Jasmine Crockett's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Primary—Poll
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Recent polling shows Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, at the forefront of likely Democratic voters' preferences in the race for a U.S. Senate seat that will be up for grabs in the 2026 midterms.
Why It Matters
The 2026 Texas Senate race is viewed as pivotal by both parties, with implications for control of the upper chamber of Congress. Texas has remained a Republican stronghold in recent election cycles despite high-profile Democratic bids from former U.S. Representatives Beto O'Rourke and Colin Allred. Flipping the seat currently held by Republican Senator John Cornyn would represent a major political shift in the state and nation.
Crockett has not yet declared a run for Senate but has been viewed by many as a rising star in the Democratic Party on the national stage. Her rise has also drawn significant criticism and backlash from Republicans.
Representative Jasmine Crockett speaks during the 2025 ESSENCE Festival of Culture presented by Coca-Cola at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center on July 4, 2025, in New Orleans.
Representative Jasmine Crockett speaks during the 2025 ESSENCE Festival of Culture presented by Coca-Cola at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center on July 4, 2025, in New Orleans.for ESSENCE
What To Know
Crockett led with 35 percent support among surveyed Democratic voters, ahead of Allred at 20 percent, with O'Rourke and Texas Representative Joaquin Castro both at 13 percent, according to a survey conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is supporting Cornyn's campaign against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
O'Rourke and Castro have not yet declared their candidacies, but both remain possible entrants as the December filing deadline approaches.
Eighteen percent of respondents remained undecided about their preferred nominee to challenge the Republican candidate.
Newsweek reached out to Crockett's office and Allred's campaign for comment.
The poll, initially obtained by the Daily Caller, surveyed 566 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted July 4-7. Crockett's margin against her Democratic counterparts far exceeds the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.03 percent.
Crockett was also the top choice for "shared values" among likely Democratic voters in a University of Texas at Tyler poll conducted May 28-June 7, garnering 30 percent support.
However, when respondents were asked who had the best chance of defeating a Republican, Allred edged into the lead at 34 percent versus Crockett's 27 percent.
Allred, who lost to Senator Ted Cruz by 9 percentage points in November, officially launched his campaign July 1. He has positioned himself as a potential nominee with broader general election appeal, especially if Paxton prevails in a contentious Republican primary to unseat Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term.
What People Are Saying
Ken Wink, UT Tyler professor and interim Center for Opinion Research director, told Newsweek in June: "My assessment is Texas is still a red state. That doesn't mean that it's impossible for Democrats to win, but they don't have a very good track record. It's been decades since they won any statewide race, and I think next year is shaping up again to be a pretty good one for Republicans."
Representative Jasmine Crockett, in a June 3 letter announcing her run for ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: "Every hearing, every investigation, every public moment must serve the dual purpose of accountability and must demonstrate why a House Democratic majority is essential for America's future."
What Happens Next
The Texas Democratic Senate primary is set for March 3, 2026. Candidates can enter the race before the filing deadline in early December.
With 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided and party leadership weighing the potential for a competitive general election matchup, the coming months may significantly reshape the field.
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