The art of forming alliances
Two new parties have been formed, which are thought will shore up the political fortunes of the ruling Pheu Thai Party in the next polls.
Large parties tend to forge alliances ahead of elections to optimise their leverage in working to establish a potential coalition government.
Observers compare Pheu Thai to well-oiled machinery adept at building alliances to serve its government formation bids.
However, getting an ally sometimes involves parties being fragmented, as the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) learned the hard way and the United Thai National (UTN) Party may do soon.
Both parties belong to the ultra-conservative camp.
The PPRP was booted out of the Pheu Thai-led coalition at the end of Srettha Thavisin's administration late last year. The PPRP leadership felt the party had been double-crossed by a faction controlled by its former secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow, who, along with more than 20 MPs, broke away over a conflict with party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon.
The Thamanat group's departure split the PPRP down the middle, leaving it with just 20 MPs.
Capt Thamanat's group later defected to the Klatham Party, which Pheu Thai subsequently picked as a coalition partner while purging the PPRP. It was widely reported Klatham, led by Education Minister Narumon Pinyosinwat, turned its back on the PPRP after the latter's leadership denied the Thamanat-led faction its "rightful" share of cabinet posts in the current Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration.
According to the observers, Pheu Thai got to keep the PPRP half it trusted, given Capt Thamanat's longstanding loyalty to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is also regarded as Pheu Thai's de facto leader.
Klatham, despite having a little more than 20 seats to its name, was rewarded with the budget-intensive, A-grade agriculture portfolio and now the education portfolio too.
The party has, since its entry into the government, been viewed to be on a quest to expand. It won local elections, solidifying its ground-level support base which will come in handy in general elections.
Klatham also went on to win a by-election in Nakhon Si Thammarat, rated as a tough race, where it ran against a strong candidate from the Bhumjaithai Party.
Bhumjaithai, too, was geared to spread its wings in several constituencies in the South where the Democrat Party has long asserted dominance.
In Chon Buri, Klatham also wooed a former MP away from the main opposition People's Party which captured the lion's share of MPs in the province that stands as one of the East's economic powerhouses.
Ms Narumon said earlier that it had come to her attention that at least 20 more MPs from other parties were looking to defect to Klatham.
It was around this time that the UTN was reportedly suffering a split similar to that in the PPRP.
The UTN was beset by rumours it had fallen out of favour with Pheu Thai which reportedly contemplated dropping it from the cabinet.
It was also reported that Suchart Chomklin, a UTN stalwart, had attended a dinner with noted party politicians at a posh Italian restaurant in Bangkok some weeks ago. He later spoke of his deep-seated desire to leave the UTN, a party he said where he did not feel he truly belonged.
However, he indicated several party MPs would defect with him if and when he decides to quit the 36-MP UTN.
It was initially speculated the defectors would number at least 20, a figure that mirrors what Ms Narumon had cited.
But some UTN MPs and prominent politicians thought to be joining the Suchart exodus denied the defection reports.
According to unconfirmed reports, Mr Suchart was leaving the UTN and heading to the New Opportunity Party (NOP).
Mr Suchart declined to say if he and the group of MPs were approached by Klatham to become its members, although he admitted he retained ties with Capt Thamanat.
If the UTN expels Mr Suchart and his group, they will be able to move to the NOP.
The NOP is likely to be accepted into the coalition and granted a cabinet seat or two, while the UTN could be purged.
That was the speculation circulating prior to the latest cabinet reshuffle in which ministers in the UTN's quota mostly stayed put.
The observers noted that had the UTN been driven out of the coalition, the party's circumstances and those of the PPRP would have been almost identical.
Klatham, meanwhile, could assume the role of a versatile, sister party emphatically allied to Pheu Thai. The extent of their closeness may play out in situations in which Klatham would contest constituencies where Pheu Thai has not done well traditionally and send in candidates to compete against Bhumjaithai, which is now with the opposition.
Klatham has been known to invest heavily in contesting polls, which has often resulted in victory. By defeating Bhumjaithai, the party could do Pheu Thai a massive favour in stemming it's rival's rise in power that threatens to rival that of Pheu Thai.
