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Reuters
6 minutes ago
- Reuters
EU's $250 billion-per-year spending on US energy is unrealistic
BRUSSELS/HOUSTON, July 28 (Reuters) - The European Union's pledge to buy $250 billion of U.S. energy supplies per year is unrealistic because it would require the redirection of most U.S. energy exports towards Europe and the EU has little control over the energy its companies import. The U.S. and EU struck a framework trade deal on Sunday, which will impose 15% U.S. tariffs on most EU goods. The deal included a pledge for the EU to spend $250 billion annually on U.S. energy - imports of oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear technology - for the next three years. Total U.S. energy exports to all buyers worldwide in 2024 amounted to $318 billion, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Of that, the EU imported a combined $76 billion of U.S. petroleum, LNG and solid fuels such as coal in 2024, according to Reuters' calculations based on Eurostat data. More than tripling those imports was unrealistic, analysts said. Arturo Regalado, senior LNG analyst at Kpler, said the scope of the energy trade envisioned in the deal "exceeds market realities." "U.S. oil flows would need to fully redirect towards the EU to reach the target, or the value of LNG imports from the US would need to increase sixfold," Regalado said. There is strong competition for U.S. energy exports as other countries need the supplies - and have themselves pledged to buy more in trade deals. Japan agreed to a "major expansion of U.S. energy exports" in its U.S. trade deal last week, the White House said in a statement. South Korea has also indicated interest in investing and purchasing fuel from an Alaskan LNG project as it seeks a trade deal. Competition for U.S. energy could drive up benchmark U.S. oil and gas prices and encourage U.S. producers to favour exports over domestic supply. That could make fuel and power costs more expensive, which would be a political and economic headache for U.S. and EU leaders. Neither side has detailed what was included in the energy deal - or whether it covered items such as energy services or parts for power grids and plants. The EU estimates its member countries' plans to expand nuclear energy would require hundreds of billions of euros in investments by 2050. Its nuclear reactor-related imports, however, totalled just 53.3 billion euros in 2024, trade data shows. The energy pledge reflected the EU's analysis of how much U.S. energy supply it could accommodate, a senior EU official said, but that would depend on investments in U.S. oil and LNG infrastructure, European import infrastructure, and shipping capacity. "These figures, again, are not taken out of thin air. So yes, they require investments," said the senior official, who declined to be named. "Yes, it will vary according to the energy sources. But these are figures which are reachable." There was no public commitment to the delivery, the official added, because the EU would not buy the energy - its companies would. Private companies import most of Europe's oil, while a mix of private and state-run companies import gas. The European Commission can aggregate demand for LNG to negotiate better terms, but cannot force companies to buy fuel. That is a commercial decision. "It's just unrealistic," ICIS analysts Andreas Schröder and Ajay Parmar said in written comments to Reuters. "Either Europe pays a super high non-market reflective price for U.S. LNG or it takes way too much LNG volumes, more than it can cope with." The United States is already the EU's top supplier of LNG and oil, shipping 44% of EU LNG needs and 15.4% of its oil in 2024, according to EU data. Raising imports to the target would require a U.S. LNG expansion way beyond what is planned through 2030, said Jacob Mandel, research lead at Aurora Energy Research. "You can add on capacity," Mandel said. "But if you're talking about the scale that would be necessary to meet these targets, the $250 billion, then it's not really feasible." Europe could buy $50 billion more of U.S. LNG annually as supply increases, he said. The EU has said it could import more U.S. energy as its plan advances to end Russian oil and gas imports by 2028. The EU imported around 94 million barrels of Russian oil last year - 3% of the bloc's crude purchases - and 52 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian LNG and gas, according to EU data. For comparison, the EU imported 45 bcm of U.S. LNG last year. Higher EU fuel purchases would, however, run counter to forecasts for EU demand to decline as it shifts to clean energy, analysts said. "There is no major need for the EU to import more oil from the U.S., in fact, its oil demand peaked a number of years ago," Schröder and Parmar said. ($1 = 0.8571 euro)
Reuters
8 minutes ago
- Reuters
Cincinnati Financial's quarterly profit more than doubles on higher premiums, interest income
July 28 (Reuters) - Property and casualty insurer Cincinnati Financial (CINF.O), opens new tab reported on Monday that its second-quarter profit more than doubled, reflecting higher premiums and investment income. The results reflect the stability of insurance firms, even as trade tensions disrupt other businesses. As consumers and companies grow accustomed to economic uncertainty, spending on policies has remained steady. Earned premiums rose 15% to $2.48 billion, the Fairfield, Ohio-based company said. Investment income jumped 18% to $285 million, driven by higher interest payments from its bond portfolio. The company reported a profit of $685 million, or $4.34 per share, for the three months ended June 30, compared with $312 million, or $1.98 per share, a year earlier. Its shares have risen nearly 4% so far this year as of Friday's close, compared with a nearly 2.3% gain in the S&P 500 insurance index (.SPXIN), opens new tab. Earlier this month, industry bellwether Travelers Companies (TRV.N), opens new tab reported higher profits due to stronger underwriting and investment returns.
