Asia: Stocks to gain as US CPI fuels Fed cut bets
Equity-index futures showed benchmarks in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney will all open higher. US indexes climbed more than 1 per cent, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 hitting all-time highs.
While an initial rally in Treasuries faded, money markets priced in an about 90 per cent chance of a Fed reduction next month. Two-year yields, more sensitive to imminent policy moves, slid four basis points to 3.73 per cent. The dollar fell.
The data bolstered expectations that the Fed can move toward rate cuts without reigniting price pressures. While underlying inflation accelerated to the strongest since the start of the year, the modest gain in goods prices eased fears that trade-related costs may feed into broader price pressures.
'Inflation is on the rise, but it didn't increase as much as some people feared,' said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. 'In the short term, markets will likely embrace these numbers because they should allow the Fed to focus on labour-market weakness and keep a September rate cut on the table.'
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said uncertainty over the direction of the economy is decreasing, but it's unclear whether the central bank should concentrate more on controlling inflation or bolstering the job market.
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In a social media post, President Donald Trump resumed his criticism of Jerome Powell over the central bank's decision to hold rates steady. Trump also said he is weighing a lawsuit against the Fed chief over the renovation of the central bank's headquarters - a project whose cost overruns have drawn scrutiny.
'The Fed's policy stance is highly data-dependent, and with inflation contained and labor market softness increasingly evident in revised payroll data, the emphasis will now be skewed toward employment,' said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. 'This inflation print supports the narrative of an insurance rate cut in September, which will be a key driving force for the markets.'
In Asia, Beijing urged local companies to avoid using Nvidia Corp.'s H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes, complicating the chipmaker's return to China after the Trump administration reversed an effective US ban on such sales.
Meanwhile, China will implement more levies on Canadian rapeseed after an anti-dumping probe, escalating a trade spat that's disrupted crop flows.
Separately, China Evergrande Group said its Hong Kong stock will be delisted, marking the end of an era for the former high-flying developer whose demise came to symbolise the country's property bust.
The company's collapse was by far the biggest in a crisis that dragged down China's economic growth and led to a record spate of distress among builders.
Tariff clarity
US officials have kept rates unchanged this year in hopes of gaining clarity on whether tariffs will lead to sustained inflation. At the same time, the labour market – the other half of their dual policy mandate – is showing signs of losing momentum.
With risks to the labour market rising, the Fed would likely tolerate temporarily higher-than-expected inflation prints – provided that the risk of second-round effects remains contained and price expectations stay well-anchored, according to Marco Casiraghi at Evercore.
'I think the real thing now to think about is should we get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business. He said the Fed could have cut rates in June or July if they'd had the 'original' jobs reports numbers.
With CPI out of the way, the focus will shift to Friday's US retail sales figure, where investors will see if consumers appear as upbeat as corporate earnings commentary has made them seem and amid worries about the labour market, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro. BLOOMBERG
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CNA
an hour ago
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Stocks retreat after hot US inflation data shakes Fed rate cut hopes
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Business Times
2 hours ago
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