Not a decent proposal
With Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's fate likely to be decided around the middle of next month, the People's Party (PP) and Bhumjaithai are reportedly exploring the possibility of forming a new coalition government to rival Pheu Thai should the suspended premier be removed from office.
The PP has floated a proposal in which a new government it supports must agree to dissolve parliament by the end of the year and commit to charter reforms by holding a referendum on setting up a Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) to amend the charter.
According to the main opposition party, it will not accept any ministerial positions and will remain in the opposition until fresh elections are held. Following the proposal, speculation is rife that Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is being eyed for the interim prime minister post.
However, many observers doubt the feasibility of such a proposal, particularly given the Bhumjaithai Party's earlier objection to charter changes. Some even note that the PP's proposal is not meant to succeed but to make headlines and keep the party in the media's focus.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, doubted the former coalition partner would agree to the proposal if it does not fit in with its own political agenda.
This includes the prospect of Bhumjaithai trying to remove Pheu Thai from power and regain control of the Ministry of Interior, a key mechanism in making preparations for national elections.
Bhumjaithai may promise former coalition partners more influential cabinet positions, hoping to entice them away from Pheu Thai. These parties may consider switching sides if Bhumjaithai's offer is worth it, according to Mr Olarn.
The analyst criticised the PP for failing to do its job as the main opposition party fully and effectively, despite its promise to differ and engage in politics constructively.
The party has remained noticeably quiet on several issues involving Ms Paetongtarn, including allegations of land encroachment and her controversial use of promissory notes (PNs) in a 4.43-billion-baht share acquisition.
"The PP is trying to make itself look good after assessing that Pheu Thai is unlikely to survive. They come up with a feel-good proposal when they are supposed to hold the government and Ms Paetongtarn to account.
"That kind of proposal makes the criticism that they are not getting anything done stronger," he said.
He also expressed scepticism over the PP's readiness to form a new government with Bhumjaithai, pointing to the "Hong Kong deal" between Thaksin Shinawatra and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, alleged de facto leaders of Pheu Thai and the PP respectively.
As long as both of them keep quiet on their relationship, public trust could erode further, Mr Olarn said. The relationship between Thaksin and Mr Thanathorn reminds the public of the ties between the Shinawatra family and Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.
The "Hong Kong deal" is said to involve a meeting that supposedly took place in Hong Kong between powerful political actors labelled as the real movers behind Pheu Thai and the PP.
It was reported that the Hong Kong meeting brought up the possibility of the PP one day replacing the conservative bloc in the Pheu Thai-led coalition if and when it was was to be ditched.
Most people are convinced that after the next general election, Pheu Thai and the PP will join forces and form a coalition government. "And the party losing in this proposal is the PP whose move is so naive," Mr Olarn said.
Reacting to a possible hand-shake between Bhumjaithai and the PP, Pheu Thai heavyweights accused the PP of political opportunism.
Leading Pheu Thai figure Phumtham Wechayachai, who is also acting prime minister, urged the PP to think twice before cosying up to Bhumjaithai. He said Bhumjaithai has consistently blocked efforts to amend the constitution, implying that the party is an unreliable partner.
According to Mr Olarn, Pheu Thai is getting nervous as it fears that both parties will form a partnership with the PP possibly looking for something in return. Some 44 PP lawmakers are under investigation by the National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC) for their role in supporting controversial amendments to the lese majeste law.
"What Pheu Thai really fears is that Bhumjaithai will 'fish in its pond'," he said, referring to the attempt by Bhumjaithai to lure MPs from Pheu Thai in light of the leaked audio conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
According to observers, should the Constitutional Court rule against Ms Paetongtarn in the audio leak case, Pheu Thai has one remaining prime ministerial candidate left to put up for a parliament vote -- former attorney-general Chaikasem Nitisiri -- to replace her.
Mr Chaikasem recently attempted to dispel concerns about his ailing health by appearing at a golf course in Nakhon Nayok where he told reporters that the blood clot found in the back of his neck, which subsequently caused a stroke, has since dissolved, and there were no other health problems he needed to worry about.
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