What to watch for when Carney meets Trump
Political commentator Scott Reid discusses what's on Carney's plate when he meets with Trump and what he needs to watch out for.
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Globe and Mail
33 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
WTI Tests Key Support Ahead of Trump-Putin Meeting
WTI Crude Oil futures finished lower yesterday despite a risk-on rally in US equities and the bottom falling out on the Dollar. President Trump has continued to voice a positive outlook towards his Friday meeting with Putin, adding to trader angst as a ceasefire and the easing of sanctions is possibly on the table. Yesterday's CPI report was mixed. Inflation continues to be pesky, and the July report showed that pricing pressure was accelerating outside of tariff related goods. As these tariffs start to filter through more and more to the consumer, inflation will continue to accelerate (maybe), or, economic demand falls enough (stagflation). Globally, the economy looks to be at a do-or-die moment here. We still have no real clarity on tariffs moving forward – making things much more difficult. Fundamentally, OPEC+ and the EIA released longer term estimates that were somewhat friendly. OPEC's demand projections came out much higher than their international counterparts (as is tradition). The cartel, along with the the EIA also pared back 2026 US crude production estimates as the US rig-count continues to fall steadily. Existing well productivity has also showed signs of peaking in the Permian this year which is not great for US oil. Saying 'drill-baby-drill' alongside outlandish plans does not increase US production. Crude up in the $80-90 range does. And the only way to prices back to those levels is from robust and accelerating global trade. At this point, that is a pipe-dream. Today, the Dollar is once again seeing an outsized sell-off. Global confidence is eroding quickly in Dollar supremacy thanks to the continued attacks on the Federal reserve by the President. His statement about 'suing Powell' yesterday came alongside the idea of eliminating monthly Payroll Data. His latest appointment to the Fed board has started voicing radical ideas about reforming the Fed and the world is growing concerned. The macro environment is fraught with risks and clarity is lacking across a lot of asset classes. A sharp risk-off move in US equities is something to keep a close eye on. Attacking our central bank independence is not some limited consequence, hot-button social issue. There is significant risk to what he is doing. Attacking the Fed, while ramping the budget deficit, all while attacking our global trade and financing partners is taking its toll. The tectonic plates of the global monetary system are shifting, and if this continues, the ripple effects could get scary. Risk seems significantly underpriced across financial-assets, equities especially. Technical Analysis: Futures are trading into our longer-term pivot pocket and the picture is starting to look bleak. There is a probability that the catalyst we need will come out of the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday, but the rhetoric surrounding the meetup isn't pointing me in that direction. Significant downside risk is in play if Russian sanctions are eased. Their country is starved for hard currency and oil flows will be the quickest / only way they can right-size their foreign reserve balances and buoy the restart of their post-war economy. If Russian exporters are allowed back onto the board, and their banking sanctions are lifted, they will likely flood the market rapidly. Scenario two is that the meeting goes very poorly and we toughen up on Russian sanctions, a considerably bullish catalyst. Volatility looks underpriced. Shorter dated straddles look attractive through early next week. Generally, when my frustration levels hits this point, it's a sign a bottom is nearing. Intraday pivot and point of balance at… Want to stay informed about energy markets? 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Winnipeg Free Press
44 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Zelenskyy brings Europe's top leaders with him to meet Trump on ending Russia's war
WASHINGTON (AP) — Ukraine's future could hinge on a hastily assembled meeting Monday at the White House as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy brings with him an extraordinary cadre of European leaders to show U.S. President Donald Trump a united front against Russia. The European political heavy-hitters were left out of Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, and they look to safeguard Ukraine and the continent from any widening aggression from Moscow. By arriving as a group, they hope to avoid any debacles like Zelenskyy's February meeting in the Oval Office, where Trump chastised him for not showing enough gratitude for American military aid. The meeting also is a test of America's relationship with its closest allies after the European Union and United Kingdom accepted Trump's tariff hikes partly because they wanted his support on Ukraine. Monday's showing is a sign both of the progress and the possible distress coming out of the Alaska meeting as many of Europe's leaders are descending on Washington with the explicit goal of protecting Ukraine's interests, a rare and sweeping show of diplomatic force. 'It's important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for all of Europe,' Zelenskyy said on X. The night before the meeting, however, Trump seemed to put the onus on Zelenskyy to agree to concessions and suggested that Ukraine could not regain Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, setting off an armed conflict that led to its broader 2022 invasion. 'President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight,' he wrote Sunday night on social media. 'Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!' Zelenskyy appeared to respond with his own post late Sunday, saying, 'We all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably.' He went on to say that 'peace must be lasting,' not as it was after Russia seized Crimea and part of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine eight years ago, and 'Putin simply used it as a springboard for a new attack.' The sitdown in Alaska yielded the possible contours for stopping the war in Ukraine, though it was unclear whether the terms discussed would ultimately be acceptable to Zelenskyy or Putin. The European heavyweights coming to Washington Planning to join Zelenskyy in America's capital are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. On the table for discussion are possible NATO-like security guarantees that Ukraine would need for any peace with Russia to be durable. Putin opposes Ukraine joining NATO outright, yet Trump's team claims the Russian leader is open to allies agreeing to defend Ukraine if it comes under attack. Trump briefed Zelenskyy and European allies shortly after the Putin meeting, and details from the discussions emerged in a scattershot way that seemed to rankle the U.S. president, who had chosen not to outline any terms when appearing afterward with Putin. 'BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA,' Trump posted Sunday on social media. The president also bemoaned media coverage of his summit with Putin and said on Truth Social: 'I had a great meeting in Alaska.' Following the Alaska summit, Trump declared that a ceasefire was not necessary for peace talks to proceed, a sudden shift to a position favored by Putin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that a ceasefire was still possible but that 'the best way to end this conflict is through a full peace deal.' The issues on the table for the European allies European officials confirmed that Trump told them Putin is still seeking control of the entire Donbas region, even though Ukraine controls a meaningful share of it. And Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said the U.S. and its allies could offer Ukraine a NATO-like commitment to defend the country if it came under attack as the possible security guarantee. 'How that's constructed, what we call it, how it's built, what guarantees are built into it that are enforceable, that's what we'll be talking about over the next few days with our partners who are coming in from overseas,' Rubio told NBC's 'Meet the Press.' Rubio said on Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures' that such a commitment 'would be a very big move' by Trump. He expects the delegations will 'spend six, seven hours talking about these things, maybe more, and try to get to a point where we have something more concrete.' Monday's meeting will likely be very tough for Zelenskyy, an official close to the ongoing talks said. That official spoke on condition of anonymity to speak openly about thinking within Ukraine and between allies. Zelenskyy needs to prevent a scenario in which he gets blamed for blocking peace talks by rejecting Putin's maximalist demand on the Donbas, the official said. It is a demand Zelenskyy has said many times he will never accept because it is unconstitutional and could create a launching pad for future Russian attacks. If confronted with pressure to accept Putin's demands, Zelenskyy would likely have to revert to a skill he has demonstrated time and again: diplomatic tact. Ukrainian leadership is seeking a trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump and Putin to discuss sensitive matters, including territorial issues. Zelenskyy is looking to avoid another Oval Office blowup After enduring a public tirade by Trump and Vice President JD Vance in February, Zelenskyy worked to repair relations with the U.S. Constant diplomatic communication and a 15-minute meeting at the Vatican in April on the sidelines of Pope Francis' funeral helped turn the tide. Trump appeared at the time to be swayed by Zelenskyy's conditions for peace. But Trump says he cares primarily about ending the war, an ambition that led him after his meeting with Putin to discard the need for a ceasefire. European allies also have worked with Trump, reaching a deal in July for NATO allies to buy weapons from the U.S. for Ukraine. Ahead of Monday's meeting, France's Macron stressed the importance of building up Ukraine's military and the need to show Putin that Europe interprets his moves as a threat to other nations. 'If we are weak with Russia today, we'll be preparing the conflicts of tomorrow and they will impact the Ukrainians and — make no mistake — they can impact us, too,' Macron said. ___ Kullab reported from Kyiv, Ukraine. Associated Press writer John Leicester contributed from Le Pecq, France.
Japan Forward
4 hours ago
- Japan Forward
Alaska Summit Leaves No Doubt Trump Was Played by Putin
このページを 日本語 で読む United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, but failed to lay out a path to a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. At a joint press conference following the meeting, Putin maintained his hardline stance. A ceasefire, he said, requires that "We didn't get there." It will soon be three and a half years since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. Reaching a ceasefire agreement in a single meeting was too much to be expected, especially without participation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Even so, it is unfortunate that prospects for a stop to the fighting appear as distant as ever. What is concerning is that Trump's appeasement stance in regards to Putin has become conspicuous. In Ukraine, Russian forces continue indiscriminate attacks on civilians. However, at the joint news conference, Trump voiced no criticism of the Russian invasion. To the contrary, both leaders repeatedly described the meeting as "useful" and "productive." Despite that, they did not mention any specific points of agreement. Moreover, they sought to emphasize their close personal ties, which leaves those looking on with a strong sense of discomfort. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to US President Donald Trump upon arriving at Fort Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15. (©Reuters via Kyodo) It is also outrageous that the two men discussed joint development of the Arctic and bilateral business cooperation. In an interview with Fox News that same day after the meeting, Trump revealed that he and Putin had discussed a "territorial swap" between Russia and Ukraine. "It's up to President Zelenskyy to get it done," he said, urging him to "make a deal." Establishing a ceasefire line is one thing. But Ukraine should not be asked to make concessions on territorial issues, which are fundamental to national sovereignty. Trump also stated that he would not immediately consider raising punitive tariffs (secondary tariffs) on countries such as China and India that continue to purchase Russian crude oil. However, he added that he might have to think about that in two or three weeks. Trump has clearly backed down. After all, he previously threatened to impose secondary tariffs if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire agreement. Putin must be laughing out loud now that he has succeeded in buying time to continue his invasion. Speaking in English, Putin also proposed that the two leaders next meet in Moscow. That would rule out participation by President Zelenskyy. President Trump should not accept such a duplicitous invitation. Instead of trying to charm him, Trump should be increasing pressure on the invader. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (©Kyodo) Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbu このページを 日本語 で読む
