Trump could end the Ukraine war, but a larger threat still looms
The China-Russia alliance has grown by leaps and bounds since Trump last met with Putin in 2019 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. China gave Russia the greenlight to try to take over all of Ukraine in 2022. China and Russia engage in high-stakes military exercises and tech deals. Both are sprinting ahead on new nuclear weapons and missiles. Don't forget Iran and North Korea, junior partners whose drones and troops have added to the bloodshed.
So while Trump looks Putin in the eye at Joint Base Elmendorf, he will also weigh how close Putin really is to China's Xi Jinping. It's a scary scenario.
China counts on Russia as a partner in global confrontation. "Grynch," NATO's new commander Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, United States Air Force, is widely known by his callsign from his days as an F-16 and F-22 pilot. He recently said he worries that China could synchronize an invasion of Taiwan with a new Russian attack on the Baltics or another part of Europe.
This is the big one – a potential two-front crisis with Russia and China, and allies around the world cowering at the implications.
Make no mistake. On the economic front, Russia is pretty much a vassal state to China. Everybody knows China buys 47% of Russia's oil. But Russia's war machine is also dependent on China. During the last four years of war, Putin's Russia has "refashioned its military, economic, and social structures to sustain what it describes as a long-term confrontation with the West," noted outgoing SACEUR Gen. Christopher Cavoli.
Putin can't afford to slow down the massive rearmament that is keeping Russia's economy afloat. Russia spends 40% of its federal budget on weapons and is on track to replace all the tanks, artillery, and equipment lost in Ukraine. Close ties with China are essential to keeping the factories running and preserving Putin's hold on power. China sells DJI drones for "civilian uses" to Russia. Russia also gets vital rare earth strategic minerals germanium and gallium from China. Worse, Russian imports of Chinese nitrocellulose, an explosives precursor, have soared from zero to 1300 tons in 2023.
Beyond supporting the Russians in the Ukraine war, China's military partners with Russia to expand its reach and master new tactics for global military operations. China has no recent combat experience (fortunately) so they are making up for it with a surging tempo of military exercises. Here, Russia is often the teacher. China-Russia joint military exercises went from just two in 2012 to 14 in 2024. From Aug.1-Aug. 5, Russia's navy ran submarine drills with China in the Sea of Japan. This time last summer, two Russian Tu-95 Tupolev bombers were patrolling off Alaska along with two Chinese H-6 nuclear-capable bombers. A recent report from Defense News suggests Russia was tutoring China's bomber force in nuclear triad operations.
Washington, DC has been slow to accept the full dangers wrought by Putin and Xi. Biden's distracted approach to foreign policy didn't help, but it all started to go wrong in the Obama administration. Remember when Obama took then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev out for cheeseburgers in Arlington, Virginia in 2010? Yes, the same Medvedev whose recent threatening remarks about nuclear "dead-hand" strikes prompted Trump to move two nuclear submarines to "appropriate positions" on Aug 1. The vaunted Russia "re-set" took place between Moscow and Beijing instead.
Coordinated U.S. military and economic power is essential to face down this pair. Bring on those secondary sanctions! Alaska is a strategic bastion filled with U.S. F-22s and F-35 stealth fighters, the Ground-Based Missile Defense interceptors at Fort Greeley, and more. Hence the summit is also an opportunity for Trump to remind Putin that the U.S. military won't be pushed around, even by the ugly duo of China and Russia.
Trump may bring the killing to an end in Ukraine. But his biggest challenge in making America safer still lies ahead.
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