UN warns 1.5°C global warming threshold likely to be breached by 2029
The United Nations warned on Wednesday, May 28, that there is a 70% chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5° Celsius international benchmark. The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency.
"We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," said the WMO's deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels – and to 1.5°C if possible. The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) – the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.
The more optimistic 1.5°C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions continue to rise.
Five-year outlook
The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres. The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average.
It says there is a 70% chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5°C. "This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5°C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth.
"I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100%" in the five-year outlook, he added. The WMO says there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024).
'Dangerous' level of warming
Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers. This year's climate is offering no respite.
Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C in some areas, the United Arab Emirates nearly 52°C and Pakistan was hit by deadly winds following an intense heatwave.
"We've already hit a dangerous level of warming," with recent "deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada," said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. "Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy."
Arctic warming is predicted to continue to outstrip the global average over the next five years, said the WMO. Sea ice predictions for March 2025-2029 suggest further reductions in the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.
Forecasts suggest South Asia will be wetter than average across the next five years. And precipitation patterns suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions over the Amazon.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sustainability Times
10 hours ago
- Sustainability Times
'Code Red for Humanity': World Set to Explode Past 1.5°C Heat Limit by 2030, UN Warns of Irreversible Chaos
IN A NUTSHELL 🔥 The World Meteorological Organization warns that the global temperature is likely to exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold in the next five years. warns that the global temperature is likely to exceed the critical in the next five years. 🌡️ The 1.5°C target, set in the Paris Agreement , is at risk due to continued increases in CO2 emissions . , is at risk due to continued increases in . 📈 There's a possibility of reaching 2°C warming , with serious implications for ecosystems and human health worldwide. , with serious implications for ecosystems and human health worldwide. 🌍 Urgent global action is required to mitigate climate change, focusing on reducing fossil fuel dependence and enhancing renewable energy sources. The recent report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlights a concerning trajectory for our planet's climate. The possibility of exceeding the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C (2.7°F) of warming within the next five years is alarmingly high. This projection, covering the period from 2025 to 2029, underscores the urgent need for global action. As we delve deeper into the implications of this report, it becomes clear that the climate challenges we face are not only imminent but also increasingly severe. What does this mean for our future, and how can we respond effectively? Understanding the 1.5°C Threshold The significance of the 1.5°C (2.7°F) warming threshold cannot be overstated. According to the WMO report, the years 2023 and 2024 were the hottest on record globally. This warming is measured against a baseline from the pre-industrial era, specifically 1850-1900, a time before widespread industrialization. This period marks a time when humans had not yet begun burning fossil fuels on an industrial scale, which emits greenhouse gases that are the primary drivers of climate change. The 1.5°C target was set optimistically by many nations in the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, as the years have passed, it has become increasingly clear that achieving this goal is challenging. The primary reason is the continued increase in CO2 emissions. Despite global awareness and agreements, emissions have not decreased as needed. Instead, they have continued to rise, casting doubt on our ability to limit warming effectively. The WMO report now suggests a 70% chance that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded by the late 2020s or early 2030s. This prediction is a stark reminder of the urgency of addressing climate change and highlights the need for immediate action to mitigate its impacts. The European CBAM : an attempt to regulate carbon imports The Possibility of 2°C Warming The WMO report offers a sobering outlook on the potential for even greater warming. It highlights a 1% chance that at least one of the next five years could see a temperature increase exceeding 2°C (3.6°F). This is a significant development, as it is the first time scientists have considered this possibility in their relatively short-term forecasts. While this probability may seem small, it represents a significant shift in climate science projections. Just a decade ago, the idea of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold was considered a distant concern. However, in 2024, this threshold was temporarily breached. Although this does not violate the Paris Agreement, which focuses on long-term averages, the trend suggests that permanent exceedance of this threshold is likely in the coming decades. Climate models, such as those from the European Copernicus program, estimate that the current average warming from 2015 to 2034 is about 1.44°C (2.59°F) above pre-industrial levels. This proximity to the 1.5°C mark indicates that further exceedances are imminent, and 2024 may have been a precursor to what we can expect in the next decade. 