South Korea's Choice of Next Leader Crucial to National Security

Japan Forward

13-05-2025

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In South Korea, on June 3, voters will select a successor to impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol. With less than a month to go, South Korea's main candidates in the presidential election have now been selected.
Their campaigns will necessarily focus on how to end the domestic political turmoil. However, South Korea's foreign and defense policies also impact the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, including Japan. Hopefully, there will be a serious debate on issues related to national security.
Kim Moon-soo, former Minister of Employment and Labor, was chosen as the ruling People's Power Party candidate on May 3. However, former Prime Minister Han Duk-soo, a conservative who served as acting president, also announced his candidacy as an independent.
Former progressive Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, however, has been leading in the polls. His party is the largest of the opposition parties. Interest will now be focused on whether conservatives can unite around a single candidate to challenge Lee.
Lee also has problems. On May 1, the Supreme Court of South Korea overturned a March Seoul High Court verdict that had acquitted Lee of charges of violating the Public Offices Election Law. Some observers believe that the Supreme Court ruling, which suggested Lee may be guilty, may cause moderate voters to turn away from him. South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-Myung (©Sankei)
Clearly, South Korea's domestic politics are in flux. However, it is important to note that the security environment surrounding the country has also been seriously deteriorating.
In 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty. North Korea's dispatch of troops to aid Russia in its invasion of Ukraine has been justified, based on that treaty. It stipulates that each side will provide the other with military assistance in the event of a contingency. That increases the likelihood that Russia may join the conflict in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula.
It is possible that North Korea could attack South Korea at the same time that China invades Taiwan. This has also been pointed out.
In the past, Lee has made statements like, "Whatever happens in the Taiwan Strait has nothing to do with us." He has also said, "South Korea should not get involved in a Taiwan emergency." However, to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, cooperation among Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan is desirable.
Furthermore, Lee has made other provocative statements like "Japan is a military adversary" and the "US should withdraw [from the Korean Peninsula]." We recall with concern such past comments by Lee. They were not only anti-Japanese but also ignored the severe security environment in Northeast Asia.
The parties that would delight most in a weakened Japan-South Korea and Japan-US-South Korea solidarity are none other than the autocratic nations of China, North Korea, and Russia.
Both Kim and Han are trying hard to distance themselves from Yoon, but it would be undesirable for all of Yoon's policies to be rejected. The security cooperation with Japan and the United States that Yoon promoted is unrelated to his martial law declaration fiasco. Hopefully, the candidates will forthrightly attest to the importance of Japan-US-Korea cooperation..
Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun
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