Brock Purdy won't be elite until he improves in one specific area
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has miraculously hit the ground running as an NFL quarterback despite being selected with the final pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
He long ago cleared all reasonable expectations for his draft position. There are new expectations now that Purdy has received a five-year, $265 million contract extension. There's one major area Purdy has to improve if he's going to meet or exceed those expectations.
The raw data tells us Purdy has been an extremely productive signal caller since stepping in as the 49ers No. 1 QB in Week 13 of the 2022 season. There have been debates about Purdy's impact on a very productive 49ers offense, but he continues to be a really good player by virtually every metric.
One thing about Purdy's statistical profile stands out, though, and it may be the thing holding him back from being a consensus "elite" quarterback. He is not good when the 49ers are trailing.
Here are Purdy's career numbers in three game scenarios via Pro Football Reference:
49ers lead: 363-527 (68.9%), 4,942 yards (9.4 YPA), 35 TD, 7 INT, 115.2 RTG
49ers tied: 146-220 (66.4%), 1,801 yards (8.2 YPA), 14 TD, 4 INT, 105.1 RTG
49ers trail: 213-322 (66.2%), 2,775 yards (8.6 YPA), 15 TD, 16 INT, 87.9 RTG
There is some expected drop off with his team behind. The interceptions could tick up especially if the 49ers are trailing late and they have to throw. A leap in interception rate from 1.4% with the 49ers tied or leading, to 7.5% when they're behind is catastrophic.
This is something Purdy has to clean up if he's going to launch himself into the upper echelon of NFL QBs.
And it isn't even about the production. It's just about the back-breaking turnovers Purdy is prone to when the 49ers are behind late in a game. Last season he threw four interceptions on 49 attempts (8.2% INT rate) with his team behind with fewer than four minutes to play. It's also worth noting he has zero touchdowns in those situations in his career along with eight interceptions.
Those are wasted opportunities to not only come back, but to stamp himself as a player who can carry the 49ers to wins.
Purdy ideally won't have to carry the 49ers to anything. A well-rounded team that is consistently dominant is the preferred route to victory. There will be times the club leans on its franchise QB to lead them to victory, however, and his ability to do that instead of struggling when they're behind will ultimately determine if he can elevate himself into the NFL's elite QB tier.
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