Democrats Could Win First Texas Senate Race in 33 Years: Poll

Newsweek

01-05-2025

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Democrat Colin Allred could defeat Republican Ken Paxton in a hypothetical battle for the Senate seat currently occupied by John Cornyn, according to GOP polling obtained by the Houston Chronicle.
Were this to happen at next year's election, it would make Allred the first Democratic Senator from Texas since Robert Krueger in 1993. Allred, who lost a bid for Ted Cruz's Texas Senate seat in November 2024, has said he is considering joining the race.
Newsweek contacted Allred, Cornyn and Paxton for comment via email and online inquiry form on Thursday outside of regular office hours.
Why It Matters
There are currently 53 Republican Senators against 47 who are either part of or caucus with the Democrats. If the Democrats manage to secure a Senate majority at the November 2026 midterm elections, it would dramatically restrict the Trump administration's freedom to operate.
What To Know
In an article published on Wednesday, the Houston Chronicle said it has seen an internal Republican poll which found 52 percent of Texan likely voters would back Allred in a hypothetical contest against, against 37 percent for the current Texas attorney general.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in mid-April by a pollster founded by Brad Parscale, formerly Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign manager. It didn't test other Democratic names.
A separate survey of 605 Republican primary voters conducted by the same pollster found Paxton on track to beat incumbent Cornyn by 17 points in the GOP primary contest.
Cornyn has been a Texas Senator since 2002 but is facing a challenge from Paxton, who pledged to "champion President Trump's legislative priorities" on his campaign website.
Colin Allred speaking on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.
Colin Allred speaking on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.
GETTY
The campaign has already turned heated, with Cornyn having branded Paxton "a con man and a fraud," while the attorney general previously accused Cornyn of representing "the Bush wing of the GOP."
In 2023, Paxton was acquitted by the Texas Senate of 16 articles of impeachment including corruption, misusing official information and abusing his official capacity.
In November 2024, Cruz defeated Allred, a former NFL player for the Tennessee Titans, with 53.1 percent of the vote against 44.6 percent. Allred served as representative for Texas's 32nd congressional district between 2019 and 2025.
Beto O'Rourke, a former House Democrat who lost the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election to Governor Greg Abbott, has also indicated he could run for Cornyn's seat.
During a town hall in Denton he said: "If it comes to pass that this is what the people of Texas want, that it's the highest and best use of what I can give to you, then yes I will."
What People Are Saying
Speaking to the Houston Chronicle, Texas State Senator Paul Bettencourt, a Republican, said: "If I was an incumbent senator with these types of polling numbers, I probably wouldn't run because you can't win."
In a statement in April, Cornyn's spokesperson said: "During his first term, John Cornyn voted with President Trump more than 95 percent of current Senators, securing the votes for his biggest accomplishments as his Whip. Democrats are trying to destroy President Trump, and he and Texas need a battle-tested conservative who knows how to protect his agenda in the Senate and won't be outsmarted by [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer."
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen whether Allred will enter the Democratic primary for the Texas Senate seat. Incumbent Cornyn has given no indication he plans to drop out of the contest following the challenge from Allred.