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Colin Allred's Chances of Beating Cornyn and Paxton in Texas—New Poll
Colin Allred's Chances of Beating Cornyn and Paxton in Texas—New Poll

Newsweek

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • Newsweek

Colin Allred's Chances of Beating Cornyn and Paxton in Texas—New Poll

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Former Democratic Representative Colin Allred trails bothSenator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who are locked in a tight race for the Republican nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat in next year's midterm election, according to a new poll. "This remains a seat that Democrats could win," Matthew Wilson, associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek in an email Friday. However, he noted, "this new polling data showing Cornyn and Paxton tied, both candidates leading Allred, and the redistricting fight a draw in the court of public opinion is music to Republican ears." Why It Matters Texas, which is embroiled in a redistricting battle in the state legislature, is among the states Democrats hope to make competitive in the 2026 midterms. President Donald Trump carried the Lone Star State by double digits last November, and the GOP controls the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, with Democrats hoping to make some inroads. The outcome of the GOP primary between Cornyn and Paxton could have key implications for how competitive the race is. Cornyn leads Allred by a more comfortable margin in polling than Paxton. However, Paxton is favored by many of the state's more conservative voters and has built an early primary polling lead. What To Know A new Emerson College Polling survey finds Allred is the favored Democratic nominee, with 57.7 percent saying they would vote for him if the primary were held today and 34.4 percent undecided. However, in hypothetical matchups, Allred trails both Republican contenders. Allred, a former NFL player, lost his 2024 Senate bid to incumbent Ted Cruz. Allred repeatedly broke fundraising records throughout the campaign. In the new poll, Allred draws 38.1 percent to Cornyn's 45.2 percent, with 16.7 percent undecided. Face-to-face with Paxton, Allred garners 40.6 percent to Paxton's 45.9 percent, with 13.6 percent undecided. Cornyn was first elected to the Senate in 2002, and served as Republican Whip from 2013 to 2019. Paxton has served as the attorney general of Texas since 2015 and previously served in the Texas Senate and House. Paxton has been a vocal supporter of Texas' proposed redistricting maps and has called for the arrest of former Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke over his support for Democrats blocking the GOP plan. Many respondents said they were following the state's redistricting efforts, with 35 percent "very closely" and 43 percent "somewhat closely." Support and opposition to the proposed map for the 2026 midterm elections, were nearly split ahead at 36 percent and 38 percent, respectively. Texas Democratic Senate candidate Representative Colin Allred speaks during a watch party on election night on November 5, 2024, in Dallas. Texas Democratic Senate candidate Representative Colin Allred speaks during a watch party on election night on November 5, 2024, in Dallas. AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez The poll of 1,000 registered Texas voters was conducted August 11-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It included 432 Republicans, 295 Democrats and 273 independents, however, 491 said they would vote in the Republican primary and 370 in the Democratic. A previous poll from YouGov and Texas Southern University, which surveyed 1,200 registered voters from May 9 to 19, showed Cornyn led Allred by 4 percentage points, 48 to 44 percent, while Paxton led by only two points, 48 to 46 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. For decades, Democrats have had an uphill battle in the Lone Star State, which has not voted Democratic on the presidential level since 1976. Stateside, voters have not sworn in a Democratic senator since 1988, nor a Democratic governor since 1990. What People Are Saying Matthew Wilson, associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek in an email Friday: "This poll is the best news that Republicans have had on this race in a while—mostly because it shows Cornyn having closed the gap with Paxton among the primary electorate. Cornyn is widely perceived to be the stronger general election candidate, as he has less baggage and more appeal to independent voters... The redistricting fight appears unlikely to have much impact in the Senate race. This poll shows it to be largely a wash in terms of public opinion, and voters have short memories—the election is, after all, over a year away." Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the poll release: "Seven months ahead of the Republican Primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up, with 37% of voters still undecided. Among these undecided voters, President Trump's job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race." Senator John Cornyn's campaign senior adviser, Matt Mackowiak, previously told Newsweek: "It would be political malpractice for the GOP to have to invest $200+ million to hold a safe Senate seat if Crooked Ken Paxton is the nominee. John Cornyn hasn't been on the ballot in five years. Educating voters about his actual record is job #1 — especially his 99.2% record voting with Trump while President. All public polling shows Cornyn's image with Republican voters is solid and it will continue to grow as voters learn about his actual record. We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it." Former Representative Colin Allred wrote in a Thursday X post: "Today is the 90th anniversary of Social Security. Four million Texans rely on Social Security to get by - John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are gearing up to destroy it. I'm looking at how to make it stronger, because my mom needed it, my family needed it, and I know Texans need it." Texas AG Ken Paxton wrote in an April X post announcing his run: "For years, John Cornyn has betrayed President Trump and the America First movement. Texas deserves better, and that's why I'm running for U.S. Senate." What Happens Next? The primary will be held on March 3, 2026.

