at Leinster House has become very familiar in recent weeks.
The so-called "combined opposition" emerged as a force during the heat of the speaking rights row back in January when the Dáil failed to elect a Taoiseach.
Since then, the group has pooled its weight and resources repeatedly to advance issues of mutual interest.
In recent weeks, this has included joint motions on Israeli war bonds, the Raise the Roof protest and the support of disability campaigner Cara Darmody.
At times, the collective approach has included leaders from Sinn Féin, the Labour Party, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, Independent Ireland and the Green Party.
But what is really going on behind the scenes?
One party source said it all flowed from the speakers' rights controversy, but added that it is also an evolution of co-operation in the last Dáil.
They said: "It will continue where there are issues of common concern. But each individual party will want to maintain its own identity.
"It's quite easy to agree to be against Government at the moment, there will be more nuances and policy differences as the Government goes on."
One Sinn Féin TD said he saw real potential for co-operation on the issues of housing and the Middle East and that the move was about "combining and maximising collective strength".
And all agree that the overlap with Independent Ireland is limited and they are diametrically opposed on key policy areas.
But it is also clear that for Sinn Féin, this is about demonstrating to voters that there is a viable alternative Government - one made up of parties on the left.
One party source said this hurt its vote in the last general election.
"This is about showing that there is a viable alternative government in the medium term," they said.
They point to the presence of Opposition spokespeople on stage at the Raise the Roof protest this week.
"The physical presence of us stood together on the platform, that is a powerful symbol for those who want to see more cooperation and a potential alternative," they added.
"Looking to the next election, the question is what is the alternative government?"
A Social Democrats source also contended that this is partly about offering a realisable option to voters who do not support the current Government.
They said: "The dynamic in this Dáil is unique. This is the second Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael government plus independents. These are two parties in decline over time, with a largely older voter base.
"Looking to the next election, the question is what is the alternative government? A lot of people say to us that it is good to see you working together and that there appears to be an alternative."
But all are clear that individual parties will continue to maintain their own identities and forge unique policies.
Some in Labour and the Social Democrats said the whole dynamic has been overstated.
A Labour source points out that they have "serious" differences with Sinn Féin on migration, housing and some tax issues.
And it is clear that some have concerns about being perceived as tied to Sinn Féin.
The Social Democrats has also rebuffed a few suggestions of joint appearances amid concern that the device could be overused.
Behind the scenes, there have also been moves to change up the order of speakers at events so that Sinn Féin is not the assumed first speaker.
This has been part of a concerted move to ensure Mary Lou McDonald is not seen as the de facto leader.
Another source in a smaller party queries Sinn Féin's assertion that it is the "leader of the Opposition", suggesting this is language imported from Westminster where one large opposition party dominates.
"Certainly there should not be a situation where Sinn Féin thinks it can call the shots," they said.
Some Labour members have also fed back to party leadership that they are not happy with the joint approach on issues.
Another source suggested that Sinn Féin has it "totally wrong" if it thinks it can present a picture of an alternative government when there are "sharp differences" between the parties.
In response, a Sinn Féin source acknowledged that smaller parties are always worried about being carved up by larger ones.
Presidential election a looming test of cohesion
A looming test of cohesion is the bid for the combined left to nominate a joint candidate for the presidency.
Smaller parties see this as a crucial decision point for Sinn Féin as it has the numbers to select its own person if it wishes.
Some Sinn Féin TDs have privately suggested the party should not run its own candidate as they believe the position is not winnable for one of its politicians
But another source said that fielding a party person would present the opportunity to "frame the debate", particularly on its core issue of a united Ireland.
Although they add that they are aware there would be "consequences" if the party did badly.
And it is not all harmony. A Labour source said he has picked up some disquiet from individuals who could run as a civil society candidate but who do not wish to be jointly nominated by Sinn Féin.
Overall, there are mixed views as to how long the combined opposition will last.
One source said they could not predict what would happen in a year, but it would continue for now.
Another contends that disharmony will be rife as it gets closer to election time.
For now though, many of the Opposition parties feel it is a useful device to combine strengths and make a bigger impact.