Bitcoin Hits Record $123,000 as U.S. Policy Momentum Fuels Rally
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The cryptocurrency later pulled back to trade around $119,745 but remained higher on the day. Market participants are closely watching developments in Washington, where the House of Representatives is expected to vote on a trio of crypto-focused bills: the Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Among them, the Genius Act would establish a federal framework for stablecoinssomething crypto advocates have sought for years.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has declared himself the crypto president, has voiced support for policies that favor the digital asset sector. His administrations backing has added momentum to the rally, which analysts say is now being driven by a combination of institutional inflows, regulatory optimism, and favorable political narratives.
Despite rising geopolitical risks and broader market unease driven by trade policy uncertainty, bitcoins surge has stood out. Some analysts, including eToros Simon Peters, point to dollar weakness as another factor contributing to bitcoins USD-denominated breakout, noting that the asset hasnt hit all-time highs in euro terms.
Bitcoins climb continues to underline its role as both a speculative vehicle and a policy-sensitive asset class; this weeks developments in Washington could determine whether the rally continues or runs out of steam.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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The Fed's interest-rate policy directly affects home builders' borrowing costs, which in turn affects how many new homes are built. The Fed's holdings of mortgage-backed securities also have an impact on mortgage rates. In theory, if the Fed buys up more mortgage-backed securities, that in turn could push mortgage rates down. But the Fed has not been doing this. It has been trying to trim its balance sheet by letting those securities mature and roll off. The reality is that lower mortgage rates wouldn't be enough to solve affordability issues, experts told MarketWatch. While lower rates might make it more affordable to buy a home with a mortgage, the housing market's affordability crisis is also fueled by high home prices. Those rising prices are driven by a mismatch between supply and demand. Even as home sales are running at the slowest pace in 30 years, home prices continue to reach record highs. The median price of an existing home sold this June was $435,300. Putting aside pandemic boom towns and the Sun Belt, where builders have been able to boost construction of new homes, most markets are still undersupplied. The pace of home building is still far below where it was two decades ago, prior to the Great Recession, and has not recovered fully. That's in spite of demand skyrocketing over the years across most markets. Even current homeowners, who have benefited from significant home-price appreciation, face a tough market. Many bought their homes when both mortgage rates and home prices were significantly lower. To sell now would mean confronting a market that has become much more expensive — and that doesn't incentivize them to move. Hence, 'rate cuts alone aren't enough,' Amy Nixon, a housing economist and a contributor at MacroEdge Research, noted in a post on X. 'We need lower prices and consistently higher wages,' she wrote. 'Some regions still need more inventory too.' For a typical house to become affordable to a buyer, the 30-year mortgage rate would need to drop to an 'unrealistic' 4.43%, according to a recent report by the real-estate platform Zillow ZG. The last time the 30-year rate was at that level was in March 2022. In response to a request for comment, a White House spokesperson said the Trump administration's efforts to address housing affordability aren't focused only on interest rates. 'The Trump administration's push to restore the American Dream of homeownership goes beyond interest rates,' spokesperson Kush Desai told MarketWatch. 'Rapid deregulation to expand new home construction, historic working-class tax relief through The One Big Beautiful Bill, and America First trade deals that level the playing field for American workers reflect the Administration's two-pronged approach of cutting costs while raising wages for everyday Americans.' The other option to make housing more affordable is for home prices to fall. But that's equally unrealistic, according to Zillow. 'If rates and other factors held steady, home values would need to drop 18% for the typical home to be affordable for a median-income family,' the company said. And falling home prices is not necessarily a positive trend. 'The bulk of people in the U.S. don't have massive equity-market portfolios,' James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, previously told MarketWatch. 'The bulk of people's wealth is overwhelmingly in their property and their pension fund as well.' Most middle-income families pay more attention to the value of their home than the value of their stock-market portfolio, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics MCO, told MarketWatch. So when home prices fall or are poised to fall, Knightley said, 'I am a little bit nervous' that those declines could negatively hurt consumers' outlook regarding the economy and their interest in spending. And that could start to weigh down the U.S. economy. 'We need a multifaceted all-of-government approach to addressing a housing-affordability crisis, which has become mainstreamed across America,' Dworkin said. 'We need to build more housing, and we need to build housing that's affordable to first-time homebuyers. But we need to do it in a way that doesn't depreciate home prices.' Two bills recently introduced in Congress seek to address housing affordability. One would eliminate capital-gains taxes on home sales; another would try to boost new-home construction by cutting red tape. 'We didn't get into this because of one policy, and we're not going to get out of this because of one policy,' Dworkin added. Read more: Republicans and Democrats are joining forces to fix America's housing affordability crisis. Here's what's in their plan. So what could Powell do at this point to address the stagnant housing market? 'At this point, it would be best for housing markets if the Fed meets their mandates: conducting monetary policy in a manner that results in price stability and maximum employment,' the MBA's Fratantoni said. 'If the Fed gets monetary policy right over time, longer-term rates like mortgage rates will be lower and more stable on average,' he added. And 'that would benefit housing affordability.' Jim Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told MarketWatch in an April interview that he was 'a little bit pessimistic about housing.' 'I think it has gotten quite a ways away from a steady state. And it's going to take a long time [to fix because] it's a slow-moving market. We just didn't build enough houses after the global financial crisis,' he said. 'It is going to take a long time to come back into equilibrium.' What personal-finance issues would you like to see covered in MarketWatch? 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