Jasmine Crockett's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Primary—Poll
Jasmine Crockett's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Primary—Poll

Newsweek

time10-07-2025

  • Politics
  • Newsweek

Jasmine Crockett's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Primary—Poll

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Recent polling shows Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, at the forefront of likely Democratic voters' preferences in the race for a U.S. Senate seat that will be up for grabs in the 2026 midterms. Why It Matters The 2026 Texas Senate race is viewed as pivotal by both parties, with implications for control of the upper chamber of Congress. Texas has remained a Republican stronghold in recent election cycles despite high-profile Democratic bids from former U.S. Representatives Beto O'Rourke and Colin Allred. Flipping the seat currently held by Republican Senator John Cornyn would represent a major political shift in the state and nation. Crockett has not yet declared a run for Senate but has been viewed by many as a rising star in the Democratic Party on the national stage. Her rise has also drawn significant criticism and backlash from Republicans. Representative Jasmine Crockett speaks during the 2025 ESSENCE Festival of Culture presented by Coca-Cola at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center on July 4, 2025, in New Orleans. Representative Jasmine Crockett speaks during the 2025 ESSENCE Festival of Culture presented by Coca-Cola at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center on July 4, 2025, in New ESSENCE What To Know Crockett led with 35 percent support among surveyed Democratic voters, ahead of Allred at 20 percent, with O'Rourke and Texas Representative Joaquin Castro both at 13 percent, according to a survey conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is supporting Cornyn's campaign against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. O'Rourke and Castro have not yet declared their candidacies, but both remain possible entrants as the December filing deadline approaches. Eighteen percent of respondents remained undecided about their preferred nominee to challenge the Republican candidate. Newsweek reached out to Crockett's office and Allred's campaign for comment. The poll, initially obtained by the Daily Caller, surveyed 566 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted July 4-7. Crockett's margin against her Democratic counterparts far exceeds the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.03 percent. Crockett was also the top choice for "shared values" among likely Democratic voters in a University of Texas at Tyler poll conducted May 28-June 7, garnering 30 percent support. However, when respondents were asked who had the best chance of defeating a Republican, Allred edged into the lead at 34 percent versus Crockett's 27 percent. Allred, who lost to Senator Ted Cruz by 9 percentage points in November, officially launched his campaign July 1. He has positioned himself as a potential nominee with broader general election appeal, especially if Paxton prevails in a contentious Republican primary to unseat Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term. What People Are Saying Ken Wink, UT Tyler professor and interim Center for Opinion Research director, told Newsweek in June: "My assessment is Texas is still a red state. That doesn't mean that it's impossible for Democrats to win, but they don't have a very good track record. It's been decades since they won any statewide race, and I think next year is shaping up again to be a pretty good one for Republicans." Representative Jasmine Crockett, in a June 3 letter announcing her run for ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: "Every hearing, every investigation, every public moment must serve the dual purpose of accountability and must demonstrate why a House Democratic majority is essential for America's future." What Happens Next The Texas Democratic Senate primary is set for March 3, 2026. Candidates can enter the race before the filing deadline in early December. With 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided and party leadership weighing the potential for a competitive general election matchup, the coming months may significantly reshape the field.

Colin Allred announces 2026 U.S. Senate run in Texas
Colin Allred announces 2026 U.S. Senate run in Texas

Yahoo

time01-07-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Colin Allred announces 2026 U.S. Senate run in Texas

The Brief Former Congressman Colin Allred announced he is running for US Senate on Tuesday. Allred is the first big name Democrat to enter the race. Allred lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in a 2024 Senate race. DALLAS - Colin Allred, a former U.S. Representative and ex-NFL linebacker, has announced he will run for U.S. Senate in 2026. Allred's run comes after he narrowly lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the November 2024 election. Allred, a Democrat, previously served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. What they're saying "Washington is broken and the system is rigged — and Texas families are paying the price. Today I'm announcing I'm running for the U.S. Senate because Texans deserve someone who will fight for them," Allred said in a post to X. Allred is the first big-name Democrat to announce a run for the 2026 Senate race. Others believed to be considering a Democratic primary challenge include former Congressmen Beto O'Rourke and Joaquin Castro, as well as Texas Rep. James Talarico. On the Republican side, the primary battle has already begun, with state Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who is in his fourth term, headlining the race. Allred first announced a run for Congress in 2017. He won the Democratic primary in a runoff and went on to defeat incumbent Republican Pete Sessions in 2018. Sessions had represented the 32nd district since its creation in 2003. Upon his arrival in Congress, Allred was elected as co-president of the Democratic freshman class. The Dallas Congressman consistently voted with President Joe Biden during his time in office but drew attention in January when he was one of three Texas Democrats who voted for a resolution denouncing "the Biden administration's open-borders policies." Both progressive Senate candidate Roland Gutierrez and Sen. Ted Cruz criticized that vote. Gutierrez stated that Allred "sided with GOP extremists," while the Cruz campaign called the vote a "disingenuous attempt to posture on the border." Allred's 2024 campaign drew criticism from some Democrats who voiced frustration with his strategy, which did not include frequent, large rallies or significant investment in smaller Texas communities, particularly along the U.S.-Mexico border. Cruz performed significantly better against Allred in 2024 than he did against O'Rourke six years prior, notably showing a much stronger performance in largely Hispanic counties along the border. "It's going to take courage for whatever comes tomorrow and the day after. This country is worth fighting for. Understand that this state is worth fighting for. We are a great country. Nobody needs to make us great again. We are great because we are good, and we are good because that's who we are as a people," Allred said in his concession speech. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won re-election in November 2024 with 53% of the vote, while Allred received 45%. Allred outperformed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who only earned 42% percent of the vote in the Lone Star State. Allred, 41, was raised in Dallas by his single mother. He attended Hillcrest High School before earning a full scholarship to Baylor University. In Waco, he played linebacker for the Bears football team and was named an All-Big 12 candidate in 2005. He signed with the Tennessee Titans in 2006 as an undrafted free agent, playing for four seasons in the NFL. After retiring from professional football, Allred became a civil rights attorney. He worked in the General Counsel's office at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development under Julian Castro during the Obama administration. If elected, he would be Texas' first Black senator. The Source Information in this article comes from Colin Allred's X account and previous FOX 4 coverage.

