How India is iron-cladding defences in a rapidly volatile world
India's geopolitical strategy in 2025 reflects a complex balancing act as it navigates its primary rivalry with China, manages cross-border tensions with Pakistan and maintains a critical partnership with Russia, according to the US Defense Intelligence Agency's (DIA) Worldwide Threat Assessment.Despite a volatile military standoff with Pakistan after Operation Sindoor, India continues to prioritise its economic and defence objectives through ties with Russia, viewing the relationship as a counterweight to the deepening Russia-China alignment.advertisementThe DIA notes that under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has scaled back procurement of Russian-origin military equipment but remains reliant on Russian spare parts to sustain its extensive inventory of tanks and fighter aircraft. These systems form the backbone of India's military, essential for countering threats from both China and Pakistan.India's dependence on Russian technology was underscored by its enthusiasm for the S-400 air defence system, dubbed the 'Sudarshan Chakra'. Following a $5.43 billion deal in 2018 for five units, the first S-400 system was deployed in Punjab in 2021 to counter aerial threats from both neighbours. With three units delivered, India is expected to press Russia for the final two.
Tensions with Pakistan flared up after the terror attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam. India responded with missile strikes on terrorism-related infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), triggering a 100-hour military face-off over three days. Both sides exchanged missiles, drones, loitering munitions and heavy artillery fire before agreeing to a ceasefire on May 10.advertisementNotably, Pakistan's military response relied heavily on Chinese-supplied platforms, raising concerns about Beijing's proxy involvement in the conflict. Major General Ashok Kumar, director general at the defence ministry-affiliated think-tank Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, says that China offered Pakistan air defence and satellite support during the recent clash. He said that while China has supported Pakistan in all conflicts with India after 1963, when it got Shaksgam Valley from Pakistan, the support had been marginal.'It was a total turnaround since the Pahalgam terrorist strike, wherein the Chinese establishment has outright supported Pakistan. Support in terms of air defence radars, imageries and such other resources was made available,' Maj. Gen. Kumar said.According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan, despite a defence budget one-tenth the size of India's, ranked as the world's fifth-largest arms importer from 2020-2024, sourcing 81 per cent of its arms from China, including fighter aircraft, frigates and air defence systems.China, which directs 63 per cent of its arms exports to Pakistan, also supports its ally through technology transfers, co-development and co-production. However, military experts warn that Pakistan's growing reliance on Chinese systems raises concerns about their reliability in high-intensity conflicts and the risks of over-dependence on a single supplier.advertisementThe Worldwide Threat Assessment for 2025 has underlined that India is sharply focused on countering China as its primary adversary while treating Pakistan as a secondary even as both adversaries indirectly collaborated in the May offensive.On the China front, India reached an agreement last October to disengage forces from two contested positions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. While this reduced tensions lingering since the deadly 2020 clash in Galwan Valley, the longstanding border demarcation dispute remains unresolved.To counter Chinese influence and bolster its global leadership, India is intensifying defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through joint exercises, training, arms sales and information sharing. It has also ramped up trilateral engagement in the Indo-Pacific and remains active in multilateral forums like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN.Domestically, New Delhi's Make in India initiative continues to drive modernisation of its defence industry, aiming to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities and enhance military capabilities. In 2024, India tested the nuclear-capable Agni-I Prime medium-range ballistic missile and the Agni-V with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. It also commissioned its second nuclear-powered submarine, strengthening its nuclear triad and deterrence capabilities against adversaries.advertisementAs India navigates this intricate strategic landscape, its focus remains clear: balancing regional threats, deepening global partnerships, and building a self-reliant defence ecosystem to secure its place as a leading power in an increasingly volatile world.Subscribe to India Today MagazineTune InMust Watch
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