'Jurassic Tree Lives Again': 200-Million-Year-Old 'Dinosaur Tree' Successfully Bred in Stunning Scientific Breakthrough Implications of Increased Warming The potential for increased global warming carries significant implications for the planet. Each fraction of a degree of warming brings more intense heatwaves, droughts, extreme rainfall, and the accelerated melting of polar ice. These changes have far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, economies, and human health. The reliance on fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal continues to be a major barrier to reducing emissions. The WMO report criticizes this continued dependence, labeling it as an absolute folly. Despite advances in renewable energy technologies, the transition away from fossil fuels has been slow, driven by economic and political interests. As climate change intensifies, vulnerable communities are particularly at risk. The impacts of increased warming are disproportionately felt by those with the fewest resources to adapt. Addressing these disparities is essential in global climate strategies to ensure a just and equitable transition to a more sustainable future. '268 Olympic Pools Below Ground': World's Largest Hidden Reservoir Discovered in Shocking Subterranean Water Breakthrough Steps Toward a Sustainable Future In light of these predictions, it is clear that urgent action is required to curb emissions and mitigate climate change. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals must work together to implement solutions that reduce reliance on fossil fuels and promote sustainable practices. Investing in renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and protecting natural carbon sinks such as forests are critical steps in this process. International cooperation remains vital. Climate change knows no borders, and global challenges require global solutions. The Paris Agreement laid the groundwork for such cooperation, but more ambitious commitments and follow-through are needed to meet the challenges ahead. As we confront these climate challenges, we must ask ourselves: how can we accelerate the transition to a sustainable future, and what role can each of us play in making this vision a reality? Our author used artificial intelligence to enhance this article. Did you like it? 4.6/5 (23)
France 24
a day ago
- France 24
School's out: climate change keeps Pakistan students home
Searing heat, toxic smog and unusual cold snaps have all caused closures that are meant to spare children the health risks of learning in classrooms that are often overcrowded and lack basic cooling, heating or ventilation systems. In May, a nationwide heatwave saw temperatures up to seven degrees Celsius above normal, hitting 45C (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in Punjab and prompting several provinces to cut school hours or start summer holidays early. "The class becomes so hot that it feels like we are sitting in a brick kiln," said 17-year-old Hafiz Ehtesham outside an inner city Lahore school. "I don't even want to come to school." Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited resources for adaptation, and extreme weather is compounding an existing education crisis caused mostly by access and poverty. "Soon we will have major cognitive challenges because students are being impacted by extreme heat and extreme smog over long periods of time," said Lahore-based education activist Baela Raza Jamil. "The poorest are most vulnerable. But climate change is indeed a great leveller and the urban middle class is also affected." Pakistan's summers historically began in June, when temperatures hit the high 40s. But in the last five years, May has been similarly hot, according to the Meteorological Department. "During a power outage, I was sweating so much that the drops were falling off my forehead onto my desk," 15-year-old Jannat, a student in Lahore, told AFP. "A girl in my class had a nosebleed from the heat." Health versus learning Around a third of Pakistani school-age children -- over 26 million -- are out of school, according to government figures, one of the highest numbers in the world. And 65 percent of children are unable to read age-appropriate material by age 10. School closures affect almost every part of Pakistan, including the country's most populous province Punjab, which has the highest rates of school attendance. Classes closed for two weeks in November over air pollution, and another week in May because of heat. In the previous academic year, three weeks were lost in January to a cold snap and two weeks in May due to heat. Political unrest and cricket matches that closed roads meant more lost days. In Balochistan, Pakistan's poorest province, May heatwaves have prompted early summer vacations for three years running, while in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, school hours are regularly slashed. For authorities, the choice is often between sending children to school in potentially dangerous conditions or watching them fall behind. In southern Sindh province, authorities have resisted heat-related closures despite growing demands from parents. "It's hard for parents to send their children to school in this kind of weather," private school principal Sadiq Hussain told AFP in Karachi, adding that attendance drops by 25 percent in May. "Their physical and mental health is being affected," added Dost Mohammad Danish, general secretary of All Sindh Private Schools and Colleges Association. "Don't expect better scientists from Pakistan in the coming years." 