Democrat Colin Allred is running again for US Senate in Texas

time01-07-2025

  • Politics

Democrat Colin Allred is running again for US Senate in Texas

DALLAS -- Former Texas congressman Colin Allred launched another run for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday after the Democrat's challenge against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz last year broke records for spending but did not deliver his party the breakthrough it has sought for decades in the state. This time, Allred is seeking the seat of Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is facing a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in what is likely to be one of the GOP's most contentious contests in 2026. Allred's announcement comes just seven months after he lost by nearly 9 percentage points to Cruz. That race was one of the most expensive in the country last cycle, with Democrats spending more than $130 million trying to unseat Cruz. A former NFL linebacker and attorney, Allred is the first high-profile Democrat to declare himself a candidate in the race that Democrats see as their best shot next year at ending a 30-year drought in statewide elections in Texas. Another former Democratic congressman, Beto O'Rourke, who came within 3 percentage points of defeating Cruz in 2018, also hasn't ruled out a run. In a video announcing his candidacy, Allred took aim at both Cornyn and Paxton and cast himself as a fighter for those struggling to get ahead. "I get it. Real change might feel impossible," Allred said. 'But I'm not giving up.' Allred tried to position himself as a moderate in last year's race and made protecting abortion rights a centerpiece of his campaign. His supporters included Texas women who had serious pregnancy complications after the state's abortion ban took effect. But his campaign drew criticism early on from some Democrats who grew restless with Allred's strategy of not packing his schedule with raucous rallies or investing more in smaller corners of Texas, including cities along the border with Mexico. In the end, Texas Democrats' streak of losses in statewide races continued while Republicans kept making gains along the predominately Hispanic border with Mexico, which had long been a Democratic stronghold. Allred played four seasons in the NFL, all with the Tennessee Titans, after being undrafted out of Baylor University. He entered Congress after flipping a Republican district in Dallas in 2018. Former astronaut Terry Virts also entered the U.S. Senate race as a Democratic candidate. Looming over the GOP primary between Cornyn and Paxton is whether and when President Donald Trump will make an endorsement. In April, Trump praised both candidates and said he would make a decision later.

Allred launches second Senate bid in Texas
Allred launches second Senate bid in Texas

The Hill

time01-07-2025

  • Business
  • The Hill

Allred launches second Senate bid in Texas

Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) launched another campaign for Senate on Tuesday as Democrats feel increasingly optimistic about their chances in the Lone Star State in 2026. 'I'm announcing my candidacy for the United States Senate to lower costs and stop corrupt politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton from rigging the economy against hard working Texans,' Allred said in his announcement video. Allred, a former professional football player, enters the Democratic primary as Cornyn and Paxton duke it out in what could turn out to be one of the most bruising Republican primaries ahead of 2026. 'Politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are too corrupt to care about us and too weak to fight for us,' Allred said in his announcement. 'I know Washington is broken. The system is rigged, but it doesn't have to be this way.' Allred ran for Senate against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) last year, losing his bid by just over eight points. However, Democrats say they are feeling more optimistic ahead of 2026, given the divisive primary that is emerging between Cornyn and Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is also said to be considering a bid and have spoken to the White House about a potential run. Most polls show Paxton leading Cornyn ahead of the February primary. But other polls show Democrats within striking distance of Paxton in a general election. A poll released bt Texas Southern University last month showed Cornyn leading h Allred by 4 points and Paxton leading Allred by just 2. A separate poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund, which is supporting Cornyn, showed Cornyn leading Allred by 6 points, while Hunt led by 4 and Paxton trailed by 1. Democrats have begun to ramp up their spending in the city ahead of 2026. Texas Majority PAC and the Texas Democratic Party launched an eight-figure campaign dubbed 'Blue Texas' last week aimed at electing Democrats up and down the ballot in the Lone Star State next year. Allred is the second Democrat to jump into the race. Earlier this month, former NASA astronaut and retired Air Force colonel Terry Virts jumped into the primary. In his announcement, Virts positioned himself as a Washington outsider. 'Trump's chaos must be stopped. The corruption is overwhelming. Our Constitution is under attack,' Virts said in his launch video.

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