Brad Waters' horses to follow from Caulfield on Saturday
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FIVE TO FOLLOW:
SHYSTAR (1.2 length 3rd of 8, Race 1): Shystar stepped out for her second run this time in and did well to be beaten just over a length by unbeaten filly Ole Dancers. The Phillip Stokes-trained Shystar pushed forward raced handy to the speed and gave something in the straight before proving no match for the first two. She did well on the inside, which was later shown to be against the pattern of the day. There's a win in her soon.
GALA QUEEN (1.7-length 5th of 10, Race 2): Another runner from the Phillip Stokes stable that showed she was in for a good preparation with her first-up fifth at Caulfield. Gala Queen settled midfield but had a bit of trouble getting clear running on a couple of occasions in the straight before making ground in the last 100m. She should have placed and can improve off that pleasing first-up run.
VERONA RUPES (1.2-length 2nd of 16, Race 4): The Patrick and Michelle Payne-trained Verona Rupes is a promising young stayer learning his craft and gave a great sight when leading until the last 75m in first crack at 2400m. Jockey Luke Cartwright rated him well but Verona Rupes showed heart to comfortably beat all but the winner Stylish Secret. Verona Rupes turns four at the end of the week and could find himself in an easier race with a light weight in the coming weeks. He can break through soon.
SUN SETTING (0.86-length 4th of 11 Race 6): It could be argued the Matt Laurie-trained Sun Setting should have won at Caulfield on Saturday. What is beyond argument is the fact she was desperately unlucky when badly held up for most of the straight before closing late to get within a length of the winner. The stewards report noted Sun Setting was held up from the 500m until the 100m, costing her any winning chance.
NEWLOOK (1.9 length 7th of 11, Race 7): A most encouraging local debut from the Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young-trained import. He won his last three starts over longer trips in France before his transfer to Australia where he won a Wangaratta trial on July 7. He started his local campaign over 1600m, over which he has never raced, getting back in the field before working home solidly to be beaten less than two lengths, indicating Busuttin and Young have something to work with.
PLEASE FORGIVE:
VERDOUX (0.5-length 2nd of 10, Race 2): The lightly-raced Verdoux started favourite and gave a good sight before going down by a half-length behind Pop Award. Verdoux was stepping up in class at Caulfield but was slowly away and raced keenly in the early and middle stages under jockey Blake Shinn. Verdoux can repay loyal punters next time out.
JIMMY THE BEAR (0.1-length 2nd of 5, Race 3): Jimmy The Bear was a beaten odds-on favourite but tried his heart out in his narrow defeat in the VOBIS Gold Stayers. He gave the winner Dictionary 2kg and just couldn't get past the winner without the blinkers, which were removed for this run. He also pulled up with a touch of exercise induced pulmonary haemorrhage, which could have affected his performance.
EARLSWOOD (3.8-length 11th of 11, Race 7): Earlswood failed to beat a runner home as a $5.50 chance but his performance can be forgiven. Despite finishing last, Earlswood was beaten less than four lengths but a later examination revealed he pulled up lame in his near foreleg.
STEWARDS SAY:
CHERISH ME (Sixth Race 1) – Rider Craig Williams reported the filly raced greenly. Held up from the 400m to the 250m.
MOONHAVEN (Fourth Race 2) – Slow to begin & held up for clear running from the 200m to the 100m.
LUNA CAT (Third Race 2) – Held up for clear running from the 500m until near the 200m.
Jockey Ben Melham suspended for seven meetings for using the whip twice more than allowed before the 100m on Jimmy The Bear in Race 3.
AMERICAN WOLF (11th Race 4) – Pulled up lame in the near foreleg.
SALSA FELLOW (late scratching from Race 5) – Scratched after being involved in a float accident on the way to Caulfield.
ELECTRIC TOMMY (8th Race 5) – Slow recovery.
AREYOUREADYFORIT (late scratching from Race 6) – Scratched after being involved in a float accident on the way to Caulfield.
KEENI (8th Race 6) – Held up in the last 200m & unable to be fully tested in the straight.
BARAQIEL – Late scratching from Race 8 after being deemed to be lame in the near foreleg.
KEEP YOUR COOL (11th Race 9) – Lame near foreleg.
TRUE TO FORM (13th Race 9) – Lame near foreleg & bilaterally lame behind.
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Skinner's famous 'Skinner box' experiments on rats and pigeons nearly in the first half of last century. 'This isn't just content, it's behavioural modelling,' Ms Coalter said. 'These influencers are walking reinforcement schedules. From a behaviourist perspective, those accounts are textbook examples of what's called operant conditioning.' The key element of operant conditioning — a concept in behavioural psychology pioneered by Skinner — is the randomness of rewards. Just like a pokie player never knows when they'll hit a feature, the 'doomscrolling' social media user is waiting for that next interesting post to pop up on their feed. 'That unpredictability drives engagement,' Ms Coalter said. 'It's the same old reinforcement loop under a new skin. That same schedule drives both pokies and compulsive social media use. Scrolling becomes the cue, gambling becomes the behaviour — cue, behaviour, reward loop. When we're young we might not be able to gamble yet, that's OK, it's all being cued up for us.' She added, 'We're watching a whole generation get conditioned into gambling the way they were conditioned into scrolling.' From finely tuned 'return rate' algorithms and 'losses disguised as wins' to physiological stimuli like colourful characters, upbeat jingles and even the smell of the gaming room itself, the pokies industry has turned the art of separating punters from their cash into an exact science. '[Electronic gambling machine] design very successfully employ psychological principals to maximise users' bet sizes and machine usage,' Monash University gambling researcher Dr Charles Livingstone wrote in a 2017 policy paper. 'These characteristics have the effect of increasing the addictive potential of EGMs.' But Ms Coalter said sports betting apps and other types of gambling popular with teens could be equally harmful. 'Pokies [are designed] to extract as much as possible within a short amount of time,' she said. 'When it comes to other types of gambling, those reinforcements are still at play, just timed differently. Modern sports betting and apps, that's just like a pokie in your pocket.' She added that for impressionable young teens, watching their favourite influencer gambling online was a powerful 'social learning' tool. 'The ones watching those getting rewards with money, attention, with clout, that's like vicarious reinforcement,' she said. 'It's pretty powerful. The reward might not be money, it's often the emotional stimulation.' Indeed, she noted at least part of the appeal was watching influencers lose eye-watering amounts. 'You've got these influencers saying things like, 'I lost $10,000 last night but it's part of the game,' and young people nodding along in the comments,' Ms Coalter said. 'They're not just influencers, they're behaviour shapers. We're watching what often is referred to as disordered gambling behaviour get rebranded as content. That's not informed choice, that's learnt behaviour. We didn't let tobacco influencers target kids but that's essentially what's being done at the moment.' Dr Ahmed agreed that the glamorisation of gambling losses was insidious. 'Underneath that is 'I can afford to lose that',' he said. 'It's a bit like going off a big jump with your mountain bike. There's an element of flexing, I think males in particular can be attracted to that.' More broadly, Dr Ahmed said teens increasingly viewed the online environment as a place to rebel, making gambling 'quite attractive on that front because it does feel a bit naughty'. He said it was 'not dissimilar' to the appeal of controversial influencer Andrew Tate. 'Tate will have some misogynistic idea but wrapped up in a lifestyle that's attractive for a lot of young men — great body, hot women, going on nice holidays,' he said. 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