Reuters
8 minutes ago
- Reuters
Global stock index falls, euro slides after US-EU trade deal
NEW YORK, LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A global equities gauge fell on Monday while the euro took a tumble and U.S. Treasuries sold off as investors cautiously greeted a trade agreement between the U.S. and European Union at the start of an action-packed week for markets. The weekend's framework trade deal, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described as the best the bloc could get, will impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods while the EU is set to spend $600 billion on U.S. investments and open up some important parts of its market. While the accord may avert a damaging standoff between the trading partners, which account for almost a third of global trade, some European capitals complained it was lopsided in favor of Washington. "The brunt of it is being felt by the euro because when you really step back, Europe gave up a lot. Relatively speaking, the U.S. didn't give up anything," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. Equity investor enthusiasm over the trade deal likely faded as market participants looked into the details and questioned how Europe's requirement for spending on U.S. defense and energy would be enforced, Janasiewicz added. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab fell 2.78 points, or 0.30%, to 938.48. The index, representing stocks from 47 countries, had boasted five record closes out of the prior six trading sessions. Monday's tepid equity action followed a series of record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, thanks to solid quarterly earnings and bets on megacaps and artificial intelligence stocks as well as optimism that the U.S. would ultimately reach agreements with its trading partners. On Wall Street the 500 (.SPX), opens new tab barely managed to squeak another record close, its sixth in a row, by finishing up 1.13 points, or 0.02%, at 6,389.77. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), opens new tab also managed a record close with a gain of 70.27 points, or 0.33%, to 21,178.58. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab fell 64.36 points, or 0.14%, to 44,837.56, still short of its early December record close. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), opens new tab index closed down 0.22%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3), opens new tab fell 0.15%. Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, said that removing uncertainty was a relief along with the 15% tariff rate, which was lower than some of "the ridiculous numbers" being talked about in early April. "You've got some certainty going forward, and you've got numbers that seem reasonable," he said. Orlando said investors should be patient since the S&P 500 had already risen about 32% from its April lows. He pointed to U.S. inflation and payroll reports and a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting all due in the week ahead, along with earnings reports from megacaps including Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab. Europe's agreement follows U.S. pacts with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines made last week. Other countries were still scrambling to make deals ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline. Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials met in Stockholm on Monday for more than five hours of talks aimed at resolving longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a between the world's top two economies, seeking to extend a truce by three months. In currencies, the dollar rose against major currencies after the weekend's trade pact, with investors also looking to this week's U.S. and Japanese central bank meetings. The euro was down 1.27% at $1.1591. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.62% to 148.57. The dollar index <=USD>, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 1.07% to 98.65. In U.S. Treasuries, yields rose following the trade deal and U.S. bond auctions. The next U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting kicks off on Tuesday and the Fed is not expected to change interest rates this week. The central bank has been cautious on rate cuts as officials want to determine the impact of tariffs on inflation before making decisions. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.8 basis points to 4.414%, from 4.386% late on Friday while the 30-year bond yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.9616%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 1.1 basis points to 3.928%. In energy markets, oil prices rallied more than 2% after the U.S.-EU deal and Trump's announcement that he would set for Russia to end its war in Ukraine or face severe tariffs. U.S. crude settled up 2.38% or $1.55, at $66.71 per barrel while Brent finished at $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34%, or $1.60 on the day. In precious metals, gold fell to a near three-week low as the trade accord lifted the dollar and risk sentiment, while investors awaited fresh cues on rate policy from this week's Fed meeting. Spot gold fell 0.56% to $3,317.31 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.74% to $3,309.20 an ounce.