'Everyone is suffering' Schools in Pakistan are overseen by provincial authorities, whose closure notices apply to all schools in a region, even when they are hundreds of kilometres (miles) apart and may be experiencing different conditions, or have different resources to cope. Teachers, parents and education experts want a rethink of school hours, exam timetables and vacations, with schools able to offer Saturday classes or split the school day to avoid the midday heat. Izza Farrakh, a senior education specialist at the World Bank, said climate change-related impacts are affecting attendance and learning outcomes. "Schools need to have flexibility in determining their academic calendar. It shouldn't be centralised," she said, adding that end-of-year exams usually taken in May could be replaced by regular assessments throughout the year. Adapting school buildings is also crucial. International development agencies have already equipped thousands of schools with solar panels, but many more of the country's 250,000 schools need help. Hundreds of climate-resilient schools funded by World Bank loans are being built in Sindh. They are elevated to withstand monsoon flooding, and fitted with solar panels for power and rooftop insulation to combat heat and cold. But in Pakistan's most impoverished villages, where education is a route out of generational poverty, parents still face tough choices. In rural Sukkur, the local school was among 27,000 damaged or destroyed by unprecedented 2022 floods. Children learn outside their half-collapsed school building, unprotected from the elements.
France 24
2 days ago
- France 24
Muslim pilgrims pray at Mount Arafat in hajj apex
Thousands of pilgrims were beginning to gather before dawn around the hill and the surrounding plain where the Prophet Mohammed is believed to have given his last sermon. While some arrived early to take advantage of the relatively cool morning, many pilgrims will remain for hours of prayers and Koran recitals until the evening in the most arduous portion of the hajj. After sunset they will head to Muzdalifah, halfway between Arafat and the sprawling tent city of Mina, where they will gather pebbles so they can perform the symbolic "stoning of the devil". "This is something that I used to see every year on the TV screen during hajj and I always thought: 'I wish I could be here'," said 33-year-old Ali from Pakistan, one of 1.5 million pilgrims who had arrived in Saudi Arabia for the pilgrimage. "I've been trying to get here... for the past 3 years," he added as he gazed at the mount. "I feel very blessed." Hundreds of pilgrims dressed in white dotted the mount itself, with many more at its foot praying or taking pictures. Earlier this week, Saudi authorities called on pilgrims to stay inside their tents between 10:00 am and 4:00 pm on Thursday, when the desert sun is at its harshest. Temperatures this year have already exceeded 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) as one of the world's largest annual religious gatherings, bringing together devotees from around the globe, kicked off earlier this week Officials have beefed up heat mitigation efforts aiming to avoid a repeat of last year's hajj, which saw 1,301 pilgrims die as temperatures reached 51.8C. "I came here early to (avoid) the sun and later I will pray inside my tent," said 54-year-old Adel Ismail, from Syria. To make this year's pilgrimage safer, authorities have expanded infrastructure, deployed thousands of extra personnel and relied on an arsenal of high-tech tools to help better manage crowds. Authorities have mobilised more than 40 government agencies and 250,000 officials, doubling their efforts against heat-related illness following the lethal heatwave of 2024. Shaded areas have been expanded by 50,000 square metres (12 acres), thousands more medics will be on standby, and more than 400 cooling units will be deployed, the hajj minister has told AFP. Authorities said a majority of the deaths in 2024 were among unregistered pilgrims who lacked access to amenities like air-conditioned tents and buses. This year, they have also cracked down on unregistered pilgrims looking to sneak into Mecca, relying on frequent raids, drone surveillance and a barrage of text alerts. Hajj permits are allocated to countries on a quota basis and distributed to individuals by a lottery. But even for those who can obtain them, the steep costs prompt many to attempt the hajj without a permit, even though they risk arrest and deportation if caught. Large crowds at the hajj have proved lethal in the past, most notably in 2015 when a stampede during the "stoning the devil" ritual in Mina killed up to 2,300 people in the deadliest hajj disaster. Saudi Arabia earns billions of dollars a year from the hajj, and the lesser pilgrimage known as umrah, undertaken at other times of the year.
